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| Post-poll scene in J&K may be more interesting than ongoing poll process | | | Early Times Report
Jammu, Dec 13: Assuming that the ongoing Assembly election throws up a hung House what shape the coalition rule may assume? Will it be the Congress-NC coalition Government, a repeat of 2008 experiment? Will it be a congress-PDP coalition rule, a repeat of the 2002 experiment? Will it be the BJP-NC or BJP-PDP coalition Government?
These questions have started surfacing in Jammu and Kashmir even after the leadership of the Congress, the NC and the PDP claim that they would get comfortable majority to run the Government on its own. People and political leaders have not yet dubbed the BJP's ambition of achieving +44 mission as mere wishful thinking.
Since 2002 elections the Congress has enjoyed the role of a Government maker. In 2002 it forged an alliance with the PDP to form the first coalition Government in the state despite the fact that the Congress had won 20 seats and the PDP 16. In 2008 the Congress, with 17 seats, opted for an alliance with the National Conference which had won 28 seats and this coalition rule completed its six-year tenure despite occasional ideological and administrative conflicts.
Well the Congress can again act as a Government maker provided it wins more than 15 seats. And critics of the Congress, including the National Conference do foresee Congress performing poorly because of anti-incumbency factor. Hence the NC and the PDP have to explore the possibility of forging an alliance with a new political party or groups of small parties for forming the Government.
One thing is definite. There cannot be any alliance between the NC and the PDP because the two are sworn political foes. The possibility of NC-PDP alliance is as bleak as that of the Congress and the BJP. They are two parallel lines that do not meet even on the horizon.
Again basing on assumptions will the BJP, if it falls short of 10 to 12 seats for forming the Government on its own, frame an alliance either with the PDP or with the NC. Well the PDP may not accept any offer for such an alliance because that would give credibility to the repeated statements of Dr Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah in which the two have alleged that the PDP has been the creation of the BJP.
This leave only one option for the BJP. The BJP may have to seek support from smaller parties, including some independents and from the Peoples' Conference. But this can be possible if independents and the Peoples' Conference candidates win between 10 and 12 seats. In the absence of such a possibility the BJP may have to seek support from the National Conference. Will the NC oblige the BJP? Yes. Why not? But there is one hitch the PDP leadership may paint the NC in black colours once the NC framed an alliance with the BJP. And the NC leadership may not miss the opportunity which could prevent the PDP from either regaining power or for sharing power.
In case no single party gets full mandate for forming the Government on its own the seat sharing has been so complex that framing alliances could become difficult what will be the ultimate results ? Either the state may have to face another election or the elected legislators may be forced to opt for some sort of arrangement which could avert fresh elections and help the state in the formation of a coalition Government.
The NC could have opted for an alliance with the Congress but during the ongoing pre-poll campaign the two have washed the dirty linen in public. This mud slinging game does not leave any scope for the NC to join hands with the Congress for forming the Government. But in politics there cannot be either permanent enemies or permanent friends. In politics equations keep on changing except in case of Congress and the BJP and about the NC and the PDP.
The Congress leaders say that the party will get comfortable majority in the House to form the Government on its own. The PDP and the NC repeat the same. The BJP is sure to achieve +44 mission. If it is the case who is to lose the election then? Only the voters can answer this question.
Well the NC and the PDP need to realize that the BJP is no longer an untouchable political entity because there has been a loud support of Muslims for the party. If either the PDP or the NC forge an alliance with the BJP for forming the Government it could contribute to the dilution of the level of regional discrimination. It could promote communal amity and brotherhood.
Well what shape the coalition rule will assume in Jammu and Kashmir? It depends on the poll results. May be voters have voted for a change and cast their votes in favour of a particular party so that the state has strong Government that believes in governance..
Still one does foresee the need for an alliance between the party that has won majority of seats from the valley and the one that has bagged majority of seats from the region of Jammu. If the ongoing poll process has been interesting, the bigger interest lies in the post poll results. |
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