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| Resolve Amarnath Row | | | Arun Nehru
We have a crisis situation in Jammu and Kashmir (though this is not the first time). And considering the global situation — elections due in the US; the fluid situation in Pakistan where democratic forces are trying to establish control over a system dominated by the Army and elements of the ISI, who have a direct interest in terrorist activities; the chaos and violence in Iraq; and activities of the Taliban and Al Qaeda on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border — these are all matters of grave concern. In these difficult times, it is necessary for all political parties to think of national interest.
The Amarnath land issue is no longer a bone of contention. It is common knowledge that the political response in all three regions of the state (the Valley, Jammu and Ladakh) are very different and it would be a serious error to try to score debating points over each other and will not go down well with the voting public in the country. The separatist language in the Valley, the disruption of essential supplies to almost all parts of the state and a campaign in other parts of India on religious lines make little sense when we are dealing with a national threat. Last month saw unprecedented firing across the border, the attempt to push across a thousand militants into the Valley, bomb attacks on our embassy in Kabul, and in Ahmedabad and Bengaluru — all these point to a chaotic situation in Pakistan where democratic forces, represented by Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, are trying to free the system from those, in the Army and the intelligence, with strong vested interests. There is no doubt that the global community is giving all the assistance it can under the circumstances and the Army and paramilitary forces are obviously on high-alert. This is not the time for partisan politics and negative thinking. We need a stable and democratic Pakistan and we need strong handling of our borders to eliminate terror elements that attack both governments. We don’t need local politics to interfere with national security issues. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has called for an all-party meeting and hopefully we will see a greater degree of understanding of the situation at the national level.
We have fought three wars with Pakistan and on each occasion every trick was tried to create communal violence. Many decision-makers, used to a rigid regime, have little understanding of the democratic process and the inherent power of the ballot. But the situation this time is very different as a democratic government is taking root in Pakistan and trying to prevail over a system that is tuned to violence and subversion. We have the assistance of the global community to fight the war on terror. The current conflict is clearly with the global forces of terror that are threatened in their sanctuary on Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan. It is unfortunate that the Amarnath land issue should be allowed to be used to create further violence in India. The loss of life is tragic, both in Jammu and the Valley, and it is time for leaders to act like leaders and place national interest over their regional aspirations. It is very easy to find fault with individual leaders, but both, Mufti Syed (PDP) and Farooq Abdullah (NC) have acted and governed with maturity and understanding during their tenure. Both have a greater role to play at present and in the future and should be involved in all decisions.
We have important Assembly elections in four states. We have general elections in six to eight months. We have an uncertain coalition structure, with the UPA under pressure from its existing allies and the "new" friends necessary for winning the nuclear vote. And we have a resurgent Opposition trying to score debating points on every issue. The situation looks complicated and democratic functioning is "chaotic" at times. But there is an inherent strength in the system and if the security situation intensifies in the near future then the entire might of the nation will be behind the government and the security forces. Politics rarely takes a "vacation" and as we head into General Elections we will all have our election charts. In my initial calculations, I see the Congress-led UPA with 210-plus seats, followed by the BJP-led NDA with 175 seats and the UNPA, which includes the BSP and the Left (also the TDP, TRS, AGP, INLD and JD-S) with 115. Others will get 35-40 seats (this category includes the AIDMK, PMK, MDMK). The situation may change as we go along and after the elections there might just be the UPA and NDA. In that situation, the Congress will be in a better position to form the government.
We have several issues on hand. On the economic front we are having a good monsoon and food security is not likely to be an issue, and the 20 per cent drop in oil prices will help in curbing inflation. The global economic outlook is not very bright and we see a constant drop in productivity in the USA and now in Europe as well. Maintaining India’s GDP growth of 7-8 per cent will be a challenge in 2009 and much will depend on the global economic situation and the revival of the US economy. Security is also likely to be an issue and the Central government’s handling of the Kashmir crisis will be crucial. I think it would be a mistake for the Opposition to try to score debating points on this sensitive issue. The elections in USA will be a decisive event and I think every effort will be made to terminate the war in Iraq in stages and hopefully, with a democratic government in Pakistan, things will change for the better on the "border" as there is no future in violence and death. |
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