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| Obama’s good for India | | | Sanjaya Baru
US President-elect Barack Obama’s most detailed comment on relations with India are contained in the personal letter he addressed to the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, when the latter visited Washington DC in September 2008.
"I would like to see US-India relations grow across the board to reflect our shared interests, shared values, shared sense of threats, and ever burgeoning ties between our two economies and societies," he said.
He went on to add that "the recent bombings (in New Delhi) remind us that we are both victims of terrorist attacks on our soil, and we share a common goal of defeating these forces of extremism".
He wanted the US and India to work together "to promote our democratic values and strengthen legal institutions in South Asia and beyond".
"Imagine our two democracies in action," said Mr Obama. "Indian laboratories and industry collaborating with American laboratories and industry to discover innovative solutions to today’s energy problems. That’s the kind of new partnership I would like to build with India as President".
India’s relations with the United States have evolved considerably during the past decade. The turning point was President Bill Clinton’s visit to India in 1999. The foundation for the transformed Indo-US relationship was laid in the last year of the Clinton administration and the first term of the Bush administration.
The conclusion of the historic India-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement marked the highpoint of that transformation.
Mr Obama takes charge at a time when there is bipartisan support in the US, and dominant parties’ support in India, for a stronger and deeper bilateral relationship.
Two sets of factors have shaped this transformation. These can be classified as "real" and "ideological". The "real" factors include India’s economic growth and openness, the growing influence of the Indian-American community in US political and economic life, and a shared concern with jihadi terrorism and greater energy security.
The "ideological" factors include a shared desire to ensure a multipolar Asia in the context of the rise of China, and a shared commitment to democracy and pluralism.
While Mr Bush may not have been interested in a multipolar world, Mr Obama has shown greater willingness to work even at the global level with other "major powers", including India. On the other hand, Mr Obama may be less wary of a rising China than Mr Bush was.
All these factors will endure and continue to work for improved India-US relations in the foreseeable future.
The two countries will, however, have differences on issues like climate change and multilateral trade policy. While differences are likely to persist on other issues like nuclear non-proliferation, some also expect differences to crop up on issues such as Kashmir.
But these are by no means unmanageable. So, there is no reason to expect a reversal of the recent trend of improved relations evolving in the direction of a full-fledged strategic partnership.
Mr Obama’s "First 100 Days" in office will coincide with the "Last 100 Days" of Prime Minister Singh’s present term. For both of them the economy and terrorism will remain the main pre-occupations. In fact, Dr Singh is likely to find a more sympathetic listener in Mr Obama than in Mr Bush.
Indo-US economic relations are poised to enter a new phase with the conclusion of the civil nuclear cooperation agreement. The possibility of increased high-tech trade in defence, space, nuclear and other strategic areas has the potential to sharply increase bilateral trade, especially US exports to India. Faced with the task of pulling the US economy out of a potential depression, Mr Obama is unlikely to harm this process by reversing any of the initiatives taken by the Bush administration.
However, renewed protectionism in the US could harm Indian business interests. India will have to be pro-active in ensuring that any economic rescue package in the US does not harm Indian trade interests.
Mr Obama’s two key economic advisors, Mr Paul Volcker and Mr Lawrence Summers, are personal friends of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and have high professional regard for him, and have deep interest in closer economic relations with India.
Both are likely to favour a larger role for India in global economic management as well.
India would also watch closely what position Mr Obama adopts on the Doha Development Round of multilateral trade negotiations.
More specifically, India would be interested in his administration’s approach to outsourcing and to investments by US firms in India. It is likely that the Obama administration would restrict H1-B visas. But this is no longer a major issue in India, given the skill shortage within India and the emergence of other destinations for software engineers.
However, outsourcing and services export opportunities remain important for India as its merchandise trade deficit grows.
India would welcome the tone of Mr Obama’s reference to terrorism in the region in his letter to Dr Singh. He had pointed out that the "cowardly acts of mass murder are a stark reminder that India suffers from the scourge of terrorism on a scale few other nations can imagine".
He also added that he would urge all countries to cooperate with Indian authorities in tracking down the perpetrators of these atrocities.
In fact, the Indian view on the so-called "war on terror" is closer to the Mr Obama view than the Bush doctrine.
Dr Singh too has not been given adequate credit for speaking out openly against the war in Iraq. Even in July 2005, on the very day the decision to seek a civil nuclear cooperation agreement was announced in Washington DC, Prime Minister Singh said at the National Press Club in Washington DC, "’it was our sincere view that it (invasion of Iraq) was a mistake..."
Equally, India has always sought more focused global attention on the situation in Afghanistan. Mr Obama’s renewed focus on Afghanistan would be welcomed by India.
However, concern has been expressed by some commentators about Mr Obama’s statements linking the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan to that in Kashmir and the possibility of a revival of the "hyphenation with Pakistan" in the Indo-US relationship.
One of the great achievements of the Bush administration has been the "de-hyphenation" of the India-Pakistan equation from the India-US relationship. India would hope that Mr Obama does not reverse the clock on this though Pakistan may well seek a re-hyphenation for its own political and diplomatic reasons. Such a re-hyphenation could jeopardise progress at the India-Pakistan bilateral level. Moreover, Indian and Pakistani public opinion would favour a bilateral solution to the Kashmir issue rather than one actively mediated by the US.
One of the significant developments in India-Pakistan relations has been the enormous progress made, to a considerable extent through the "back channel", in bilateral diplomacy.
Indian, Pakistani and "Kashmiri" political leaderships have shown remarkable maturity in developing such credible options for solving the problem. Concrete progress has been delayed by political developments in Pakistan during 2007-08, and could be resumed once the political leadership in Pakistan feels more settled and confident.
Mr Obama would have to resist attempts by his advisors or other self-proclaimed do-gooders to get the US back into this equation.
The Bush administration was wise to restrict its involvement to "blessing" the Manmohan-Musharraf and the Manmohan-Zardari dialogue. That is exactly what Mr Obama should do as well.
Several analysts have pointed to the influence of the so-called "Ayatollahs of non-proliferation" within the Democratic Party, in general, and among Obama advisors, in particular.
While Mr Obama was responsible for a key, aborted, "killer amendment" to the Hyde Act, he subsequently recanted and supported the 123 Agreement. In his letter he expressed admiration for Dr Singh’s courage he showed in shepherding the civil nuclear cooperation agreement through Parliament, the IAEA, and the NSG.
"I was pleased to vote by proxy for the agreement in (Senate Foreign Relations) Committee today, and I very much hope we can vote on this agreement before the US Congress goes out of session," he said.
However, New Delhi would want further clarification on Mr Obama’s statement that the "civil nuclear cooperation agreement can open the door to greater collaboration with India on non-proliferation issues", as well as his assertion of commitment to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
India would, however, welcome Mr Obama’s statement that he is "committed to the goal of a world without nuclear weapons, and will make this a central element of US nuclear weapons policy". India has already welcomed the Kissinger, Nunn, et al proposal on this. |
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