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| Will youth dominate Lok Sabha poll | | |
Brij Bhardwaj
The elections are just around the corner with political parties making all the right noises, but public by and large seems to be indifferent as the stock of politicians is not very high in their estimation. People are more concerned about the economic downturn and loss of jobs. Even though assurances have been forthcoming that India will be able to defeat the international trends and will continue to grow, though at a slower rate, but these assurances are failing to overcome the gloom in markets and public in general.
The UPA Government has an impressive record of growth during its rule which saw larger outlays for social sectors and birth of innovative schemes like rural employment programme. It has also been able to end India 's isolation on the nuclear front by signing a deal with USA which has been endorsed by the international community. The UPA has also been able to sail through, without any major embarrassment, on the issue of corruption, thanks to the high reputation enjoyed by Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh for his integrity and good conduct. It has, however, a lack luster record on the subject of fighting terrorism or dealing with Naxilites.
In such a situation, it could have hoped for smooth sailing at polls, but the unfortunate part is that the Congress party has been unable to enlarge its base or win over any new friends during the five year period which is about to end. Agreed that its main opponent, BJP is also in a poor state of health and does not pose any formidable challenge. Thanks to in-fighting and lack of ability to attract youth who form a large chunk of voters, it will not be able to improve its position as the factors like appeal on basis of religion or emotive issues like building of temple have become non-issues. Its attempt to rake up support on the issue of terrorism made no waves during the recent Assembly elections.
The parties which have grown during this period are regional parties like BSP, Samajwadi Party and others. The old groups like DMK, AIDMK, Telgu Desam, Trinumal Congress and local groups have made fresh gains and are expected to increase their strength in the Lok Sabha in the elections to be held in 2009. One can predict with certainty that one third of the Lok Sabha seats will be cornered by regional parties who will be willing to join any combination at Center depending on the terms offered by them. Even if the Congress and BJP manage to get half the seats in Lok Sabha, they will be able to rule Delhi only if their allies that is regional parties are willing to support them.
This scenario implies that we are heading for another term of coalition politics. The groupings thus formed have surprisingly provided fairly stable Governments and they have lasted their full term. But this is no guarantee that same will hold good for another term. The only possibility of a change is if the unpredictable Indian voter decides to change things and bring in power a new set of people whose appeal is based on their commitment and their appeal to new set of voters who are not very happy with the traditional set of leaders who look jaded and have not changed over the years.
This has started worrying leaders like L. K. Advani, projected as Prime Minister candidate by BJP and NDA who has spent lot of time answering questions on this subject during his interaction with voters on new age tool like the internet.
In India politicians have seldom opted for retirement on their own and as a rule have agreed to do so only if their near and dear ones are in a position to replace them. If one were to look across the country, it will be obvious that the only young faces which have been able to make a break through have the benefit of being named as successors by their families. This is reflected in leadership at Center as well as in the States. The system which decides the future of young leaders on the basis of family tree will take a long time to be changed.
Another feature of Indian politics which makes an entry into it difficult is the high cost of fighting elections which has no relationship with the ridiculous limits imposed by the Election Commission under its rules. The candidates can win only if they have their own means or family wealth to fall back upon. The funding provided by political parties is meager and State funding is not available. As such in Indian democracy all are considered equal, but the entry makes it into a very exclusive club.
With all these limitations, the system has served us well. We have avoided dictatorships by politicians as well as by army and wealth is no guarantee for success except in few cases in elections to upper houses where members are elected not by popular vote but by electoral colleges. So in the next few months, we will go through another poll with hope that the governance will be better as we face tough challenges in days to come.
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