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| Time to give J&K its promised autonomy | | | Govind Talwalkar
PRESIDENT OBAMA has appointed Richard Holbrooke as a special envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan. Mr Holbrooke is an experienced and efficient diplomat. But the task which has been given to him is daunting as he has to deal with two states which, if not failed ones already, are definitely failing.
Several problems haunting Pakistan and Afghanistan are the outcome of American policies, while others are the creation of the leaders of both the states. Moreover, some knowledgeable people in the US are afraid that Mr Holbrooke might be surrounded by official and non-official advisers who, in the apt words of Robert D. Blackwill, former US ambassador to India, are "ayatollahs".
It is now official that the US administration would triple its financial aid to Pakistan and give more military aid.
The Bush administration abandoned the policy of "hyphenisation" and decided to deal with India without juxtaposing it with Pakistan. Mr Obama’s administration is following the same course but it is concerned with Pakistan. It thinks that more military and financial aid would pave the way for peace and stability in the region. But history suggests otherwise.
About a year ago, the Democrats in the Senate were criticising the Bush administration for not holding Pakistan accountable. They also accused Pakistan of using US aid to purchase weapons which were used against India and not Taliban and insurgents. But they have now changed gear.
It would be better for Mr Holbrooke to give some thought to the observations of those who have studied the problem for years. After the deadly attack on Mumbai, the prestigious Brookings Institution held a symposium in which Stephen Cohen and Bruce Riedel discussed the problem in a larger context. Mr Cohen has written a couple of books on Pakistan, and Mr Riedel is an author of books on terrorism and Pakistan.
Mr Riedel drew attention to the appeal issued by Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri to their followers about the danger posed to Islam by "crusader-Zionist- Hindu" alliance and the need to go after economic targets. The Mumbai attacks were a part of this strategy. Mr Riedel pointed out how Lashkar-e-Tayyaba was founded and funded by ISI and Bin Laden and warned against harbouring the thought that the "LeT would be satisfied by the end of India’s occupation of Kashmir or by creating an Islamic state in the Muslim majority parts of South Asia... It seeks the creation of a caliphate to dominate all of South Asia, something akin to the recreation of the Mughal Empire". So even if Kashmir becomes independent, terrorism would not end. Mr Riedel has coined a new phrase when he says there is "Pakistan-isation of Al Qaeda" whose reach stretches to Western Europe.
The disturbing fact, according to Mr Riedel, is that this group has extremely close links and is very active in the Pakistani diaspora — especially in the United Kingdom which is 800,000 strong, and in the Persian Gulf which has almost two million Pakistanis — where it raises much of its funding. A plot to blow up 10 jumbo jets over the Atlantic, en route from UK to US and Canada, was discovered and foiled in August 2006. Those involved in the plot were descendants of Pakistani immigrants in UK who had British passports and could easily enter and exit the US.
Mr Cohen thinks that China would eventually intervene as it would not like Pakistan to be ruled by Islamic extremists who would pose a threat to the Muslim-dominated region in their own country.
Ahmed Rashid and Barnett Rubin wrote a joint article in the winter issue of Foreign Affairs discussing the Kashmir problem. I am one of those who admired Mr Rashid’s book on Taliban which speaks of his scholarship. But this article is partisan and is an advocacy of Pakistan. But it is also true that this side of his was revealed in his latest book in which he says that the Kashmiri people revolted against India in 1947-48. The fact of the matter is that tribals from Pakistan invaded Kashmir and Sheikh Abdullah mobilised people against the invasion.
Both Mr Rashid and Mr Rubin have made several demands of the US, casting the whole burden on the US, while Afghanistan and Pakistan are not expected to do much. They demand that the US satisfy Pakistan with regard to the Durand Line and initiate a dialogue between Pakistan and India along with the four permanent members of the UN Security Council, Nato and Saudi Arabia. This, of course, would be an exercise in futility. Now Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari has asked Washington to stop lecturing and instead give priority to the Kashmir problem, which alone, he says, would bring stability to Pakistan.
Mr Obama had talked of mediation in the dispute between India and Pakistan. But before Mr Holbrooke rushes to mediate, it would be advisable for him to listen to the advice of another retired diplomat, Howard Schaffer. Mr Schaffer served in the US foreign service for 36 years and spent a few years in Delhi holding high positions. He is considered an expert on Kashmir.
Mr Schaffer has, in several of his articles, discussed how the Kashmir problem has become very complex and insoluble. In one of his articles he advised the US administration not to assume that it would be easy to mediate in the Kashmir dispute. He says the US should play the role of a facilitator. Mr Schaffer says that no government in India would dare to accept "independent Kashmir". So the US should persuade Pakistan to accept the Line of Control as the permanent border and let Kashmir enjoy real autonomy.
The state of Kashmir is not confined to the Valley, it includes Jammu and Ladakh. The Valley, therefore, can’t be be allowed to decide the fate of Jammu and Ladakh. And dismemberment of the state would bring in its wake untold misery and violence.
India has, on several occasions, promised autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir — which essentially means that all subjects would be transferred to the state except defence, currency, foreign relations, communications and the Supreme Court. We should not keep postponing this. It is obvious that nothing would happen before the Lok Sabha elections, but once the new government is formed it should act on this and not just set out on the same road which leads nowhere.
The separatists were not triumphant in the recent elections to the state legislature in Jammu and Kashmir. But till the promised autonomy comes into force, they will keep gaining strength
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