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| Azad’s arithmetic under test, last minute huddle muddle on | | | Early Times Reporter
Jammu | July 5
All eyes are now keenly focused on the arithmetic of Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad to save his minority government which is headed for a crucial floor test on Monday. Last minute huddle muddle and realignment of forces is on to save the government.
With just one day left for the ‘do or die’ battle almost all legislators of different political parties have reached the winter capital Srinagar where legislative assembly is meeting on Monday to decide fate of Azad’s minority government. After making efforts to secure peace in Jammu during his two day stay the Chief Minister too has reached Srinagar to put in place his last minute strategies for saving the government.
Ghulam Nabi Azad’s repeated claims of having sufficient numbers to save his government have put the political parties and also the political observers in confusion on number game. With three major players –the National Conference, Peoples Democratic Party and Panthers Party –having clearly issued their whips to the members for opposing trust vote, the observers have left with very little to guess than to think of poaching.
The well established floor management abilities of the Chief Minister Ghulam Azad are under severe political and media gaze as he faces the acid test of saving his government. It may be mentioned here that Azad was the Parliamentary Affairs Minister during regime of Prime Minister Narasimha Rao which completed full five years in office despite being a minority government. Azad’s floor management skills by the keeping the Narasimha Rao’s flock intact as Parliamentary Affairs Minister are still a model his predecessors in New Delhi.
Calculating all Congress members, their associates and independent members of all hues, the total tally does not go beyond 38 –short of seven members to prove the majority on floor of the House. This figure of 38 also includes two members of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) who are yet to decide their course of action. Sources told EARLY TIMES that the CPI(M) leaders will meeting in Srinagar Sunday afternoon to decide their role on the trust vote. The CPI(M) still continues to be a partner of the Congress led UPA government at the center and the possibility of these two members voting for the trust vote was still there.
Highly places sources told EARLY TIMES that at least six MLAs from the Peoples Democratic Party (including two rebels and one dissident) were in constant touch with the aides of Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad and their voting for the trust vote was not ruled out. The PDP patron and former Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed is out of India and is unlikely to return till Monday. His absence will also cost PDP one crucial vote in its effort to defeat the government.
The PDP has already expressed apprehensions of poaching of its MLAs by the Congress. The party even its whip issued on Friday warned its members of loosing their membership if they votes in favour of the trust vote.
Sources also pointed out that if the government survives, the Chief Minister may go in for a fresh cabinet expansion to accommodate all those people who helped him in the crisis. Sources asserted that the CM may induct some of those independent MLAs who support him in the trial of strength because they do not have any threat of inviting disqualification under the state's anti-defection law. Some constitutional experts said even if the MLA looses his membership for violating the party whip he still can be made a Minister without facing elections for next six months. It may be mentioned here that elections in Jammu and Kashmir are in any case due in next three months.
After resignation of PDP Ministers all major departments are in the hands of the Chief Minister who may not be able to do justice with all the portfolios and that too when the tenure of the present Government is till the end of October. The new Assembly has to be constituted by the middle of November 2008. With the possibility of Azad expanding his cabinet after July 7 having become bright number congress legislators and some independent MLAs have begun their work for ensuring their berth in the council of ministers. |
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