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| If Govt formed or not Mehbooba is on advantageous position | | |
Whether the coalition Government
is formed in Jammu and Kashmir or
the Governor's rule completes its six-month tenure Mehbooba Mufti and her PDP are at advantageous position compared to the BJP. If the Government is formed Mehbooba may be in a position to extract some concessions from New Delhi which could help her to regain the ground that the PDP had lost during the last 11 months. If Mehooba declines to form the Government and the Assembly gets dissolved to be followed by fresh elections again the PDP can be a better placed party in comparison to the BJP. Yes, the PDP has lost much of its political weight because of forging an alliance with the BJP and on account of poor governance the coalition could deliver during the last 10 months. But when compared to the BJP the PDP has not been totally emaciated that it lacks will and vigour to stage a comeback but the PDP cannot repeat its 2014 performance when it had won 28 seats in the Assembly nor can it expect to win a simple majority. More for its poor performance than joining hands with the BJP the PDP cannot dream of emerging as the single largest party in the new Assembly. But the fate of the BJP can be worse than the PDP if the Government is not formed. The BJP leaders in the state feel the need for securing another chance for showing their results in case the coalition Government was formed with the BJP.
If the Government is not formed before the Assembly is dissolved the BJP may suffer worst ever defeat in the Assembly polls. The possibilities for the BJP to repeat the 2014 performance when it won 25 seats, all from the region of Jammu, are quite bleak. It would be a miracle for the party if it is able to win 10 seats. This time, whenever the elections are held, Modi wave is so weak that it cannot defeat a redoubtable Raman Bhalla and motivate people to vote for Kavinder Gupta of the BJP. Example of this type are at galore. And it may not be easy for PDP to defeat redoubtable Abdul Rahim Rather who has surpassed all his colleagues in the NC by winning from 1977 to 2008. Mufti Mohd. Sayeed had a mission. He wanted to forge an alliance with the BJP that had been voted to power at the Centre and had won 25 seats in the Jammu region during the 2014 Assembly polls only for two reasons. First, he wanted centre to open strings of its purse that could help the state to implement various development project that could resolve the problems of poverty, unemployment and increase power generation. Secondly, he joined hands with the BJP, which is simply a Jammu centric party, to promote regional balance. And above all the 25 seats had motivated Mufti to achieve the 44 magic figure for forming the Government when Sajjad Lone's Peoples' Conference had with three seats decided to support the BJP.
However, Mehbooba Mufti is not as simple as her father used to be. She does not bother even if she has to surrender the right of forming the Government despite the fact that Governor, N.N. Vohra had made an officer twice, not once, to her and to the BJP. She possibly knows that BJP is more keen to form the Government and hence she wants to secure some assurances on AFSPA revocation from two districts, reopening of channels of dialogue by the Centre with the Kashmiri separatists that stand stalled since 2006 and may be wishing to run the Government without the help of a Deputy Chief Minister. She should know that her father, Mufti Mohd. Sayeed, had followed the recommendations of Gajendragadkar committee in letter and spirit. The Committee has suggested that if the Chief Minister belonged to Kashmir a Jammu leader should serve as Deputy Chief Minister. Hence between 2002 and 2005 when Mufti Sayeed headed the coalition Government Mangat Ram Sharma was the Deputy Chief Minister and later in March 2015 when Mufti Sayeed headed a coalition Government Dr Nirmal Singh was installed as Deputy Chief Minister. The practice was followed by Ghulam Nabi Azad, Dr Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah. Well Mehbooba may not be keen to do away with the post of Deputy Chief Minister but she is eager to get AFSPA revoked from two districts which would allow her a chance to achieve what her predecessors, including Omar Abdullah, Mufti Sayeed and Farooq Abdullah, could not achieve. This can help enlarge her political stature and enable the PDP to regain the ground it had lost during the last eight months. And if the BJP concedes all the political demands of Mehbooba it would be a surrender that could cost the BJP heavily in future. |
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