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| A Poll Full Of Many Surprises | | | Brij Bhardwaj
The election process started in Jammu and Kashmir on Nov 17 when votes were cast for ten seats spread across the State in three regions that is Kashmir Valley, Jammu province and Ladakh, but three regions voted or abstained for reasons which have no common trend running. In Kashmir valley, the issue was the call for boycott given by separatists, in Jammu the allotment of land for Amarnath shrine board and in Ladakh the issue of turning the region into a union territory to be ruled directly by Center.
All these diverse trends will influence the election of candidates who will finally have to sit together in State Assembly and find common solutions for the problems of the State. This is the first time when relations between three regions of the State are under serious threat. The differences which were built up on the issue of allotment of land to Amarnath Shrine Board remain strong even today and large sections in Kashmir who suffered as a result of economic blockade during the agitation in Jammu are not prepared to have even normal trade between the two regions not to speak of close cooperation between the two regions of the same State.
Even some level headed Kashmiris who never supported anti-Indian sentiments are of the view that the economic blockade reminded them of times when Pakistan imposed ban on trade to force the State to accede with Pakistan despite having a standstill agreement with the Maharaja who was in power. These wounds will take a long time to heal was the general opinion. There are also strong feelings about the conduct of Gen. Sinha, the State Governor who played a prominent role in the land transfer deal.
It is probably for the first time that a State Governor with Army background is facing so much of flack for his partisan role, his personal conduct and links with some dubious elements. The charges being voiced are serious, but one wonders how they could be inquired into or verified. There is,however, no doubt that no Governor ever posted in the State after it was merged with India has become so controversial as Gen Sinha. The former Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed has leveled some serious charges against him and there are few in the State who have a word of praise for the Governor Sinha who created a serious rift between two important regions of State and created a divide.
In a piece devoted to pre-poll survey, the role of Governor needs to be discussed in detail as he has undone many gains made in the last ten years after the poll process had brought about near normalcy in the State. During this period travel between the Indian Kashmir and Pakistan held part of Kashmir had been restored. The militancy was on decline and Hurriyat leaders particularly the moderate wing led by Molvi Farooq had started a dialogue with the Center and there was hope that they may agree to join the poll process in near future.
The talks with Pakistan were on to resume trade across the line of control as a part of the confidence building measure. The controversy over the allotment of land to the Shrine Board changed the situation completely. The pro-Pak elements got a new life and both wings of Hurriyat were forced to join the radical elements in a new wave of protest. The entire controversy was a result of inept and wrong reading of situation by State Chief Minister who failed to understand that land transfer was a sensitive issue and could have such strong reaction when he submitted to the pressure of the Governor. One hopes that the poll will help in retrieving the situation.
Another heartening factor is the fickle nature of Kashmiris who can be provoked easily, but also cool down fast. One hopes that election will help in cooling down tempers .The Government needs to understand that situation in State has changed and it has to deal with youth who have grown during the period of insurgency and have had no links with freedom struggle in Kashmir or leadership in India which had age old bonds linking families and leaders.
The National Conference of today under the leadership of Dr Farooq Abdullah is only a shadow of its former self. In Kashmir Valley it faces serious challenge from PDP which has virtually accepted the Musharraf formula for resolving the State and talks about use of dual currency and free movement across the border. This obviously is a step ahead of the demand for autonomy voiced by National Conference. But PDP is also tainted by its association with Coalition Government which ruled the State in Last few years and the dubious role of its Ministers in the State Cabinet on the issue of land allotment to the shrine board.
Under the circumstances, one can safely predict no clear winner will emerge in these elections. Three political parties that is National Conference, Congress and PDP will get maximum number of seats. None of them will have the numbers to form a Government on its own and will have to form a coalition to run the State. The BJP will improve its numbers but will remain a marginal player. Independents, BSP, Panthers party, and Awami Action committee of G.M. Shah have put up more candidates this time, but they at best may only open their account by winning a seat or two.
The Independents will be available for horse trading as different groups try to improve their numbers as there is a lot of resentment in National Conference, Congress and PDP over distribution of tickets where some important personalities have been ignored. The presence of candidates like the daughter of A.G Lone who was killed by militants even though he supported demand for independence will also provide some excitement as family influence is expected to carry her through.
A clear conclusion is like the country Jammu and Kashmir Assembly will have a hung house with old players still at helm. One hopes that they would do better and have learnt some lessons from mistakes in the past. (This is part two of article on Kashmir after a visit to the state before the poll). |
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