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| Regional parties will challenge BJP, Cong | | |
Arun Nehru
Coalition governments are about power sharing, and power is about political longevity, personal gain and creation of financial resources for future battles.
Every political party and leader will talk of moral values and express concern for the poor and the weak, but power is the real concern behind all this. And that’s why when the government in power makes crucial appointments the "loyalty" factor always comes into play.
In this context, it is strange that we adopt a hypocritical attitude on these matters. The present controversy in the Election Commission is an instance. The fact is that the Chief Election Commissioner was appointed by the previous BJP-led NDA government and two Election Commissioners were appointed by the UPA government. Despite the political wars, the EC has done an excellent job in conducting several Assembly elections. Everyone in EC deserves credit for this.
The decision to conduct elections in Jammu and Kashmir (I believe it was a 2-1 decision) was tough but turned out to be a spectacular success. Lok Sabha elections are due in two-three months and irrespective of who heads the commission, the CEC will do its job well.
Battles between the Congress and the BJP and their allies are fought and won in the political arena and usage of any government agency — be it the EC, the Central Bureau of Investigation, the Enforcement Directorate or the income-tax department — is of no help.
Past trends show that misuse of government agencies by "insecure" leaders usually boomerangs and causes defeat in the polls.
We are in the age of 24x7 media coverage and all such excesses will be exposed to the voting public immediately.
India is performing well since 1991 on the economic as well as other fronts — be it arts, science or medicine. But has the system of governance also done well?
There have been brilliant political performances in Gujarat and Delhi where Narendra Modi and Sheila Dikshit have won for the third time. Similarly, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh of the BJP and Naveen Patnaik of the BJD have won for the second time.
Political leaders at state levels who have a good governence record are Nitish Kumar (JD-U) in Bihar and the BJP chief ministers in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. They are potential winners and this will be reflected in the results of the Lok Sabha elections. The question is whether any of the Central parties have gained ground over regional parties in the last five years? My assessment is in the negative and I do not see either the Congress or the BJP gaining in numbers over regional parties.
Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are holding the ground and so is BJP leader L.K. Advani. But the future of Congress will depend on Rahul Gandhi and the BJP’s on Mr Modi. Their ability to score electoral points over the regional leaders will play a major role. The Lok Sabha elections will test the mettle of these future leaders and we must wish them well as their success will mean the success of their party.
In the last six Assembly elections, we have noticed that leaders without ability or charisma have failed in states. Governance is not easy and there is always the "before" and "after" syndrome. A leader can say all the right things "before" the elections. Take the case of the new US President Barack Obama, for instance. He is confronting the disasterous political and economic legacy left by the Bush era and one can see the difficulty he is encountering in his bailout package. The point I am trying to make clear is that governance today is not easy and there is no formula for instant success. The challenges for 2009 and the future can be very different from the immediate past.
We are witnessing changes in the global political structure with the emergence of China, Russia, India and Brazil. We will also see drastic changes in outlook as the free market ideology collapses.
Few, if any, can predict the course of events in the next few months. We will be very lucky to have five per cent GDP growth though this can go down to three-four per cent.
There is a solution to every problem. But we are very closely linked to the global economy and unless the economy in the Western world revives, we will continue to be under constant pressure.
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