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| No govt without Left, large regional forces | | |
Arun Nehru
The elections are drawing near and that is perhaps why the media converted a "vote-on-account" into a "mini-Budget". The next stage would be to isolate issues and their impact on electoral politics. Political forecasting is a little like predicting what’s next in the economic crisis where few, if any, are able to forecast events in the short term and all we can do is to give our opinion based mostly on political feel and experience.
Charts on individual states are relevant but government formation will be on "group formation". I have attempted here to give a rough estimate of what may happen in the future.
I don’t think any government can be formed without the Left and large regional forces like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP), All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Telegu Desam Party (TDP). And if a third front is not possible then, I think, the Left will gravitate towards the Congress (they will not support the Bharatiya Janata Party), while the BSP, the AIDMK, the TDP and the All-India Trinamul Congress (AITC) will drift towards the BJP. The numbers again do not add up to a credible and stable government formation and I think the final answer may lie in the swing states of Tamil Nadu — where the Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam (DMK) or AIADMK will sweep, Jharkhand — where the BJP or Janata Dal-United (JD-U) can sweep, Andhra Pradesh and alliance patterns in Maharashtra (Nationalist Congress Party with BJP/Shiv Sena will demolish the Congress).
There are no easy elections and having planned and been part of many campaigns I can see the complications faced by the decision-makers in a situation where each state reacts to different ground conditions. The classic example is Uttar Pradesh where I think both the BSP and SP are doing their homework very thoroughly. Clearly, caste and community prevails over any other issue in Uttar Pradesh as we see in the case of Kalyan Singh (he can influence four-five seats). I see a very hard fight between the BSP and the SP and whilst the BSP is currently ahead, it would be very foolish to underestimate the SP. The SP-Congress alliance may help in certain areas but there are both positives and negatives in all alliances and, in the current situation, there is no place for "friendly fights". Difficult decisions lie ahead as the SP fights for survival and relevance and the Congress tries to regain lost ground. Neither can afford to constrict its efforts and shrink further in the 80-seat state.
Uttar Pradesh and Bihar together hold 120 seats of which the Congress will be lucky to win 10. But this must change if the party has to revive its fortunes in the future. In Karnataka, talks between the Congress and Janata Dal-Secular are floundering and this is not a surprise. I wonder what the Pattali Makkal Katch (PMK) will do in Tamil Nadu as the AIADMK gains in south Tamil Nadu, and what the position will be in the north? There will be changes here and the Congress is a little more than a spectator at the moment but can anyone predict who the DMK or the AIDMK will align with in the future?
I AM rather disappointed by the actions of the Rajasthan government in settling scores with Vasundhara Raje and Lalit Modi, and the Akali Dal in Punjab acting against Amarinder Singh. All this is nothing but political vendetta. Political battles are not won or lost by vendetta politics nor by claiming superiority on ethical or moral grounds as every political party — be it the Congress, the BJP or the Akali Dal — collects party funds and violates the law. But using government agencies to settle political scores is a big negative.
I think both, Ms Raje and Mr Singh, will gain sympathy and this will be reflected in the Lok Sabha elections. It’s no secret that internal strife and dissent affects Mr Raje in Rajasthan and a similar situation exists with Mr Singh in Punjab. Now the decision is with the high command in each party as there will be disputes on every seat for Lok Sabha elections and sadly all concerned, in pursuit of their personal objectives, will pay little attention to party interests.
Every state will have this problem and no party is immune from this pressure as the CPI(M) experience in Kerala and the TDP in Andhra Pradesh shows. Anti-incumbency trends may top the list of issues which will determine electoral success or failure. Changing sitting candidates is never easy even though it may be necessary. We will witness three weeks of chaos and confusion as the battle for "seats" prevails in every party. A few seats will change hands in this process and in a marginal situation this could well be the difference between victory and defeat. All attention will now be on the elections. The "vote-on-account" is already a thing of the past.
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