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Amit Shah likely to achieve Mission 44 + for BJP
Cong, PDP, NC keep fingers crossed
Bashir Assad8/22/2014 11:01:48 AM

SRINAGAR, Aug 21: BJP president Amit Shah's Mission Kashmir has started haunting Kashmiri politicians and political leaders across the board. It is feared that in Assembly Elections 2014, BJP will disrupt the power paradigm in the state.
The worry of the state's political elite is that the BJP game-planner Amit Shah can be a game-changer where the current political scenario in Jammu and Kashmir is concerned.
The plan, say BJP insiders, is to wipe out the disarrayed Congress in Jammu region on one side, and on the other hand, secure a foothold in the Muslim-dominated Kashmir valley. This will be particularly seen in the pockets where the Kashmiri Pandits have a presence. These segments include Habbakadal, Khanyar and Amirakadal in Srinagar district, Ganderbal in Ganderbal district, Kulgam Assembly segment in Kulgam district, Tral in Pulwama district and Sopore in Baramulla district. These are the pockets where voter turnout among Muslims is below 20 per cent because of the boycott calls given by separatist leaders. While the Pandits constitute only about 15 per cent of the total population, their voting patterns may decide electoral fortunes here. The BJP's tally, political pundits in the state say, will be further strengthened by the gains it is likely to make in the Leh, Ladakh and Kargil region.
Interestingly, the state unit of Congress seems to have accepted defeat to the overwhelming BJP onslaught much before the state goes to polls. The impact of the Modi Government's decision to suspend the dialogue process with Pakistan in protest against the Pak envoy's meetings with Kashmiri separatist leaders is tremendous in the state. A senior Congress leader who is holding a constitutional portfolio in the Government remarked the impact is going to be so huge that the Congress is likely to draw a blank in the entire Jammu region. The magic number to form the Government in J&K is 44 seats in the Assembly. The Jammu region brings 37 representatives to the state Assembly. According to current analysis, BJP may sweep as many as 30-32 of these seats. Add to this the three seats that BJP hopes to corner in the Ladakh region, and the BJP tally reaches 35. Meanwhile, BJP is also consolidating its position in eight Assembly segments of Kashmir valley. If the saffron party is able to win some seats in the Valley in alliance with smaller groups, this may give it the winning tally in the Assembly.
The principal opposition, PDP, which was upbeat after winning all the three Lok Sabha seats in Kashmir, is now facing a confusing situation. Political observers say that Amit Shah, who has been credited for the landslide victory of BJP in Uttar Pradesh, has definite and clear plans for marching BJP to victory in the J&K Assembly. This has led to consternation in both the PDP and NC camps.
Observers say Amit Shah's election plan is to reach out to the Kashmiri Pandit migrants across the country. For this purpose, hundreds of BJP and RSS activists are registering the votes of Kashmiri pandits, so that they can exercise their franchise at the time of polls in the Valley. Significantly, an important part of the BJP plan is to attract as many Kashmiri Muslims as they can to strengthen their claim to form Government in the state.
Renowned political commentator and former Vice Chancellor of Islamic University of Science and Technology Siddiq Wahid said he was surprised to hear Modi hitting out at Pakistan during his recent visit to Leh, where China's repeated incursions are a known factor. "Leaving out China and focusing on Pakistan while speaking at Leh was part of Modi's deliberate strategy to polarize votes in the region in BJP's favour," said Wahid.
Reliable sources say that hand-picked emissaries of Amit Shah are in constant touch with many political leaders of Kashmir, which include Sajad Gani Lone of People's Conference, and some prominent civil society members. Pertinently, many prominent political activists of Congress, NC and PDP have already joined BJP, bolstering the poll prospects of the saffron party.
Reportedly, a group of eminent Kashmiri Muslims from the Valley are all set to join BJP on August 24. This is upsetting for the PDP and NC camps. A senior PDP leader was quoted as having said at the chances of PDP emerging as the single largest party in the J&K Assembly appear to be slim now.
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