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| Land fertile for polls but…alas! | | | Gareeb Das
Jammu | July 30
If it were in the hands of the BJP or the National Conference or the PDP they would have preferred preponement of the Assembly election. They would wish to see the polling dates fixed within one month.For them the reason is their belief that the ongoing turmoil on the land diversion and later on the land revocation may help them in securing voters support.
While the BJP leadership believes that the party may win over 25 out of 37 seats in the Jammu region, the National Conference and the PDP have a feeling that they could improve upon their performance that they had demonstrated in 2002 poll in the Kashmir valley, which has 46 Assembly constituencies. In the 2002 poll the PDP had won 16 seats in the valley and the National Conference over 20.
Though the BJP leadership at the National level recently announced that it would not make the land revocation order as a poll issue, party leaders in Jammu believe that it was after 31 years that the land row has set in motion pro-BJP wave in the Jammu region.
In 1977 election the pro-Janata Party wave had gripped the Jammu region allowing the saffron brigade to win over 21 seats. No doubt the strongest ever reaction in the Jammu region over the revocation of the land diversion order had the total support of traders, transporters and other sections of people, all of them were not the supporters and activists of the saffron Brigade, the BJP leaders managed to cash on it by courting arrest and by facing police lathis. As such he BJP wants to bag this support in the polling booths. They have fears that if the tempo of the agitation got reduced they may not be able to sustain gains that they seem to achieve in case the elections were held earlier than the schedule.
For the National Conference and the PDP the reason for their wish to see the State going for early election is the same. They too feel that their role in getting the land diversion order revoked has strengthened their bases in the Kashmir valley, no matter their stand has weakened their base in the Jammu region. The PDP leadership has placed all its eggs in the valley's basket and hence it has not bothered to carry out any damage control exercise in the Jammu region. Its calculation is that if it is able to win between 20 and 23 seats in the valley it would emerge as a force to reckon with. Such a win could ensure for itself a place where it can form the Government with the support of the Congress. The National Conference leadership has similar ideas in its mind.
Since the Congress has its eyes on the Jammu region its leadership is not in favoiur of preponement of the election. It wants time for reestablishing the party's base which has been eroded by the way the Congress led Government deided to revoke the land diversion order. No doubt Ghulam Nabi Azad should have won many a hearts in the Kashmir valley by getting the land order withdrawn but the leaders of the PDP and the National Conference have seemingly gained the advantage by having resorted to breast beating over the diversion of land to the Shrine Board.But not a single party seems to be aware of the twists and turns the poll results can take. |
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