news details |
|
|
| NC can’t afford another term out of power | | | Daya Sagar
In my election result forecast that appeared in english dailies published from Jammu on 28 December I had viewed that 28th December if brings even 28 winning MLAs for any single party, it would be greatest of the successes and if at all there could be any party who could score 28 or more seats on its own it could be only Farooq Abdullah's National Conference. And in case NC failed to secure such number then it could be only due to its leaders belonging to Kashmir Valley having hurt the sentiments and ego of the people of Jammu Region and some local NC leaders from Jammu region having failed to carry truthfully with the cause of National Conference. And National Confereence did secure 28.seats. The analysis had further said that no party in Kashmir Valley would secure more than 18 to 22 seats . And the results have not been much different. Except.that one seat each more than projected have gone in the bag of BJP and PDP.May be if BJP and NC come together ( in view of declarations made by Omar Abdullah , it would be just dreaming sweet by the people of J&K ) this could be the best out come both in the Interest of India in general and J&K in particular . The separatist elements and agendas would be best settled under this arrangement. Surely in view of the declaration as made by Omar Abdullah Congress has emerged as key player in forming government.No doubt BJP leaders had not earlier ruled out any alliance with NC before 28 Dec 08. BJP now too has outrightly declared that it will support no alliance but this declaration surely is in response to Omar Abdullah rejecting remotest possiblity of any alliance with BJP. For National Conference too times would not be that easy, more so in case Dr. Farooq Abdullah himself moves out of the power scene. Congress , the injured tiger , would not so easily rest. Rajiv Farooq accord scars should be still visible.
National Conference , though it secured 28 Seats in 2002 Assembly elections also, did not show keen interest in forming the government. No doubt one of the reasons was that Dr. Farooq had not contested elections and Omar Abdullah was defeated in the field. Had NC staked the claim then , some other NC leader ( may be A.R. Rather ) would have become CM or Dr. Farooq had to return to state politics where as he was eyeing at national scene. NC might have also hoped that the alliances by others would fall. But staying out of power has adversly affected the political stakes for NC.But now this time both PDP and NC are desperate to hold the reins of the government. NC sees its total loss in times to come in case PDP again takes to power seat. PDP is out to dig out the roots of NC in Kashmir valley. So NC would like to head the government and also project it as saviour of Kashmir cause and would like to carry on with the torch of "Kashmir issue settlement" to take lead over PDP ( main stream party allegedly carrying separatist agenda).Saif u Din Soz has not ruled out or ruled in an alliance with the PDP,May be it was in view of this that Dr Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah had been to New Delhi for gauging Congress mood.
In the circumstances where the J&K affairs have been made to land over the years the response of the masses to the election process does have some relation to rejection of the separatists but surelyit is not total.This could well be inferred from the statements as made by Omar Abdullah immediately after he reached Srinagar after the counting started on 28 December. Omar Abdullah out rightly said that at no cost the alliance would be made with BJP. He almost declared that NC will go for alliance with Congress. Dr. Farooq Abdullah, though talked of doors to be always kept open by political parties, too said that no alliance with BJP could be in consideration. Later in the afternoon the NC stalwarts accused BJP of raising communal sentiments in Jammu for securing mandate , this clearly showed that National Conference is feeling some pressures of the separatist culture having taken deep roots in Kashmir Valley otherwise atleast Dr. Farooq abdullah would not have gone to the extent of accusing the voters who voted for BJP of being communal. Such attitude could be expected from any one but never from Dr. Farooq Abdullah. The circumstances as now prevail in Kashmir valley could be well gauged from the attitude of the National Conference leadership towards J&K affairs.There was a clever shift in the policy and programmes that National Conference extended for people of Kashmir valley immediately before the elections were announced. PDP and its leadership in Mehbooba and others had been left free to advocate their self rule, joint Indo -Pak Control over J&K affairs and even the use of Pakistan currency in Kashmir ( only J&K not India ) . The UPA and Congress did criticise PDP for election purposes but did not fully disown PDP. Sayeed Ali Shah Geelani openly declared in August 08 that he was not an Indian and went to the extent of motivating common Kashmiri to call his self a Pakistani and he was still free on the road. National Conference had so far in the past always rejected any talks with separatist elements (regarding 1947 accession of J&K with India ) . Farooq Abdullah had in past gone to the extent of offering to open the borders for those who do not want to stay in India. But this time it was a cleverly drafted shift under compulsions. NC did reject the separatist but also suggested to the GOI to listen to what Omar Farooq or Geelani or Sajjad or Shabir or Yasin had to say. NC this time asked every one to take part in elections pleading that this will not be a voting on Kashmir issue. The message sent by National Conference was that elections were for running day to day socio economic affairs of local interest. Omar Abdullah appealed to separatist to also participate in a way assuring that this will in no way close Kashmir issue . With this the NC compaigned for elections keeping the Kashmir Issue and separatist movement on one side. The message was well received by the people and hence they came out in good numbers.
But now Dr. Farooq Abdullah will have to play a front role to save his party and people of Kashmir valley from further loss. No doubt National Conference would be pushed further back to the wall in Jammu region in case Farooq Abdullah withdraws from the scene. PDP has already made inroads in Rajouri and Poonch at the cost of NC . Socio communal disintegration can be checked only in case the reins of National Conference remain in the hands of Farooq Abdullah. He is wise enough to sense the loss his party suffered when he left his party to 2nd rung leadership in 2002. He should not take risk this time. Although the well wishers of Congress and PDP would suggest Dr. Farooq to not hold the reins of power himself.
Congress had increased its MLAs from 20 to 31 since Oct 2002 till July 2008 and this way it has lost 14 MLAs in 2008 elections. NC had 28 in 2002 and 24 in July 2008 so it has gained 4 MLAs and PDP had 16 in 2002 and 18 in July 2008 so has also to gained that way 3 seats in 2008 Dec. BJP has gained 10 seats but still much introspection need be done by BJP. It will not be that easy for BJP make this gain yield more for times to come.The gain will have to be cemented .Congress has its own compulsions for not going in alliance with BJP nor there is any scope for same with all independents come together. In view of elections to Lok Sabha due in April 2009 Congress would prefer alliance with National Conference , otherwise in case elections were not due for Lok Sabha in April 2009 Congress could go with PDP as well as in first go. Any how one thing is sure that National Conference will not so easily go in alliance with PDP nor will PDP go with National Conference. But if atall NC and PDP go for alliance to form a government then all separatist elements in Kashmir will come together and GOI will have to redraft all strategies on Kashmir. So in view of the numbers that Congress and NC have the alliance is all clear possiblility looking at the elections to Lok Sabha in April 2009 since alliance of Congress with PDP could be used by BJP at the national level as alliance by Congress with separatist ideology.
As regards Kashmir Valley the voters were sure on one thing that they could vote for individuals of their choice from PDP / Congress/ NC and when ever there would be requirement for standing together for the cause of Kashmir region all MLAs would stand together. The regionalism has taken deep roots in the common mind set of the valley people and the political leadership can not afford to overlook this. No doubt even a faint hint from the voters of Jammu region that some day the people of Jammu region may also collectively work for common cause, has raised alarms in the minds of the Kashmir centric leaders and it appears that they would now try to concentrate all energies in Valley.
Some journalists in New Delhi are also understood to be lobbying for a PDP-Congress . PDP has a lobby in New Delhi like NC. Some Congress leaders in Jammu feel that a repeat coalition with the PDP would be 'suicidal' for the party in Jammu region. It willbe in the overall interest of NC in particular and PDP in general to seek allies from Jammu based parties .The BJP too could have a significant role to play in the State politics. Farooq Abdullah is required at the national level too but he is particularly needed to fight the anti India forces and their supporters in J&K.
In Jammu region togetherness factor on regional basis has been found wanting.The districts of Rajouri, Poonch, Kishtwar , Doda and Udhampur have behaved differently as compared to Jammu, Samba , Reasi, and Kathua . The BJP compaign programme appeared to be not that sound and the 11 seats BJP has secured are more due to discrimination issues as were deliberated by the people of Jammu region on the side lines of Amarnath Land issue agitation and not due to efforts of BJP poll managers. The poor projection of common needs and interests by BJP reflects in the loss suffered by BJP in atleast five constituencies ( Gandhinagar , Vijaypur, Akhnoor , Samba , Bishnah and Udhampur ). Ofcourse Kishtwar, Ramban and Rajouri low score of BJP reflects that those who talk of Jammu Region have yet to do lot to carry along the people from all districts of Jammu region. NC was very sure to win Bani and Basoli but has lost both seats. Some individuals who have been talking of discrimination with or neglect of Jammu Region had become ambitious after June08 agitation. They showed quite short sightedness .Had they shown some far sightedness the concern for the regional welfare amongst the people of all the districts of Jammu Region would have become stronger and would have added weight to some other candidates in the common cause. Panther Party has demonstrated good results retaining 3 MLAs out of 4 it had. But this party has yet to come out of the Kashmir centric compulsions like its suggesting for return to 1953 status and scrapping of central laws that were extended to J&K after 1953 as its leadership was seen doing in 1990s.. The wisdom and committment of the leaders of this party has yet to be channellised with strength and surely they have capacity to promote oneness amongst the people .(* Daya Sagar is a senior coloumnist on J&K affairs [email protected]) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
