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| NC, Farooq Abdullah can't be written off | | Anti-incumbency factor will help NC, BJP: Nehru | |
B L KAK
NEW DELHI, SEPT. 8: Arun Nehru, former Union Minister of Internal Security, has forceast that the anti-incumbency factor will help the National Conference in Kashmir Valley and the BJP in Jammu region. And this despite "good and effective" governance by Mufti Mohammed Sayeed and then by Ghulam Nabi Azad, Nehru says.
Arun Nehru, who is counted one among Kashmir 'specialists', has put himself on record saying: "The ground reality in Kashmir is that as elections (to the J&K Assembly) approach, the PDP (People's Democratic Party) is under pressure from the National Conference (NC) in the Valley, and in Jammu the BJP is ahead of the Congress". That the J&K Congress is unlikely to secure any sensational successes in the poll arena is explained by Nehru's finding: The NC and the charismatic Farooq Abdullah are extremely active and cannot be written off.
In his pointed reference to Omar Abdullah, Arun Nehru has written that though Omar runs the show, he "clearly lacks the warmth and approach necessary for a mass leader". Nehru's finding number two: Omar Abdullah is articulate and effective with the media, and with time, his effectivenes will improve.
And as he discusses the PDP and its esprit de corps, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, Arun Nehru has found: "Mufti and the PDP have Mehbooba (Mufti), and she is clearly the leader for the future". Mehbooba Mufti, says Nehru, hasx charisma, nerve and an understanding of the political thinking in Jammu and Kashmir. And Nehru's finding number four: "I think it is a mistake for Ghulam Nabi Azad to balance them with Muzaffar Beig. In the process, he has lost his position".
Nehru's finding number five: "The politics in Kashmir goes beyond Mufti and Ghulam Nabi Azad, and clearly, Sharad Pawar and Farooq Abdullah--both good friends for over two decades--had a plan for the future. I think Sonia Gandhi saw through the situation, and it is obvious that litle will be done to increase Sharad Pawar's clout within the Congress Party....The strategy for the future will depend on election results and the numbers game as it unfolds in the next six months".
Finding number six: "The Kashmir issue does little to indicate the likely winners, and we could see the return of Farooq Abdullah (of the NC in the Valley and the BJP in Jammu). Coalitions with a time-share agreement create natural disturbances, and the agenda of the PDP is very diferent from that of the Congress. Kashmir is a classic example of coalitions of the future, and both the NC and PDP can swing towards either combination at the Centre".
Arun Nehru's finding number seven: Sadly, neither the PDP nor the Congress has done much for the minorites (Kashmiri Pandits) in the Valley, and they continue to be refugees in their own country.
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