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| Caution: Pak may pump in more terror mechanics | | |
NIRBHAY JAMMUAL
Jammu, July 11: As the developments in Pakistan take the Center-stage in the discourse of terrorism and Jehadi politics, concerns are mounting on the future trends of insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir and under these circumstances the talk of reducing troop strength and thus lowering the guard may prove dangerous.
When Government of India and the Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad opposed the demand of demilitarisation their argument was based on the instability in the trends of terrorist violence. It is true that at some point of time violence is at lowest ebb thus prompting some people to raise voice for demilitarisation but the surge is always guided by the conditions prevailing in Pakistan.
Defence Secretary Shekhar Dutt has recently been in Jammu and Kashmir to review the ground situation and reports suggested that he might recommend relocation of troops from orchards and school buildings. The Defence Minister AK Antony is likely to come later in the month to see the situation for himself. Amidst this exercise, a US based international think of repute specialising in Jammu and Kashmir situation has warned of worsening situation.
Offering a new strategic thinking, particularly in wake of developments happening in the neighbouring country, the Carnegie Endowment has said in its latest report that Pakistan's military is complicit in terrorism in Kashmir, the worsening security situation in Afghanistan, including the resurgence of the Taliban and the growth of jihadi extremism and capabilities.
Arguing that the nature of the regime is the main source of trouble for the region, the report from the conservative think tank urges a return to "a civilian government according to Pakistan's own constitution".
Restoring stable civilian rule would lessen Pakistan's obsession with the threat posed by India and focus Pakistan's energy on its own economic development, suggested scholar Frederic Grare.
To this end, "Policies and, if necessary, sanctions, should be directed towards the military and Pakistan's small elite", suggested Grare, a leading expert and writer on South Asia, who recently served in the French Embassy in Pakistan.
He said that the general population should, as much as possible, be shielded from effects of withholding assistance. He added that of the approximately $10 billion given in assistance to Pakistan since Sep 11, 2001, only $900 million has gone to development - the bulk being channelled to the military.
"Current Western policies reinforce Pakistan's political weakness and contribute to regional instability by allowing Pakistan to trade democratisation for its cooperation on terrorism," Grare said.
He argued that while Pakistan may partially cooperate with the West against international terrorism, without democratisation Pakistan would continue its policies, resulting in continued regional instability.
"The Pakistan Army has inflated the threat of religious sectarianism and jihadi extremism outside its borders, particularly in Afghanistan and Kashmir, for its own self-interest," he said.
Faced with this seeming instability and a perceived lack of alternatives, the West adopted a more lenient attitude toward Pakistan's military regime as a moderate stalwart against Islamic extremism.
The report recommends that the West should insist that Pakistan's military president General Pervez Musharraf cease violating the constitution by holding the position of both president and the chief of the army staff.
It also suggests holding of free and fair elections with international monitoring, cessation of Pakistani infiltration into Kashmir and Afghanistan and disbanding of all terrorist infrastructures within the country.
The reports says that US financial assistance should be explicitly directed towards any shortcomings that impede Pakistan's cooperation in combating terrorism and remain dependent on results.
The US should cease its campaign against political Islam in Pakistan. It has proven counterproductive and made US policy dependent on Pakistan's military, which claims to be the strongest rampart against religious extremism, the report added.
"This report proposes a middle way," said Grare. "It addresses some of the challenges that the Pakistani military regime's regional policies create for the international community, arguing that none can be resolved in isolation from the others."
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