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Gupta's rebellion could disturb BJP's applecart in Udhampur
11/18/2014 12:51:50 AM

Bivek Mathur
Early Times Report
JAMMU, Nov 17: While the BJP High Command has reposed faith in the abilities of Pawan Khajuria and fielded him as party candidate from Udhampur, aspirant Pawan Gupta's decision to contest as independent candidate could put official BJP nominee into dock.
According to political analysts, if results of previous Legislative Assembly elections are taken into consideration, Pawan Gupta's rebellion may create stumbling block for the BJP to wrest this prestigious seat from its present incumbent Balwant Singh Mankotia who in the past two elections had trounced BJP candidate.
Pawan Gupta who contested on BJP ticket bagged a total of 14,727 votes in 2002 Legislative Assembly elections (LA) against 24,679 votes bagged by Balwant Singh Mankotia of National Panthers Party (NPP). Similarly in the 2008 Legislative Assembly elections, Pawan Gupta bagged 22494 votes against 25259 votes bagged by NPP candidate Balwant Singh Mankotia again. As far as the then BJP candidate Pawan Gupta is concerned, he polled 7000 votes more than his previous tally of 2002 Assembly elections.
Moreover, in 2002 elections, it was anti-incumbency against Pawan Gupta's father Shiv Charan Gupta owing to which he bagged about 10,000 votes less than Balwant Singh Mankotia i.e. 14727 votes of Gupta and 24679 of Mankotia but in 2008 Assembly elections, Pawan Gupta's graph witnessed a steep rise in the percentage of votes bagged and was declared runner-up with just a low margin of 2765 votes i.e. 3.89% of the total votes.
Considering all these factors, all that BJP is dependent upon to perform better is one rally of its star campaigner and Prime Minister Narendra Modi but again mobilizing rural voters who are Panthers loyalists would be difficult for the District Cadre of BJP which is working least on ground and depending more on Modi wave. Political watchers presume that the voting share of BJP will be cut both by expected rural vote of B S Mankotia and unexpected urban vote of Pawan Gupta which ultimately will give an edge to JKNPP's candidate B S Mankotia.
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