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Political parties feel the heat of troop cut demand
May have to rework their agenda ahead of 2008 assembly polls
3/27/2007 10:58:54 PM

Jammu, March 27
The ongoing debate over the issue of reduction in the level of troops is receiving mixed set of responses from people in two different regions in the state forcing political parties to recast their poll strategy in order to gain political mileage in the next assembly elections.
While majority of people in the Kashmir valley support the demand for reduction of troops and repeal of AFSPA those in the Jammu and Ladakh regions oppose it.
Consequently the PDP is likely to succeed in extending and strengthening its bases in the Kashmir valley at the cost of the National Conference and the Congress,the former blaming the PDP for playing a gimmick by demanding troops reduction and the latter opposing any cut in the strength of troops.
However,the PDP,which had started establishing its units in various parts of the Jammu region and gained foothold in R.S.Pura sector and its adjoining areas,may be a loser.
Against this,the Congress,which has limited pockets of influence in the Kashmir valley,may suffer further erosion by vigorously opposing the PDP for raising the demand for reduction of troops and scrapping of AFSPA.The Congress,which had won 15 Assembly seats in 2002 poll in the Jammu region,could better its performance in the next election from the same province as majority of people have expressed their resentment against any change in the AFSPA and withdrawal of troops.
On the basis of this analogy the National Conference could compensate for the loss that it may suffer in the valley by strengthening its base in the Jammu region. But the initial reaction from the muslim dominated areas of Poonch,Rajouri and Doda,where majority of people are for withdrawal of troops,does indicate that the gains of the national Conference in these belts could be diluted by the weakening of peoples’ support to the party headed by Mr Omar Abdullah.
It is an admitted fact that the National Conference, in principle,is not opposed to withdrawal of troops and the repeal of AFSPA but for scoring a political mileage over its arch political foe,the PDP,its leadership ridiculed the Mufti’s demand. The idea behind this exercise was to widen the bridge between the Congress and the PDP which could prove politically advantageous for the National Conference.

By winning nine Assembly seats,out of 37, in 2002 Poll from the Jammu region the National Conference was found to be well entrenched in the muslim dominated belts of Poonch,Rajouri and Doda districts.During the last four years Mufti Mohd.Sayeed and his daughter,Ms Mehbooba Mufti,have paid frequent visits to Poonch and Rajouri areas for making inroads in the National conference bastion.It is yet to be seen whether the NC support to the Congress on its “no” to reduction of troops and repeal of AFSPA will strengthen the vote bank of the PDP.
However, a senior PDP leader said today “I do not agree that the demand for reduction in troops and repeal of AFSPA can lead to regional polarization.”In reply to a question he said wherever the PDP leaders explained the rationale behind its demand for withdrawal of troops and scrapping of AFSPA people in the Jammu region “supported our argument.”
Leaders belonging to the Congress and the National Conference argue” we are not opposed to withdrawal of troops and repeal of AFSPA but we feel the time is not opportune.” “We do not want the peace process and decline in the level of militancy related violence get derailed by sending troops to the barracks,” they said.
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