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India can squeeze water but can't seek abrogation of Treaty
9/27/2016 10:51:08 PM
The 1960 Indus Water Treaty, under
which Pakistan enjoys the liberty of
using water from the Indus,the Jehlum and the Chenab cannot be revoked unilaterally by India. In fact the World Bank mediated the treaty between India and Pakistan and only the World Bank can allow India to make limited release of water from its three rivers in case of drought. The 1960 World Bank-mediated Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan is considered one of the great success stories of water diplomacy, especially as it has survived the India-Pakistan wars of 1965, 1971, 1999, and much bad blood during and after the wars. Tension between the two countries is again at a peak following a terrorist strike in Kashmir, and some Indian commentators are speaking of rethinking on the treaty as a non-military option to pressure Pakistan. On September 18, 2016, an army base was attacked in the garrison town of Uri, near the Line of Control (LoC) that effectively divides Kashmir between India and Pakistan. Eighteen Indian army personnel and four terrorists were killed in the attack and India has blamed Pakistan-backed terrorists for it.
India and Pakistan have so far managed to uphold the treaty that provides mechanisms to resolve disputes over water-sharing. Under the treaty, Pakistan received exclusive use of waters from the Indus and its westward flowing tributaries, the Jhelum and Chenab, while the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers were allocated for India's use.
Just two days before the Uri attack, an Indian author on water disputes, Brahma Chellaney, wrote that, "India should hold out a credible threat of dissolving the Indus Water Treaty, drawing a clear linkage between Pakistan's right to unlimited water inflows and its responsibility not to cause harm to its upper riparian." Other commentators such as former foreign minister Yashwant Sinha, too, have suggested that the treaty be abrogated. Officially, the Indian government has said little. In response to a question, Indian foreign ministry spokesperson Vikas Swarup merely said, "For any such treaty to work, it is important that there must be mutual cooperation and trust between both the sides." He avoided going into details. The World Bank, which negotiated the treaty and sets up an adjudicator in case of disputes, has not made an official statement either. A World Bank spokesperson said, "The World Bank's role in the Indus Waters Treaty is limited and strictly procedural."
Putting this in perspective, Ashok Swain, who teaches at department of peace and conflict research, University, Sweden, said that the World Bank is co-signatory for certain provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty and its role is limited to a dispute regarding the implementation of the treaty, not its abrogation. At most the World Bank would step into, as per the treaty, to appoint a "neutral expert", or help set up a court of arbitration, in case of a dispute. India does not have the enough storage facility to create a supply problem for Pakistan.
Swain also said that India does not have enough storage facility to create a supply problem immediately for Pakistan.Hence India can dangle a stick on the Treaty but can't seek its abrogation. At most the World Bank would step into, as per the treaty, to appoint a "neutral expert", or help set up a court of arbitration, in case of a dispute.
Swain also said that India does not have enough storage facility to create a supply problem immediately for Pakistan."It has to raise its dam structures and that will take time. There is also another angle to it. India, even if it wants to, cannot take the water out of Kashmir Valley. So, the water of the three rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) will remain in their basin and India cannot divert that to other areas due to geographical reasons. India can stop the supply for some time, but cannot divert it."Uttam Sinha, a research fellow at New Delhi-based Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), too, disagreed with those asking to scrap the treaty."For sending a message to Pakistan, we don't necessarily need to go to the extent of scrapping the Indus Waters Treaty. We can even send a strong message to Pakistan by using the waters of western rivers of Indus basin for irrigation, electricity and storage of up to 3.6 Million Acre Feet (MAF), well within the norms laid down in the treaty," Sinha said.
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