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DAYA SAGAR
At last the elections to 11th J&K Legislative Assembly were over on 24 . With this came the end of the pressures on the political leaders who were forced for over two months to plead innocence, pledge for honesty, sincerity, truthfullness in future and beg for the mistakes of the past.Most of those from Congress, PDP and National Conference who have contested the elections have been under severe stress for last 3 days and today their veins are throbing since early hours. The leaders will now show their usual colours and the voter citizen will now on wards remain in search for a glimpse of those who had been throwing big promises, bid hugs and evening get togethers since November this year.
28th December if brings even 28 winning MLAs for any single party, it would be greatest of the successes one can have under the circumstances. And as far as my analysis goes if at all there could be any party who could score 28 or more seats on its own it could be only Farooq Abdullah's National Conference.And in case NC fails to secure such number then it could be only due to its leaders belonging to Kashmir Valley having hurt the sentiments and ego of the people of Jammu Region and some local NC leaders from Jammu region having failed to carry truthfully with the cause of National Conference.
The voters have turned out in large numbers during first six phases. In the seventh phase too ( 24th Dec ) voters did come out in big numbers looking at the polling % in Srinagar District during 2002 ( only 3 to 15% ). In some areas in Srinagar District there has been 3 to 4 times the voter turn out in 2008 as compared to 2002. Both Jammu Region and Kashmir Region have shown large polling percentages in general. The elections have surely sent a message to the world community that (i ) The people of Kashmir do believe that democratic institutions can work in J&K (ii) The Kashmiri masses are surely not clamouring for Pakistan (iii ) the separatist elements in J&K surely stand at lower ladder in comparison to Parties like National Conference and Congress ( I have not included PDP in list since PDP has yet to prove that it could survive without separatist like signals) (iv) Indian security forces do have control over Kashmir and (v ) people in Pakistan in general and those in POK would have some questions for their governments in view of manner and ease which elections tl J&K Legislative Assembly have been held in November / December this year.
In the circumstances where the J&K affairs have been made to land over the years the response of the masses to the election process does have some relation to rejection of the separatists but surely not total. If we look at Kashmir Region we have to also look at the policy and programmes that National Conference extended immediately before the elections were announced. PDP and its leadership in Mehbooba and others had been left free to advocate their self rule, joint Indo -Pak Control over J&K affairs and even the use of Pakistan currency in Kashmir ( only J&K not India ) . The UPA and Congress did criticise PDP but did not fully disown PDP. Sayeed Ali Shah Geelani openly declared in August 08 that he was not an Indian and went to the extent of motivating common Kashmiri to call his self a Pakistani. and he was free on the road. National Conference had so far in the past always rejected any talks with separatist elements (regarding 1947 accession of J&K with India ) like Geelani or Omar Farooq. Farooq Abdullah had even gone to the extent of offering to open the borders for those who do not want to stay in India. But this time NC had shown some change in policy. It was a wisely drafted shift under compulsions. NC did reject the separatist but also suggested to the GOI to listen to what Omar Farooq or Geelani or Sajjad oe Shabir or Yasin had to say. NC for the first time asked every one to take part in elections with the plea that this will not be a voting on Kashmir issue. The message sent was that Elections are required simply for running day to day soci economic affairs of local interest. Omar Abdullah appealed to separatist to also participate assuring that this will in no way close Kashmir issue . With this the NC compaigned for elections keeping the Kashmir Issue and separatist movement on one side. The message was well received by the people and hence they came out in good numbers. The other reason was that the number of candidates was very large and even if a candidate managed to bring out only 1000 to 1500 voter in a constituency the total turnout would have been 20 % to 30 % in most of the constituencies. No doubt in Srinagar District the separatist did work very hard to save their stakes but still the turn out though small was 3 to 4 times the 2002 turnout. In Jammu Province also the voter turn out was large and the reasons were little different that Kashmir. Ofcourse there were large number of candidates in Jammu region as well. But a good number of rabels of National Conference, Congress and some Jammu Region centric leaders increased the voter turn out with their efforts. To some extent the Amarnath Land issue agitation too had made some people anthusiastic regarding the assembly elections. People wanted to vote. Although many names had been missed in the voting lists, many names were wrongly written, many names were distantly listed and some voters were wrongly mentioned as male where as they were females but still it was the seriousness that the voters showed in searching for their names in the lists that added to voting percentage. Had it been left to only election department then thousands of the voters would have missed to cast a vote. The BJP compaign programme appeared to be not that sound and if atall BJP is able to secure more than 7 to 10 seats it would be for the reasons of people supporting BJP on their own in view of Amarnath Land issue and not due to efforts of BJP poll managers.
Looking at the indicators that have been collected from different sources , I am of the opinion that National Conference and Congress would emerge as the two parties with largest MLAs. No one will reach 44 MLAs mark. Congress will not go in for any alliance with BJP. In view of elections to Lok Sabha due in April 2009 Congress would prefer alliance with National Conference , otherwise in case elections were not due for Lok Sabha in April 2009Congress could go with PDP as well as in first go. Any how one thing is sure that National Conference will not go in alliance with PDP nor will PDP go with National Conference. But if atall NC and PDP go for alliance to form a government then all separatist elements in Kashmir will come together and GOI will have to redraft all strategies on Kashmir. As regards BJP is concerned if atall it has to become partner to any Government it could be only with National Conference. There is very less possibility of any Government to come up without participation or Congress or National Conference or PDP and BJP on its own coming to power with the help of independents and other smaller parties / groups. May be if BJP and NC come together this could be the best out come both in the Interest of India in general and J&K in particular . The separatist elements and agendas would be best settled under this arrangement.
All these days the voter from Jammu Region had kept his cards close to chest particularly in Jammu, Samba, Kathua, Reasi, Rajouri and ramban Districts. As regards Kashmir Valley the voters were sure on one thing that they could vote for individuals of their choice from PDP / Congress/ NC and when ever there would be requirement for standing together for the cause of Kashmir region all MLAs would stand together irrespective of their party. There fore no party in Kashmir Valley would secure this time more than 18 to 22 seats in Kashmir Valley. In Jammu region togetherness factor on regional basis is wanting and the districts of Rajouri, Poonch, Kishtwar , Doda and Udhampur would differently as compared to Jammu, Samba , and Kathua . Likely score in the absence of sound indicators could be NC 24 to 30 seats, PDP 16 to 20 seats, Congress 14 to 22 seats, BJP 7 to 10 seats, JKNPP /BSP/ CPM / JSM group 4 to 6 seats , independents/PDF/ others 7 to 10.
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