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| After the Amarnath heat and dust | | | Kalyani Shankar
It was all along clear that the Amarnath land row was only a pretext and every political party in Jammu & Kashmir was positioning itself for the Assembly election. But will there be a free and fair poll? Will the separatists opt for the ballot over the bullet?
The Amarnath yatra row has ended amicably with the players agreeing for a conciliatory deal. Jammu may have come back to normalcy with the cooperation of the political parties but what about the Valley? The Hurriyat and the PDP are not very happy with the deal and have criticised it. The top leaders of Hurriyat have been released but there are a number of others who are still under detention.
There are two big challenges before the Centre and the State Government. The first is restoring complete normalcy in the State and second is the conduct of Assembly elections.
One should take note of the timing of the deal between the two parties. The situation is brought under control in Jammu by enabling the Sri Amarnath Shrine Board construct temporary shelters during the two months of the pilgrimage with prefabricated structures. The yatra has just ended and soon the caves will become inaccessible covered with heavy snow. The pilgrims will return only next May and by that time, the shrine board should work out how to deal with the situation. Therefore, Jammu will be somewhat quiet now.
However, the situation in the Valley is different. The separatists in the Valley, who were not getting much attention, got a new lease of life after the Amarnath yatra row and now they are regrouping and raising their heads. Before things go out of control in the Valley, the Government should focus on the Valley. The month of Ramzan begins from Thursday and for a month, the Muslim-dominated Valley will be busy with Ramzan. While the situation is already under control in Jammu, tempers will cool down in the Valley because of Ramzan preoccupation for a month. This one-month time should be utilised by the Centre and the State Government to bring back normalcy. For instance, the efforts should be to isolate the separatist hawks from moderates in the Valley.
There are reports that the Centre is already on this job and wants to bring the separatists to a fresh round of talks. Even bringing them to the negotiating table again is a step forward. Insiders say that the Government is also responsive to the idea of trans-border trade between Muzzafarabad and Srinagar. However, this cannot be done until Islamabad gives its nod. One cannot expect any quick results in this regard in view of the domestic turbulence in Pakistan. Things could move forward only when the new Government settles down. For this purpose, the diplomatic route is being used.
Is the Centre ready to talk about greater autonomy to Jammu & Kashmir? This is one of the possibilities but this can go forward only when the separatists drop their demand for a separate State and the hawks among them like Geelani are not willing to do so. The Government knows that it has to take the views of leaders like Geelani, Farooq, and Yasin Malik who have a say in the Valley. Therefore, the best approach for the Centre and the State Government is to promote the moderates for a dialogue. This is a difficult task but the Government has to push it hard. There is also a view that there should be a parallel step of hot pursuit of militants to send a strong signal to the separatists.
The biggest question is about ensuing Assembly elections. Holding elections will be another challenge to the Centre and the State Government. Should the polls be held in October or should they be postponed to allow sometime to bring back complete normalcy? Will there be free and fair elections? Will the separatists participate in the polls or will they boycott it? These are sensitive questions which need immediate focus.
Everybody knows that the Amarnath yatra row was only a pretext and every political party in the State was positioning itself for the Assembly elections. The Governor's rule will end on January 10. The Election Commission has already set the ball rolling and convened a meeting of all political parties including the regional parties in the State on September 8 to discuss the possibilities. The Election Commission would like to hold polls in Jammu & Kashmir on time. The 2002 Assembly elections were held in September-October.
The EC seems to be of the view that due to Assembly elections in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan in November, which would require involvement of security forces on a large scale, it would be better to complete the Jammu & Kashmir elections before that. Moreover, once the winter sets in, the State will be snow-covered and it will be difficult to hold polls in December or January.
On the political side, there is likely to be a new regrouping because the Congress and the PDP have broken up as coalition partners while the NC is showing willingness to pair with the Congress. There is a divided opinion in the Congress about next month polls while the NC wants early elections. Naturally, a section in the Congress wants to cash in the benefits of the amicable deal with the Shrine board and hopes that it may do better in the Jammu region. The NC thinks that it will benefit by low polling in the Valley and it can improve its position in Jammu. The PDP, which has a major presence in the Valley, wants time to consolidate its position.
Ultimately, it is the combined opinion of the Congress and the NC with inputs from Home Ministry which will mobilise the political opinion in Jammu & Kashmir and the Election Commission will have to take into account the views of these two major parties. |
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