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| Can Congress rule the state on its own? | | New Analysis | |
The ambitious target set by Chief Minister, Ghulam Nabi Azad for the Congress to form the next government on its own, winning a simple
majority in the House of eighty-seven, though highly difficult, yet not out of the realm of achievement, provided a proper strategies and new combinations and permutations are evolved. His bid to rope in the
Gujjar community and its leaders into the Congress fold can definitely pay electoral dividends to the party, with the vote bank of the community holding a balance in over a dozen seats in Jammu and
Kashmir. But he shall have to take care that in the process the Paharis, the term used for the inhabitants in the mountainous areas in
Jammu region, other than the Gujjars, are not alienated from the Congress. The rivalry between the two sections of the population, both
Muslims living in the hilly areas is well known, although their political interests are not incompatible, if the Congress leaders display little more craftsmanship. Ever since the Congress handed over the power in the state, on silver
platter to Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, in 1975, under Indra-Sheikh accord, Congress has not ruled the state on its own. It remained in
the power as a junior partner of National Conference or in the opposition. Between 1947 and 1964 National Conference was the ruling
party in the state, but it was affiliated to All India Congress. It was in 1964, when the then State Prime Minister G M Sadiq merged the
ruling National Conference into the Congress, along with changing the nomenclature of Prime Minister to Chief Minister, besides effecting many onstitutional changes, aimed at greater integration of the state
with the rest of India. For about ten years Congress party in J&K, as a unit of the All India Congress remained in power, till the then Chief Minister and the State Congress President Mohammad Qaim
convinced the then Prime Minister Indra Gandhi to bring Sheikh Abdullah back on the political scene in the troubled state by handing over power to him.
In the State Assembly Election of 2002, for the first time in the
political history of J&K incumbency factor went against the National Conference, who was ousted from power, though still emerging as the largest single party, with winning 28 seats in a House of eighty-seven. The Congress emerged as the second largest party, winning twenty seats, fifteen from Jammu region and five from Kashmir valley. Since then some MLAs, who were returned to the assembly as
independence, have joined the Congress or are its associate members.
Although the Jammu card played by Congress, by projecting Ghulam Nabi
Azad as the next Chief Minister of the state, for the first time a
person belonging to Jammu region, which helped it to win fifteen seats
from the region, out of its kitty of thirty-seven, has turned out to
be hollow and Jammuities feeling of having been taken for right, yet
in the face of no other party in Jammu being strong enough to dislodge
Congress from its present position, the Congress can be expected to
improve its position and win more seats from the region. The alliance
with BSP, a new emerging force in Jammu region, can pay rich dividends
to the Congress. The BJP, with its house divided and party leaders
functioning at cross purposes, is in no position to pose any challenge
to the Congress. With its present in capable and tainted leadership,
it is hardly in a position to rope in smaller parties and muster a
strong alliance to give good fight to the Congress. Notwithstanding
muscle flexing and playing a high drama by the JKNPP, its credibility
among the Jammu people is at a very low ebb and the party is not
expected to be in a position to retain its present tally of four
seats.
The only challenge to the Congress in Jammu will be from the National
Conference, who besides in the Muslim Majority areas of the region has
pockets of influence in Hindu majority areas as well. The PDP has
hardly any chance to win a seat from Jammu region. With little efforts
put up unitedly by rival groups in the Congress, the party can improve
its position in Kashmir valley as well, besides retaining its present
tally or improving on it in Ladakh.
Even if the unimaginable, simple majority on its own is gained by the
Congress in the next assembly elections, it is doubtful if the Central
high command of the party would allow the state unit to form and then
run the government on its own, without joining in it of some Kashmir
centric party. The Congress traditionally is obsessed with Kashmir
centric and even marginally separatist politicians, entertaining the
belief that without the support of these elements there will be
further alienation of Kashmiris from the Indian main stream.
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