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| LS polls unlikely in Feb | | | Amba Charan
EC will not be able to strain its nerves for LS poll schedule before the J&K results are out on December 28.
Since the time UPA won the much maligned vote of confidence in Lok Sabha (LS) on July 22 last, the media has been agog with speculation about the time of the elections otherwise due in April-May in the normal course. But now there seems the least possibility of the nation going to the polls for the House of the People earlier than due. There are valid reasons for this.
LS elections could easily have been preponed to coincide with the elections to the assembly elections in the six States of Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Jammu & Kashmir. But this was not done with a purpose. According to present indications, the Congress is toying with the idea of going in for elections in February next year. But it is not the Congress-led UPA which has to take the final decision; this duty and responsibility rests with the Election Commission (EC) which does not go by government diktats but by its own assessment and judgement.
For holding elections earlier than due, the first pre-requisite is the dissolution of the present Lok Sabha by UPA. This it is not going to do before the results of the assembly elections are out on December 8. The UPA will be motivated for early elections only if Congress is able to comeback to power in at least two of the four States that matter among the six going to the polls. While as a State J&K does not matter much in the electoral arithmetic of the nation, the trends in Jammu may, to an extent, have an impact. Mizoram results have no bearing on the national polls.
Therefore, if UPA wants an early election in February, it must first dissolve the Lok Sabha immediately after the State election results on December 8, not later than December 15 in any case. There is another snag. EC will not be able to strain its nerves for LS poll schedule before the J&K results are out on December 28.
There is another hurdle. EC on October 1 has already directed the State Election Commissions (except the six States already in the process of assembly elections) to go in for the mandatory revision of electoral rolls as on January 1, 2009. The final electoral rolls are scheduled to be published on January 10. As already explained by the EC, the revision of electoral rolls in the six States in the process of assembly polls, will be taken in hand only after completion of the present electoral process there. This clearly means that the revision of electoral rolls in these States cannot be completed earlier than February 29 at the most. In other States it has taken more than 3 months with EC writing to States on October 1 and final publication set for January 10. Therefore, the EC will be legally handicapped to go in for announcing the LS poll schedule before February 29. In that situation the February poll stands ruled out. Then, there is also schedule for examinations in various educational institutions in February-March.
Before announcing the poll schedule, EC has also to go in for the essential preliminary exercise for poll preparedness in various States, law and order situation, marshalling of security forces for poll duty and the like. For 2004 Lok Sabha elections, EC announced the election schedule on March 23 for a four-phased polling schedule commencing on April 20 and final phase concluding on May 10. The counting of votes commenced on May 13 and the whole election process was scheduled to be completed by May 25. That means that from the day of commencement of the schedule of filing of nominations on March 24, it took full two months to complete the whole process.
If for the 2009 LS elections, EC does not take more time than it did in 2004, it can under no circumstances complete the process of filing of nominations, polling and declaration of results in less than two months in any case. No schedule of elections can be announced before completion of the mandatory revision of electoral rolls in six States going to polls this November-December and this can in no way be completed before February 29. Going ahead with LS elections without the mandatory revision of electoral rolls in the six States will be discriminatory. It will also amount to denial of the right to franchise to those who become eligible to vote on attaining the age of 18 on January 1, 2009 in these States.
Whatever the electoral verdict in these six States and whatever the intentions of Congress to have LS elections in February next, its possibility from legal and practical perspective remains remote. |
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