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Who will win Jammu? | 2014 Assembly elections | | Neha
JAMMU, July 30: Battle lines in Kashmir are clearly drawn. It would be the PDP vs the NC in the Valley. The Congress and a few other marginal political players are also there in the Valley, but the contest would be mainly between the PDP and the NC. And everyone knows who will win and who will lose in Kashmir. However, it is Jammu province where the picture is not yet clear. There are several political actors who will test the political waters in the coming assembly elections. There is the upbeat BJP, which in 2008 won 11 seats, and which now asserts that it would sweep the Jammu province. Its claim is that it would win a minimum of 30 seats in Jammu province. It has declared 44+ as its goal. Then there is the equally upbeat PDP, which has already announced the names of several party candidates. In fact, it has started its campaign both in Kashmir and Jammu in right earnest and has claimed that it would do exceptionally well in Jammu province as well, particularly in the constituencies where the NC and the Congress have pockets of influence. Doda, Ramban, Kishtwar, Poonch and Rajouri districts are its main targets and these districts elect 13 members to the assembly. The NC, which will go to the polls separately, has also been targeting the constituencies which the PDP has been targeting and also announced names of some of the candidates. The party leadership has been asserting that the NC this time would increase its tally in Jammu province by at least a dozen seats. It has been claiming that - apart from retaining the seats it at present represents in the assembly - the constituencies like Madh, Gandhi Nagar, Akhnoor, Nagrota and Bani will go the NC way. As for the Congress, its leadership is saying that it would not only retain control over all the 13 constituencies it won in Jammu province in 2008, but would also capture constituencies like Suchetgarh, RS Pura, Bishnah, Kathua, Bani, Samba, Nowshera, Reasi and Jammu East. In other words, it has been claiming that its tally this time could be between 20 and 22. The claims of the Congress and the NC appear quite tall. Political pundits say that the Congress and the NC have little or no chance in Jammu province this time as much water has flown down the rivers Chenab and Tawi. The emergence of Narendra Modi as a national leader and formation of the BJP-led NDA government at the centre has changed the whole scenario in Jammu province, many political pundits have said. They have also opined that it would be suicidal to undermine the PDP in Jammu province. There are two other political players in Jammu province. They are the Panthers Party (JKNPP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The BSP, like in the past, is likely to go alone in the election. The Scheduled caste communities constitute a big chunk of electorate in this province and can determine the election outcome in most of the constituencies, yet it is not a force to reckon with. It is a divided house and it has no credible face who could fetch votes for the party. The JKNPP is a factor in two-three constituencies, but there are reports that its leadership is in touch with the BJP leadership. One view is that there could be a pre-poll alliance between the two parties. It is, however, a fact that most of the BJP leaders and cadres do not want the party high command to enter into any kind of understanding with the JKNPP. Two days ago, JKNPP MLA Harsh dev Singh met with Avinash Rai Khana, in-charge J&K BJP, and reportedly discussed with him how could the two parties work together to avoid split in the pro-Jammu votes. However, full details of what transoired between them are not in the public domain. Talks are also on between the sitting JSM MLA Ashwini Sharma and the PDP leadership and if some insiders are to be believed, Sharma will merge the JSM with the BJP and re-seek elections from the Bishnah assembly constituency. He has been representing this constituency since 2002. This is the current election scene in Jammu province. It would be interesting to see what ultimately happens. But one thing is clear: Only that party would perform well that takes up the Jammu cause in a big way and holds out a categorical commitment that it, if voted to power, would dispense justice to it. Jammu has several grievances and its main grievance is that it has little or no say in the governance of the state, notwithstanding the fact that it always had sufficient ministers in the government. Their complaint all along was, and is, that the ministers from Jammu never worked for them and that they played the Kashmiri games to remain in the good books of the Kashmiri rulers. |
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