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| Likely fallout on J&K | | Bhutto assassination | | Early Times Special Correspondent
Jammu | Dec 29
Further destabilizing Pakistan, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, is going to have a direct bearing on future Indo-Pak relations and having its direct fallout on Jammu and Kashmir. With peace process between India and Pakistan getting a set back and derailed, at least frozen, till the conditions stabilize in Pakistan the hopes of Kashmiri secessionists of early solution of Kashmir problem are going to be belied.
The Samjauta Express rail link as well as bus service between India and Pakistan via Wagha border suspended, in view of turmoil in Pakistan and ward off its fallout on India, there is every likelihood of travel routes between two parts of Jammu and Kashmir, which were opened during the last over two years may be eventually closed, if the turmoil and chaotic violent outburst in Pakistan spreads to Pak held areas of J&K, of which there is great possibility, if the things do not stabilize soon in Pakistan. Although for the time being remaining open of these routes between two parts of Kashmir has been announced, but with peace and normalcy in that country continuously remaining disturbed, the government of India will have no option than to suspend the bus service and seal the routes, to check sneaking into this side of Islamic jehadis, likely to be rounded up and hounded out in Pakistan, under the pressure from USA as well as compulsion of the internal situation in that country. The trade link between the two countries is all set to be delayed and kept in the cold storage, till conditions get stabilize in Pakistan.
With the credibility of Musharraf regime as well as Parvez Musharraf's personal credibility and authority getting further beating the Kashmiri secessionists, particularly the moderate faction of Hurriyat Conference led by Maulvi Umer Farooq and others who drive inspiration and support from the present Pak establishment and its armed forces are going to be weakened, with confusion prevailing in their ranks as well as the leadership, in search of new allies and masters in that country. On the brink of civil war and even threatened of its own disintegration, the establishment as well as the positively thinking forces in Pakistan, in their self preservation and consolidation within the country, may have their hands off Kashmir imbroglio. With itself being target of Islamic jehadis and fundamentalist forces in the North Eastern part of the country as well as fearing take over of the country by Al-Qaeda and Taliban, the civil society and particularly the advocates of restoration and democracy and normalcy in that country, are also likely to take the line and launch the campaign to save their own country from disintegration and getting over powered by forces of chaos and anarchy and forgetting or putting in the backburner the dream of annexing Kashmir to Pakistan.
Any such eventuality and rethinking in Pakistan will be providing a golden opportunity for the political establishment in India to take a bold decision and settle the internal dimension of Jammu and Kashmir problem, assuaging the estranged and alienated section of the Kashmiris, who too are likely to be receptive under the new realities of the situation and getting disillusioned with the capacity and capability of Pakistan and even USA and other Western countries to come to their aid, in bolstering their secessionist aspirations.
However there is another and dark side of the picture. Press hard within his own country, getting totally isolated and cornered from all sides, there is also possibility of Parvez Musharraf embarking on fresh adventure over Jammu and Kashmir, by siding with the Islamic extremist elements in his country as well as the Kashmiri secessionists, based in PoK and Pak, by diverting their attention towards intensifying terrorist activities in Jammu and Kashmir, by once again rendering them all help and assistance. Parvez Musharraf who has not hesitated to adopt any option, including taking a 180 degree u turn by becoming ally of the USA in war against hitherto abetted and supported Taliban and Al-Qaeda terrorists, to keep himself in authority in Pakistan, with the support of USA and lately agreeing to his forced marriage of convenience with Benazir Bhutto, on the bidding of USA, imposing emergency in his country to frustrate feared adverse verdict of country's Supreme Court over his re election as President of the country while donning army uniform and then lifting the emergency under pressure from USA—all motivated by his desire to remain clinging to power in Pakistan--can go to any length.
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