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| ….but if figures are fudged? | | | Early Times Reporter
Jammu | Sep 5
With population statistics harming the cause of Jammu in getting equitable share in political decision making process, a historian politician seems to have put in an extra effort to point out fudging of figures.
Whenever Jammu asks for hike in number of assembly constituencies to undo the regional bias in decision making, the voices are muzzled on pretext of population figures. “There is no reason to believe the ten lakh deficit between Kashmir and Jammu…the census figures have been grossly fudged to our loss”, says Dr Nimal Singh, a historian and BJP leader.
According to the 2001 census, the population of Kashmir province is 54,76,970. The break up is: Srinagar – 12,02,447, Budgam – 6,29,309 Ananatnag – 11,72,434, Pulwama – 6,52,607, Baramulla – 11,69,780 and Kupwara – 6,50,393. As per the same census, the population of Jammu province is 44,30,191. The break up is like this: Jammu – 15,88,772, Udhampur – 7,43,509, Kathua – 5,50,084, Poonch – 3,72,613, Rajouri – 4,83,284 and Doda – 6,91,929. In other words, the population difference between these two provinces is 10,46,779. This is a huge difference and, hence, not acceptable. Those who conducted the census have undoubtedly manipulated and fudged the census figures in order to cause a grievous injury to Jammu province and further consolidate the Valley’s stranglehold over it.
Nirmal says that the voters per constituency in Kashmir Valley are 49,723 while this rate in Jammu province is 66,521. “But the fact remains that the population difference between the two provinces is only marginal. The population of Jammu province is almost equal to that of Kashmir, if not more. In fact, it is more”, claims Nirmal Singh.
To substantiate his claims, the BJP leader points out, “it is universally accepted that more the population, more the number of voters. Since Jammu province has 1,76,436 more voters as compared to Kashmir, its population is obviously more as compared to Kashmir: The number of voters in Jammu province in 2002 is 30,59,986 – these figures do not include the Kashmiri voters, who have been exercising their franchise in exile ever since 1990, when the radical Islamists forced the Kashmiri Hindus to quit Kashmir - and in Kashmir province 28,83,550, including the migrant voters, whose number is approximately 1,00,000”.
“Why should the BJP question the assertion of the Kashmiri leadership that Kashmir’s population is more? Why because its assertion is illogical. The population difference between these two provinces at no point of time between 1941 and 1991 was never so huge”, feels Nirmal Singh.
For example, he says, in 1941, the population of Jammu province was more as compared to Kashmir. It’s true that many Muslims from Jammu province migrated to Pakistan in the wake of the country’s communal partition, but it’s equally true that nearly 100 per cent of the non-Muslims, including Hindus and Sikhs, migrated from the Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir and West Pakistan to Jammu to escape their physical liquidation. THe BJP is recalling all this to prove the point that the population of Jammu province in 1951 (no census in 1951 because of disturbed conditions) was more than that of Kashmir, notwithstanding the fact that the Valley leadership, in collaboration with New Delhi, earmarked 43 seats for the Valley in the Assembly as against 30 for Jammu in order to establish the Kashmiri domination over Jammu.
It was in 1961 that the Kashmiri leadership struck in a big way. The census figures were fudged to prove the Valley’s superiority in terms of population. As per the 1961 census, the population of Kashmir was 18,00,000 and that of Jammu province 16,00,000 – a difference of 2,00,000. In 1971, the population of Kashmir was 24,35,701 as against 20,75,640 of Jammu – a difference of 3,60,061. In 1981, the population of Kashmir was 31,34,904 and that of Jammu 27,18,113 – a difference of 4,16,791. No census operation took place in the state in 1991 because of the rise of militancy in Kashmir. But according to the Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Planning and Development Department, Jammu and Kashmir (J and K), the estimated population of Kashmir province was 40,10,202 and that of Jammu province 35,37,957 – a difference of 4,72,245.
The 2001 census figures for Kashmir and Jammu should have been equal or these should have established the Jammu superiority over Kashmir in terms of population. Why because nearly 3,00,000 Kashmiri Hindus, plus thousands of Sikhs, migrated to Jammu province in 1990. To say that this figure remained static all through and that the internally-displaced Kashmiri Hindus and Sikhs residing in Jammu province were shown as part of Kashmir province in 2001 would be to do a great injustice to Jammu province. All these internally-displaced Kashmiri-Hindus and Sikhs were shown as part of Jammu province because they were in Jammu at the time of census.
Let the BJP accepts the argument for the sake of argument that the fertility rate among the Muslims is higher as compared to the Hindus and other non-Muslim communities and that the prime cause responsible for the huge population difference between Kashmir and Jammu was the religious factor. Why should we apply this yardstick to Kashmir alone? If Kashmir was predominantly Muslim in 2001, the demographic profile of the Doda, Poonch and Rajouri districts in Jammu province was no different. These areas were, and continue to be, Muslim majority areas. The fertility rate in the Jammu province’s Muslim majority areas should be higher because these were, and are, the areas which house most of the 3 per cent of those people in the state who live below poverty line. It is generally believed that the poor produce more children.
The truth, in short, is that the population of Jammu province is equal to Kashmir, if not more, and that the endorses the oft-repeated accusation in Jammu province that those who conducted the census did manipulate the census figures to harm Jammu province. That the accusation appears well-founded can also be seen from the fact that the Digest of Statistics, which was published by the Directorate of Economic & Statistics, Planning and Development Department, J and K Government, in 1999, is silent on the literacy rate in the state in 1991 and 2001. It has only covered the period up to 1981. Why? This omission fact needs to be taken note.
The BJP wants the authorities to constitute a delimitation commission so that the people of Jammu obtain their due share in the assembly strictly as per the criteria laid down by the People’s Representation Act – land area, population/voters strength and nature of terrain (geographical conditions and accessibility). Section 4(2) of the Jammu and Kashmir Representation of People’s Act, 1957 envisages the above three criteria for the delimitation of constituencies, lays down that constituencies shall be delimited after every ten years, after every census and provides that “a correlation” has to be maintained “between the ration of each constituency and the number of seats allotted”.
Delimitation of constituencies is a constitutional requirement. BJP just cannot buy the argument advanced by certain vested interests that they cannot undertake this exercise because the National Conference Government amended the State Constitution which prevents the State Government from undertaking such an exercise till 2026. Whatever the State Government has done is illegal and against the very spirit of the Constitution and the Representation of People’s Act. Again, de-novo gerrymandering of constituencies never means an increase or a decrease in the existing number of seats. But it always means what the Representation of People’s Act envisages. |
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