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| Election may throw up hung House in J&K | | |
Now that the BJP is interested in going
alone in the ensuing Assembly election
in Jammu and Kashmir the chances for the poll to throw up a hung House have further increased.What interests the voters and political bigwigs is the role the BJP will play in the political scenario in Jammu and Kashmir.Yes,there cannot be any doubt about BJP's poor performance in the Kashmir valley where it is making a serious attempt at registering its presence and influence.And if the BJP wins five of the 46 seats in the Kashmir valley it will not be short of a miracle.However,the BJP leaders in New Delhi and in Jammu and Kashmir are optimistic about its good performance in the Valley.Yes,it is placed on a sound wicket as far as the region of Jammu is concerned.That is one of the reasons for the BJP to field its candidates from all the 87 constituencies in the state.Right from 2002 election the Congress has played a vital role in the formation of the Government in Jammu and Kashmir.Even with 20 seats in the 2002 election the Congress joined hands with the PDP to form a coalition Government in the state.The coalition roved a success and the Government would have completed its six-year term had not the row over diversion of land to the Amarnath Shrine Board for building facilities for pilgrims at Baltal base cut short the life span of the PDP-Congress coalition rule.And in 2008 the Congress again played the role of a Government maker when with 17 seats it formed a coalition Government in alliance with the National Conference which had won 28 seats in the Assembly.
And the main interest in the ensuing Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir is limited to three things.What will be the polling percentage ? Will the ensuing election be free and fair ?Will the election remain incident free or militants trigger violence that could force majority of voters to remain indoors on the days of polling ?And the third interest is whether the Congress will continue to play the role of a Government maker or the role will be played by the BJP ? One thing is certain the PDP and the NC may win a large number of seats which would warrant formation of the coalition Government with either the NC or with the PDP.Since the chances for the PDP and the NC to form a coalition Government are bleak it may lead either the Congress or the BJP to play the role of a Government maker.Those who believe that here cannot be any alliance between the NC and the BJP,if the latter wins 15 to 18 seats,need to remember that the NC had supported the BJP led NDA Government in the centre in 2000.Those who believe that the PDP can have no alliance with the BJP need to take into account the poor performance of the Congress as it shared power with the NC during the last over five and a half years.
This way the coalition rule,that the state may be in for after the election,may depend on the performance of the BJP and the Congress.The Congress seems to have suffered a major vote bank erosion in the Kashmir valley and in the Jammu region.That the Congress has not been in an easy situation in the Valley since 1996 and in 2002 and 2008 election the Congress had to remain content with winning three to five seats in Kashmir.It performed well in both 2002 and 2008 elections in the Jammu region.That the Congress has suffered erosion in the region of Jammu is indicated by losing both the Lok Sabha seats from the region.That the BJP's fortune is on the rise is indicated by the way it won all the three Lok Sabha seats,for the first time,from the regions of Ladakh and Jammu.That the BJP can be serious contender for sharing power with either the NC or the PDP will depend on its performance in the 37 Assembly constituencies in the Jammu region.If it manages to win 15 seats in the Jammu region and captures three to five from the valley it may dethrone the Congress to share power either with the PDP or with the NC.However,nothing definite is in sight because it depends on the stature and integrity of candidates that are fielded by various parties and by the percentage of polling. |
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