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| Expansion - a flimflam of BJP | | | Mahadeep Singh Jamwal
A lie with a purpose is
one of the worst kinds and the most profitable - Josh Billings. On the same lines BJP lie of its expansion and acceptance by the country men but the reality is far away than its claims. The experience that cannot be turned down, BJP speak high of many dream projects in mind for the country. At intervals we hear and view many program launched with much fanfare across the country over fuelling of crores of rupees just on advertisements mainly focused on Modi centered self propagation. But a dream project that haunts day-night Modi and Shah is their political ambition of remaining glued to the power seats. In the race after capturing power in the center in 2014, they are on propaganda mission well served in the public domain by pro-BJP media net work that BJP is on continuous spree of winning state elections. It is a myth created by BJP hawkish minds and kept alive by continuous propaganda. We well remember the 2014, won by BJP riding on horses of promises and commitments that later and till date are proving to be only lame ducks. Despite the BJP thinking with a dream run in 2014, a study of the presence of BJP in all states, tells a different story. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections the Congress vote share was 19.3 per cent, getting the party its lowest ever tally at 44 MPs. For the BJP, which got a simple majority with 282 seats, the vote share was 31 per cent. So simple equations we can arrive at, 69 per cent voters of the country have rejected Modi as well as BJP. Those with just 31 per cent vote share have dubbed the voice of 69 per cent voters, not a healthy sign for democracy. The first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, not proportional representation, which India follows, meaning a candidate getting the maximum votes wins the election. FPTP exaggerates the relatively small vote swings into often huge difference in seats. No wonder wild swings in results are often so baffling. This means that a handful of voters can change the outcome in Indian elections and this has happened in 2014 elections as 19 per cent congress share transformed to 44 seats whereas 31 per cent transformed to 282 seats.
Let us glance into the Indian map indicating the position of BJP in various states that can be placed into following categories; A. States (3) under BJP rule prior to Modi government are; 1. Chhattisgarh, elections held in 2013 and BJP won 49 of 90 seats. 2. Madhya Pradesh, elections held in Nov 2013 and BJP won just magic figure of 165 of 230 seats. 3. Rajasthan, elections held in Dec 2013 and BJP captured 163 seats of the 200. B. States (5) where elections held, when 2014 parliamentary elections (7 April-12 May) were round the corner and BJP performed badly in these states. 1. Mizoram, elections held in Dec 2013 and BJP got zero in 40 assembly seats. 2. Sikkim, the elections held in April 2014 and BJP scored zero in 32 assembly seats. 3. Andhara Pradesh, elections held in May 2014 and BJP scored just 4 out of 175 assembly seats. 4. Telangana, the assembly elections held in May 2014, BJP win 4 of 119 assembly seats. 5. Odisha, the assembly elections held in April 2014, BJP win 10 of 147 assembly seats. C. States (6) where elections held after Mr. Modi came into power and BJP formed government at its own. 1. Haryana, elections held in October 2014. BJP just could win 47 of 90 seats almost equal to previously held with slight edge. 2. Uttrakhand, elections held in Feb 2017 and BJP got clear majority at its own by winning 57 of 70 seats. 3. Uttara Pradesh, elections held in March 2017 and BJP got 312 of 403 seats. 4. Gujarat, in home state of Modi and Shah, acid test was observed in just concluded elections in Dec 2017. BJP just saved its face at 99 seats of 182, losing 16 seats than previously held. 5. Himachal Pradesh, elections held in 2017 and BJP captured 44 seats of 68 seats. Here BJP cannot be credited being rotational change ever decided by voters of HP. 6. Tripura, elections held in Feb 2018 and BJP got 36 of the 59 seats that went to poll. D. States (8) where elections held after Mr. Modi came into power and BJP formed government with support of other parties. 1. Maharashtra, elections held in October 2014. BJP got 122 seats of the 288 seats and failed to obtain magic figure to form the government at its own and did so with alliance with Shiv Sena securing 63 seats. 2. Jammu and Kashmir, elections held in Nov-Dec 2014 that gave 25 seats of 87 to BJP and it architected alliance with PDP against which BJP has fought elections 3. Jharkhand, elections were held in Dec 2014. BJP got 37 of 82 seats and failed to obtain magic figure to form the government, hence joined hands with regional parties to form the government. 4. Bihar, elections were held in 2015. The RJD win 80, JDU 71, and BJP win 53 seats. The initial government was formed by alliance of RJD and JDU but subsequently JDU dumped RJD and architected alliance with BJP. 5. Assam, elections held in 2016, but BJP could win only 60 seats of 126, means less than 50 per cent. 6. Goa, elections were held in 2017. BJP win 13 and Congress 17 of 40 seats, what BJP in trickery architected alliance with regional parties and form the government. 7. Meghalya, elections held in Feb 2018 and BJP won just two and Congress 21 of the 60 seats. The regional party supported by BJP is in power there. 8. Arunachal Pradesh, The elections held in 2018 but witnessed turmoil, when in 60 member assembly, 43 MLAs winning on Congress tickets defected to BJP making in all 48 group of BJP. E. States (8) where elections held after Modi regime and BJP ignored badly by voters. 1. Delhi, elections held in 2015, BJP have just 3 of 70 assembly seats. 2. Tamil Nadu, elections held in May 2016 and BJP was returned with zero in 235 assembly seats. 3. West Bengal, elections held in 2016 and BJP scored just 3 out of 294 assembly seats. 4. Kerala, elections held in May 2016 and BJP scored just one out of 140 assembly seats. 5. Punjab, elections held in 2017 and BJP scored 43 out of 117 assembly seats. 6. Manipur, elections held in 2017, BJP win just 21 of 60 assembly seats. 7. Nagaland., elections held in 2018, BJP win 12 of 60 assembly seats. 8. Karnataka, Recently concluded elections in 2018, BJP captured 104 out of 222 seats. The BJP stand fully exposed in Karnataka for architecting trickery alliances but here it failed because of Apex Court interference. The total number of Assembly seats spread over to 30 states is 3846 and out of this BJP has won just 1537 seats across the country. A further analysis reveals that before Modi assumed power in 2014, three states were already under BJP rule. In five states elections were held just around Parliamentary elections in 2014, but BJP failed to register its much presence in all these states. In 22 states elections were held after Modi assumed power. BJP only in six states was able to form government at its own, in 8 states it has to tailor alliance and support with other parties to capture power, and in 8 states BJP has to cut a sorry figure as people rejected this party and was able to win only on nominal seats. More interesting explosion rarely spoken by BJP and less made public by media is that BJP is continuously losing by polls on seats vacated after party's massive victory in 2014 parliamentary elections. BJP just managed win in 5 of 26 Lok Sabha seats that went for by polls after Modi regime. The seat details where by polls held and BJP lost badly are; 1. Medak (Telangana) in September 2014. 2. Mainpuri in Mainpuri (UP) in September 2014. 3. Kandhmal (Odisha) in October 2014. 4. Warangal (Telangana) in Nov 2015. 5. Ratlam (MP) in Nov 2015. 6. Bangaon (WB) in 2015. 7. Coochbehar (WB) 2016. 8. Tamluka (WB) in 2016. 9. Tura (Meghalya) in 2016. 10. Amritsar (Pb) in 2017. 11. Srinagar (J&K) in 2017. 12. Mallapuram (Kerala) in 2017. 13. Gurdaspur (Pb) in 2017. 14. Ajmer (Rajasthan) in Feb. 2018. 15. Alwar (Rajasthan) in Feb. 2018. 16. Uluberia (WB) in Feb. 2018. 17. Phulpur (vacated by sitting Dy.CM of UP) in 2018. 18. Gorakhpur (vacated by sitting CM of UP) in 2018 19. Araria (Bihar) in March 2018. 20. Just recently in November 2018, the bye poll results in Karnataka gave a humiliating defeat to BJP when out of 3 parliamentary seats BJP could register its win only in Shivamogga Lok Sabha constituency and Congress-JDS alliance captured Ballari and Mandya parliamentary seats in addition to two assembly seats of Jamkhandi and Ramanagara assembly seats. The facts and figures enumerated above are enough to speak that BJP's spanning spectrum as is in much propagation is just a curved breeding. It is not out of context to mention here that BJP is not in power in J&K owing to its zero performance it has to come out as a safe escape.
Ally after ally, from the west, south and east; have registered their displeasure with BJP at its handling of allies. The Chandrababu Naidu's TDP once part of NDA, has parted away. Shiv Sena had declared that it would go it alone in the 2019 general elections and the subsequent Assembly polls. In Bihar, smaller allies like the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) and Jiten Manjhi-led Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM) seem to be drifting away, and rumored to be enroute to joining the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). States like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, where a large number of Lok Sabha seats were won by BJP in 2014, and are set for Assembly elections predicted to be going out of the BJP fold. Concluding it is an interesting analysis that I put forward as mirror image of BJP's false propaganda for discussions and to debate how far BJP is acceptable across the country and to what extent, its claim of expansion after Modi regime is correct that is a flimflam of BJP. In my individual view BJP's claim of expansion is just a hoax to create a wrong impression among the voters to divert their attention towards BJP. We need to be careful and not to put the cart before the horse without application of our mind in 2019. |
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