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| Dec 28: The Independents’ Day | | | ZAFAR CHOUDHARY
Jammu, Dec 10: As people across Jammu and Kashmir keep their fingers crossed to see results of keenly contested assembly elections, the eve of December 28 –when votes are counted –is very likely to be a day of independents and rebels.
Three keen contenders in the ongoing elections –the Congress, Peoples Democratic Party and National Conference –are threatened by each other as much as they are facing challenges from their own rebellious men who jumped into the fray as independent candidates. This in-house damage is more perverse in Congress and National Conference. Congress is apparently the badly hit party which has number of rebels almost matching the official nominees.
In sync with the national level political scene, Jammu and Kashmir also appears to be headed for a perpetual coalition culture where potential individuals and smaller groups are eating into size of larger parties and leading to a fractured verdict. There is, however, a small difference. In the battle for Indian Lok Sabha it is the emergence of smaller and regional parties which have shrunk influence of larger parties like the Congress and the BJP. In case of Jammu and Kashmir, the challenge is posed by the independent contestants even though the smaller groups or local units of other national and regional political parties too pocket a significant vote share.
Results of 2002 elections reveal that the credit of fracturing the verdict goes mainly to the independent contestants. Despite a strong wave against it, the National Conference would not have faced a humiliating fall from the grace if the challenge was not posed by the independents. The 2002 elections saw as many as 14 independent candidates returning to the legislative assembly. Though only six of them were the National Conference rebels but the party lost at more than 12 other places due to division of vote bank between its rebels and official nominees.
This time too the National Conference is facing more or less the same problem but it is Congress which has been done to a near collapse after being stormed by the deserters. Over ten former Ministers and formers legislators or even sitting legislators (one member of the Legislative Council) are fighting against official Congress nominees which have potential rebels in 33 constituencies across the state. Even though the party has allowed some rebels of its choice at some places to cut into the vote banks of rivals but most of the places the independent candidates either appear to have secured a foothold for them or ensured that the Congress nominee is defeated.
‘We are trying to persuade the rebels to withdraw and if they won’t, a strict action will be taken against them’’, said Congress General Secretary and Union Minister Prithvi Raj Chavan here today.
The number of independent candidates per constituency is far higher on the seats of Kashmir Valley than in Jammu. For example, the Sopore constituency (home segment of Syed Ali Shah Geelani ) in North Kashmir Kashmir has as many as 24 independent candidates. Interestingly Sopore has a total of 26 candidates and official nominees of registered and recognized political parties are only two of them.
Kupwara district, giving five constituencies, which went to polls in third phase, had 71 total candidates and 32 of them were independents. Anantnag in South Kashmir is the only district where number of independent candidates is not very high. There are 72 candidates in the fray and only nine of them are independents. Interestingly it is noted that in Kashmir Valley, the number of independent candidates is higher in central and north Kashmir in comparison to other parts.
In fourth phase of elections involving districts of Baramulla, Badgam, Udhampur and Reasi, there were total of 256 candidates and as many as 82 of them were independent contestants.
Though a majority of the independent candidates are non-serious contestants or those with very little base but the winning scope of a significant number of them cannot be ruled out. Many of the independent are likely to have their day when votes are counted on December 28. Eventually these will be people performing a key role in formation of next government. |
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