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| Manmohan Singh, Musharraf face domestic pressure | | They are unlikely to produce dramatic breakthroughs | | B L KAK
NEW DELHI: All eyes are focused on Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, and Pakistan President, Gen. Parvez Musharraf. The two leaders are due to hold a long-awaited summit meeting at the weekend in Cuba on the sidelines of Non-Aligned Movement nations. Both of them hope to reignite peace moves that have sputtered to a halt.
Will they produce any dramatic breakthroughs during their coming meeting, their first in a year? 'Unlikely' would that would have to be as an answer to this question. The reason: Both Manmohan Singh and Gen. Musharraf face domestic political pressure. Their job is by no means easy. They would be considered to have made progress if they set a schedule to revive formal negotiations between their diplomats, called off by New Delhi after the July 11 train bombings in Mumbai, officials and analysts said.
Looking at what is happening inside Pakistan and the responses that have come from Gen. Musharraf about India's concerns on terrorism, competent analysts do not expect any major breakthrough. India-Pakistan peace process, launched nearly three years ago after the nuclear-armed neighbours came to the brink of a fourth war, has been battered by separatist violence in Kashmir and deadly attacks elsewhere across India, blamed on Pakistan-based Islamist militants.
New Delhi has reiterated the carnage in Mumbai, that killed nearly 200 people, was engineered by Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba, and responded by postponing peace talks between top diplomats from the two sides. India has since reaffirmed its commitment to the peace process. But it has, at the same time, remained cagey about resuming formal negotiations, which themselves have made slow progress.
It is obvious that Manmohan Singh would be looking for some concrete assurances from Gen. Musharraf to crack down on groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and live up to a commitment he first made at the beginning of peace talks in January 2004. Kashmir and cros-border terrorism will definitely figure at the talks between Manmohan Singh and Pakistan President. However, indications are by no means uncertain that in Havana radical new thinking is unlikely to be unveiled.
In fact, on his way to Cuba, Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, said: "There is a problem of trust deficit between our two countries". Pakistan has denied any role in the Mumbai bombings or earlier attacks across India but suggested militant violence was unlikely to abate until the Kashmir dispute was settled. It wants India to enter into serious negotiations about the long-term future of Kashmir, and show good faith by pulling out some of the hundreds of thousands of troops stationed there.
"The Pakistan side will emphasise the demilitarisation of Kashmir," said Talat Masood, a former Pakistani general and analyst. On the other hand, Indian analysts believe that Gen. Musharraf-- under pressure over the killing of a regional nationalist leader, struggling to tackle tribal and Taliban fighters on the Afghan border and facing elections in the coming year-- will be loathe to open a new front against anti-Indian Islamist militants.
Instead Pakistan President threw the ball back into India's court on Tuesday, appealing for New Delhi to consider a compromise over Kashmir since Pakistan was willing to do the same. But Indian Prime Minister is unlikely to oblige, at least not until he believes Pakistan has curbed Islamist militants. It is not just this Prime Minister but no Indian Prime Minister will be able to give away anything that cannot be politically sustained at home.
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