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| Jammu holds key to next government formation | | | Early Times Special Correspondent
Jammu | May 2
News Analysis
The atmosphere similar to one that was prevailing in Jammu before 2002 assembly elections is building up again in the run up for 2008 elections to the J&K assembly. In 2002, it was the National Conference plank for greater autonomy to the state, about which the state assembly had adopted a resolution, which however was rejected by the BJP led NDA government in the Centre, which provoked Jammuites to rally behind the slogan of continuous discriminations against Jammu region and the strong demand for separate state of Jammu.
In the run up for 2008 assembly elections, the provocation for Jammuites has been the PDP's proposals for dual control and sharing of sovereignty by India and Pakistan over Kashmir and the concept of dual currency propounded by the party patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, who is insistent on pressing his suggestion to the logical end and make the same as party's election plank. The same is having its backlash in Jammu, with all the parties other than the PDP, including the Congress forcefully rejecting the suggestion and preparing for making the same as one of the main issues during the elections.
Whereas in Kashmir valley there is going to be a triangular contest among National Conference, PDP and Congress with some splinter groups and small organizations like Hakeem Mohammad Yaseen's, PDF, the newly floated Peoples Democratic Party by the former PDP leader and minister Ghulam Hassan Mir besides the CPIM and to some extent CPI also making their presence felt, it is the Jammu region, with 37 seats in a House of 87, which is going to hold the key to forming of the next government. There is going to be a highly split verdict in the valley, with National Conference again emerging as the largest single party, whereas the PDP despite all its efforts to woe the separatists by strongly advocating their agenda, is hardly expected to improve on its previous tally of 15 seats, the Congress is also going to win almost the same number of 5 seats, with some possibility of marginally improving its tally, while the small groups are also expected to return about ten members in the new assembly, most of whom are likely later to join the band wagon of the over all winner or a winning combination.
As far Ladakh is concerned, the position of Congress which had won two seats from here in 2002 assembly elections, this time is precarious. The Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council, which was controlled by the Congress, on whose strength it won two seats of Leh district, this time has turned against the Congress, which may cost the party heavily in 2008 assembly elections. The Ladakh Buddhists Association and the members of Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council are going to fight 2008 assembly elections on a separate formulation, floated by them, which may also get support from the BJP.
It will be the outcome of elections in Jammu region, which will be crucial for any single party or a combination to form the next government. On the 37 seats in the region main contest is going to be between the Congress and the National Conference, with BJP, JKNPP and Bahujan Samaj Party too making their presence felt and in total, along with some independents likely to win about a dozen seats, Congress still happens to be better placed in the region, provided it plays its cards intelligently and imaginatively to come to the expectations of the people here by identifying itself with their aspirations and interests. A total break of the party from the PDP and strong opposition to the pro secessionist slogans and militant friendly posture of PDP can win the party good dividends. Any half hearted refutation of the imaginary scenario being projected by the PDP and the Central leadership of the party dragging their feet in strongly opposing the PDP's agenda will go against the Congress. The PDP has virtually written off Jammu, mainly its Hindu majority areas and at the most it may stake its claim to a seat or two in Poonch and Rajouri districts. However, if all the pro Jammu organizations, as BJP, Panthers Party, BSP its splinter group, National Bahujan Party, various Shiv Senas and BJP's disgruntled elements, along with some other small groups owing allegiance to the aspirations of the Jammu people come on the single platform and rally behind the slogan of Jammu state, the apple carts of the Congress can be upset. |
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