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| Arguments for J and K poll | | | Neerja Chowdhury
The timing of the impending polls in Jammu and Kashmir has become a hot potato after the recent turbulence in the border state.
Six years ago, when state polls were held, 29.5 per cent people turned out to vote in the Valley and 54 per cent in Jammu, with the state average being 44 per cent.
Today if you go to Srinagar, people will tell you that not more than “2 per cent or 3 per cent or 4 per cent people” will come out and vote in the Valley if elections are held on schedule. The Central Government is inclined to hold elections soon, that is with the other states in the Hindi heartland going to the polls in November. The Election Commission of India has been holding consultations with the mainline parties to ascertain their views.
The Congress and the BJP want to go ahead with elections soon. Though Dr Farooq Abdullah has expressed himself in their favour, there has been some ambivalence in the way his son Omar Abdullah, who is the president of the National Conference, has formulated his views.
The NC,which has an organisational network, stands to gain from a low turnout in the Valley. The BJP hopes to encash the anger in Jammu on the Amarnath issue in 20 out of the 37 constituencies in Jammu which are Hindu dominated. The Congress, which would lose out in the Valley and in Hindu majority areas of Jammu, might retrieve some ground in Poonch and Rajouri in the remaining 17 seats where Muslim fears will be a factor, given the sharp communal polarisation that has taken place in the state. The PDP,which finds itself on the backfoot,is totally against polls. It argues that polls should not be held till the mainline parties feel confident of being able to go to the people and campaign.
There are compelling arguments for and against polls in Kashmir. Those for polls argue that they are the best way of normalising the situation. Governor’s rule comes to an end on January 7, 2009, and unless a popular government is in place by then, President's rule will follow. Central rule has certain connotations in J & K, and the state was under central rule during the turbulent period from 1990-96.
The absence of an elected government which is a buffer between Delhi and Srinagar would further compound the situation, sharpening the conflict between the Centre and the state, possibly making it even more difficult to hold elections as time goes by.
Conversely, elections can help create an instrument which could draw people away from street politics to approaching their MLAs to demand schools, roads, and power.
The re-establishment of the political process has its own advantages, and it gives an opportunity to the MLAS to engage with people on a host of issues.
This can act as a safety valve, giving vent to the pent up anger of the people. After all, the turnaround in the situation in Punjab took place, not under President’s rule but under Beant Singh. The government also assesses that the postponement of elections would be a vindication of the separatists’ stand. It calculates that people in rural areas would turn out to vote more than in the cities despite the separatists' boycott call.
After all, it would not be the first time they have called for a boycott. They did so in every election that has been held since 1996.
And yet, it was a 70 per cent turnout in the bypolls in 2005, and it touched 80 per cent in some places in the local elections.
The argument against the polls are equally persuasive. Given the upsurge in the Valley, with calls for azadi being raised by young people,the voter turnout might be very low, negating the painstaking process of normalisation that has taken place during the last decade.A small drop in the voter turnout in the Valley may pass but if it slumps to, say, 5 to 10 per cent, the polls would lose their legitimacy. It will send its own message to the international community and can be embarrassing for India.
Secondly, the present upsurge,which has now gone beyond the land row in the Valley, has not yet touched the villages to the extent it has affected the towns. The moment the elections are announced, they might hand over another agenda point to the separatists and they could use this as an opportunity to mobilise people also in the villages.
The mere announcement of elections may excite people to a greater frenzy against India in the present surcharged atmosphere in the Valley.
The fact is that today young people are driving the agitation as much as they are being driven by the separatist leaders. There is also change in the power balance within the Hurriyat, with the hawkish Syed Ali Shah Geelani coming to the fore again. And he appears once again to have the backing of Islamabad.
Gen Pervez Musharraf, who did not see eye to eye with the Jamat-e-Islami in Pakistan, had dumped the otherwise pro-Pak Geelani in favour of the more moderate Mirwaiz Omar Farooq. Now with the new army chief Gen Parvez Kayani not being so averse to the Jamaat, Pakistan would like to see Geelani drive the Hurriyat and his word may increasingly count with the underground militant organisations. The message to the Mirwaiz has been to play ball, and for the moment the separatist leaders are hanging together.
There have been indications of a revision in Islamabad’s strategy on Kashmir after the exit of Musharraf. It might now focus more on supporting political action in Kashmir than relying exclusively on backing militancy.
There is a view here that Pakistan stands to gain from a disruption in elections in J & K and we, thanks to the small and short-sighted games of our leaders over the Amarnath Yatra, have played into their hands.Given that situation,we have to move with great caution.
When to hold elections in J & K is not an easy call to take though there is nothing like a perfect moment. Clearly, the priority should be to bring down the temperatures in the Valley first before embarking on an electoral exercise. While the government gives a clear message that India will not give up Kashmir, it has also to reach out to people in the Valley, and restore their confidence that it means business in going ahead with the process of dialogue and to do it with a sincerity ! |
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