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Political arithmetic may favour the Congress
3/20/2007 11:26:41 PM


NEW DELHI
J&K Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad is believed to have indicated to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that his minority government will survive even if coalition partner PDP pulls out.

A day before the PM meets PDP leader Mufti Mohd Syed in a last-ditch attempt to save the tottering coalition in J&K, Azad briefed him on the political and security situation in the state.

The arithmetic in J&K seems to favour the Congress with Azad procuring signed letters of support from Independents and MLAs belonging to smaller parties. In addition, the Congress appears to be banking on the likelihood of a split in the PDP should Syed go ahead with his threat to pull out of the coalition government. Congress sources said PDP ministers, who number nine, have signalled their opposition to Syed’s confrontationist game with his alliance partner.

What seems to be giving the Congress confidence is the flak that Syed has caught in the state from almost the entire political spectrum with even Hurriyat leaders mocking him for jumping on their bandwagon. The PDP’s demands for demilitarisation, self-rule and withdrawal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act bear an uncanny similarity to the Hurriyat’s plank and to Musharraf’s recent four-point plan for the resolution of the Kashmir issue.

Coming out his meeting with the PM, Azad rejected the PDP’s demands, saying there can be no compromise on national security. He said infiltration levels had doubled in the past two months. Last week, the PM had rejected the demands in his reply to Syed’s letter. After setting the bottom line, the PM has indicated to Syed that he is ready to consider troop reduction after a review of the security situation in summer when violence increases in the Valley.

The ball is now in Syed’s court whether to accept the face-saver the PM is offering him.


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