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| Nda's prospects bleak | | LS ELECTIONS-2019 | | R.B.SURI
1.Indian Polity
In Lok Sabha elections in 2014,
Narinder Modi's charisma prevailed all over the country and finally BJP on its own remained successful in attaining the absolute majority in the Lok Sabha and its strength of MPs crossed more than 336 under the banner of NDA and its opponent political parties and their allies could not even cross 100 MP seats in Lok Sabha and rather INC and its partners reduced to the skeleton under UPA. The reason was that UPA-II was hit with the various scams as also and its government was total failure and unstable. Having seen no positive results due to the Demonetization of the currency notes of Rupees 500 and Rs. 1000 and the implementation of the GST in the country, the people of the country are showing their great resentment against Modi government which is increasing day by day. At the moment INC is gaining the momentum across the country which is of a great concern for them in view of the coming lok Sabha elections in May, 2019. It has increased its numbers in Lok Sabha from 44 to 63 which is remarkable indeed. On the contrary, BJP numbers stand decreased from 289 to 272 in Lok Sabha which clearly shows that its popularity is declining day by day to the maximum extent which is certainly considered as a big jolt to BJP. The biggest parliamentary democracy of the World is going to the parliamentary poll after eight months as the under the dashing leadership of Narender Modi as the Prime Minister of India. The present government is completing its full term in May next year. For the success of the Parliamentary Democracy in the country, it is essential that there should be a strong system of check and balance that means that the existence strong opposition is must . At the moment , opposition political parties very much are there in the Lok Sabha but are ineffective as the Indian National Congress- a political party having a background of more than 128 + years which fought against the 'British Raj' and ultimately succeeded in achieving the independence of the country in 1947, has been reduced to the 'SKELETON' with the strength of only 44 MPs in the Lok Sabha which stands improved now and as on date it has 63 MPs in the Lok Sabha. Same is the case with other political parties which were dictating their terms to the UPA for running the Government at the Centre . Those were the days when these parties ruled the country indirectly for a period more than a decade. Owing to this PM Modi had an open field from where he didn't expect a challenge to his actions. A need of the hour is that there should be some unity among the other Political Parties besides Congress, of course in giving the tough resistance to Modi lest he be not turned as a Dictator . In order to check the further advancement of Prime Minister Narender Modi, the opposition political parties in the country apart from INC have already started thinking afresh for the unity finally as also for forming the Third Front / Grand Alliance. At the same time, INC is moving swiftly in strengthening UPA which ruled this nation for a decade. Sonia Gandhi Chairperson of UPA and her son Rahul Gandhi as the President INC took the initiative and working vigorously for strengthening the UPA and last year Sonia adopted the Dinner diplomacy indeed. If NDA is to give a befitting fight in the Lok Sabha elections -2019, there should be a strong unity among the opposition political parties. Divided opposition can't face the BJP. It is very serious matter of concern for the opposition political parties. Keeping this in view, Sonia Gandhi is having the detailed discussions with other opposition leaders these days. Last year, Chander Babu Naidu of TDP had broken the ties with NDA and said the good bye to NDA for all practical purposes.
It is to be seen that will the opposition parties come together on a single point agenda of challenging the BJP lobby including its PM Modi ? Leaving aside their egos conflicts, the Political Parties like RJD, SP, CPI, CPI (M), TMC , NCP, JDU, JDS, should take the lesson from Kejriwal and join their hands together in giving befitting reply to the PM Modi as an alternative.
Hectic activities are going on these days in the INC camp in motivating the youth of the country who stood behind the Prime Minister Narender Modi in the Lok Sabha elections 2014 and were promised by NDA that, if voted to power, they will be having the ample opportunities for employment. Almost four years have passed but they have not got the employment as yet resulting which they feel as betrayed actually. Feeling their pulse, now Rahul Gandhi has come forward at their rescue. He has now become very active and improved his oration a lot and last month he spoke in the Lok Sabha and made the several allegations and attacks on PM Modi. From mild, he has switched over to the aggressiveness and challenging the Prime Minister Narender Modi on every front. Not only this, he committed that when they do some wrong, they always say boldly that they have committed the wrong but on the contrary when BJP commits some wrong, it always don't confess the same and go on like this on one pretext or the other and justifying as correct thereby adopting the adamant attitude. Due to the concerted and hectic efforts of our PM Narender Modi, our relations with USA stands improved a lot in the beginning as Modi had fully convinced the President Donald Trump against the ills and misdoings of the Pakistani Authorities resulting which USA had imposed ceilings on the aids and financial assistance to Pakistan. It was shocking indeed that USA administration has lifted the ceiling over Pakistan last month and granted several thousand crores of dollars aid to Pakistan. This means that Modi's policy on USA did not work at all.No doubt, BJP is running the government at the national level thereby enjoying the absolute majority in the Lok Sabha whereas it has improved its strength in Rajya Sabha by winning the elections in 3 states in the North Eastern region of the country very recently. At the same time prior to it , BJP lost the three seats (MP) of Lok Sabha in UP and Bihar. This has made a big jolt to its popularity. These days the leadership of BJP is busy in devising the new strategies to deal with the new challenges as also the political situation in the country. Its leadership is trying its best to improve upon further and will check the growing resentment of the people against it. A few months back due to ongoing missiles fight launched by USA Administration led by Donald Trump in Syria, the Prime Minister Narender Modi was feeling helpless in deciding what to do now ( rather he was in fix as what to do and finding himself in 'DHARAM SANKAT' as to whether to go with USA or USSR ? And on the contrary, it was USSR who supported India always in the past and used its VETO power against Pakistan many a times. A big question mark is there for Narender Modi as what to do next ? As per the existing national political scenario, political experts feel that BJP and its affiliates under the banner of NDA would fetch about 200 MP seats in the Lok Sabha elections -2019. Due to the Demonetization of the currency notes of rupees 500 and 1000 done by Modi government in the country in 2016, the Banking sector was hit badly to the large extent resulting which the banks were facing the liquidity problems as was evident from the fact that these days almost all the ATMs went dry across the country were generally empty with the result people faced many a problems due to the non availability of cash.
2.States Polity
BJP is playing the double role in respect of Article 370 and article 35A of the Indian Constitution which need immediate attention of the readers on top priority. Actually they are not deceiving the masses particularly but they are deceiving themselves at the cost of the nation also and ultimately they will reach at the stage from where no return would be possible. Not only this, BJP Hjgh command is also feeling disturbed on this score. Jammu region was discriminated to the large extent by the previous BJP/ PDP Coalition Government in the state in the case of selection of teachers, +2 lecturers, Junior Asstts. in Sectt. Subordinates Services, Adhoc lecturers, KAS cadres, SPOs etc.etc. Other political parties are making their resentments against the actions of the State Government. BJP stalwarts kept mum totally during their coalition era with PDP but rather had given the free hand to PDP partner to discriminate Jammu to the maximum extent. Things will be more clear when the results of Panchayat / ULB elections will come as the elections in the state stand already announced by the Governor's Administration. ULB elections will be held in October whereas the Panchayat elections will be held in December this year. There are bright chances that It may happen that PDP and National Conference may join hands together and form the next Coalition Government in the state of Jammu and Kashmir in 2020 thereby totally discarding the BJP and INC. Since they are like minded regional political parties as they are for the Dynastic Rule in the state. First Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah became the Chief Minister in 1975 as per Kashmir Accord and then his son Dr. Farooq Abdullah became the Chief Minister in 1983 and again in 1996. Likewise DR. Farooq's son Omar Abdullah became the Chief Minister in2009. Similar was the case with PDP, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed became the Chief Minister in 2002 and once again in 2015 with an alliance with BJP and her daughter Mehbooba Mufti became the Chief Minister in 2016. She remained in power up to June 19 this year. Since these days PDP and National Conference are hand in gloves with each other together with the Separatists, Hurriyat Amalgamation over the issue of Article 35 A of the Indian Constitution and are speaking against the Union Government as also vomiting poison thereby threatening the Integrity and the sovereignty of the nation.
3. ERA OF REGIONAL POLITICAL PARTIES
In the recently held election of the Deputy Chairman, Rajya Sabha, NDA nominee Harivansh Singh won the same by securing 125 votes of Rajya Sabha MPs against INC nominee Hari Parsad who fetched only 105 votes of Rajya Sabha MPs.PDP and National MPs did not participate in the election. Both of these parties are not in line either with BJP or with INC. Over the sensitive issue of the Article 35 A, they are showing their colours against the two national parties of the country rather they are on the same page and are threatening the union Government for the dire consequences and open revolt against India in favour of Azadi as is being demanded by the Huriayat Amalgamation and the Separatists in the valley. PDP and National Conference did not participate in the Deputy Chairman Rajya Sabha's election. They abstained from the voting in the Rajya Sabha. J&K has 6 MPs in the Lok Sabha and presently 3 MPs are from BJP, 2 from PDP and one from National Conference and after the imposition of Governor's Rule on June 20, the J&K Legislative Assembly has been kept under suspended animation. National Conference has already demanded for the dissolution of the assembly and asked for an early polls in the state. Pertinent to mention here that the political parties in the country and the states before the elections generally make the volgour language, serious allegations as also vomit the poison against each other. In the eventuality of shortage of their numbers to form the government, they join hands together thereby deceiving the voters at large. These days, there is an era of regional political parties in the country as we are seeing that these parties are maintaining the distance from the INC and BJP and fight tooth and nail against them. Other regional political parties are TMC,BJD,TDP,DMK, AIIDMK etc. etc. In their respective states, TDP,BJD,TMC, SP and BSP have already made their pitches strong enough to give the befitting reply to PM Modi resulting which BJP would face the big challenge in fetching the Lok Sabha seats to come into power once again. When we talk of PDP, it joined hands with BJP in 2015 to form the Coalition Government in J&K. It did not worked well and collapsed on June 19 this year with the withdrawal of support by BJP from the Coalition Government headed by Mehbooba Mufti. It appears that there are chances of combination of PDP and National Conference in the state just to keep these national political parties ( INC and BJP) out of power in this sensitive state based on their respective experiences as both of them remained as the partners with them in one way or the other and had bitterness resulting which they shall be constrained to to remain away from them.
Presently PM Modi is at the fag end of his inning, he may announce some attractive schemes for the public on August 15 at Lal Qila, New Delhi just to attract the people of the country at large. This time his trick may not work at all. At the same time, political circles believe that he'II have to meet the tough challenge from the opposition in the days to come. Since INC has already surrendered before the other political parties in claiming the post of Prime Minister, this factor may work in the formation of a solid front against PM Modi in the coming Lok Sabha polls in 2019.
Before the Lok Sabha Polls in 2019, if PM Narender Modi succeeds in
1.Getting started the work of Ram Mandir at Ayodhya
2.Improving the relations with USA Administration further
3.Starting Dialogue with Prime Minister designate Imran Khan over Kashmir issue
4. Scrapping of Article 35A of the Indian Constitution, he may sweep the Lok Sabha elections -2019 and 'll come into power once again at the centre or in the eventuality of his failure, NDA's chances are very bleak. |
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