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| Tit-for-tit expulsions are ominous | | Indo-Pak relations plummet to a new low | | B L KAK
NEW DELHI: August 6
It was simply a phenomenon of equal and opposite reaction, when on Saturday, August 5, Islamabad's action triggered quite an opposite reaction from New Delhi. Islamabad expelled an Indian diplomat, Deepak Kaul. And a few hours later, New Delhi ordered expulsion of Mohamed Rafiq Ahmed, a counsellor in the Delhi-based Pakistan High Commission.
Pakistan carried out its plan in a harsh manner, while India demonstrated utmost decency in conveying its decision expelling the Pakistani counsellor. Deepak Kaul was treated harshly by Pakistani agents. Kaul, hooded and handcufed, was taken to an unidentified location where he was interrogated intermittently for five hours. It was outrageous treatment.
This kind of operation was not employed by Indians while deciding on the future stay of Pakistani diplomat, Rafiq Ahmed, in India. Pakistan's Foreign Office charged Deepak Kaul with breaking diplomatic norms and engaging in activities contrary to his offical assignment. India's Foreign Office, too, had a similar charge against Pakistani diplomat, Mohammed Rafiq Ahmed. External Affairs Ministry Joint Secretary, Dilip Sinha, let it be known that Rafiq Ahmed has been involved in activities incompatible with his diplomatic status. In Pakistan, Deepak Kaul was declared persona non grata. And in India, Rafiq Ahmed was declared persona non grata.
The tit-for-tat expulsions do not represent a major breach in relations between Pakistan and India, but reflect the growing strain on a peace process started in early 2004 to resolve six decades of hostility. Nonetheles, Indian External Affairs Ministry did suggest: "Such action as has been taken by the government of Pakistan cannot but undermine the bilateral relations between the two countries".
Pakistan and India have a history of bitter relations, and have fought three wars since their independence from Britain in 1947. Tensions have eased in the last two-and-a-half years, but ramped up again after the July 11 bombings on the Mumbai rail network killed 207 people. India consequently postponed a round of peace talks with Pakistan, saying Pakistan supported the attackers-- a charge Pakistan denied.
Pakistan and India have often expelled each other's diplomats in the past, usually over spying allegations. But Saturday's expulsions were the first since the two countries agreed in January 2004 to resume peace talks. The last such expulsions were ordered in 2003. The August 5 development casts a dark shadow on bilateral ties already strained in the aftermath of the Mumbai bomb blasts.
In view of the prevailing tense atmosphere, it can be safely predicted that the Indo-Pak relations will witness further escalation of tension. Ruling politicians of Pakistan, particularly Prime Minister, Shaukat Aziz, and Foreign Minister, Kasuri, who obviously have been mandated by their 'supremo, Gen. Parvez Musharraf, to continue to talk about the need of resuming the stalled dialogue, will have to revise their plans, as New Delhi, at present, is quite angry and unwilling to oblige Islamabad at this stage.
In plain language, the Indo-Pakistan dialogue process is deadlocked. Even as back channel diplomacy continues to be in place, the possibility of an early resumption of the peace talks has been ruled out, at least for the present. Indications are by no means uncertain that tempers may rise in the coming days, with the unabated diplomatic row between New Delhi and Islamabad.
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