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| Pakistan’s Gloomy Scenario and Pervasive Uncertainty | | |
Salman Haidar
The deadly attack on Sri Lanka’s cricket team right in the centre of Lahore drives home the fact that Pakistan is beset with crisis on all fronts. Nowhere seems safe from the terrorists, even the premier city of the Punjab, which was playing host with great ceremony to friendly visitors from abroad. Until now, it was Swat that attracted the greatest apprehensions, where rebel groups in their mountain fastnesses have been able to defy the army, and where fundamentalist mullahs keep raising the ante in their regressive demands. Dealing with them has become more complicated owing to the bitter falling out between the two leading political figures, President Zardari and Mr Nawaz Sharif, formerly coalition partners, presently implacable adversaries.
Nor are we anywhere near the promised investigation into the Mumbai terrorist attacks that have so severely affected Indo-Pak ties. In the heartland itself, the assault on Sri Lanka’s cricketers is only the latest of numerous violent incidents. Insecurity grows and it is difficult to find a silver lining to this gloomy scenario.
Battle in Swat
The situation in Swat continues to be particularly threatening. This used to be a playground, no further from the capital than Agra from Delhi. But it has become a harsh battleground between Taliban and Pakistan’s army. What’s worse, the battle has been fought to a draw, for the army has not been able to have its way. Powerful local religious figures with a Taliban-style credo have motivated the tribesmen to fight to preserve their traditional liberties. Having failed to crush them, Islamabad has felt obliged to make a deal with them that, crucially, permits sharia law to be established rather than the legal codes that apply elsewhere.
Though the locals are relieved, for the agreement brings a promise of peace, many observers in Pakistan see it as a surrender with damaging long-term implications.
Besides, there is no knowing if it will hold for long ~ previous such arrangements have soon broken down. There is also the fear that Swat could become a safe haven for embattled Taliban from both Pakistan and Afghanistan to recoup and refit. Hence there is disquiet about the deal both within and outside Pakistan.
While Pakistan was looking anxiously at the Pushtun belt, it was abruptly enveloped in another crisis caused by a Supreme Court judgment that unseated both Mr Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz from the assemblies to which they had been elected; the latter was obliged to relinquish the post of Chief Minister of Punjab. This is the culmination of an increasingly fractious relationship between the Sharifs and their PML(N) party which is dominant in Punjab and President Zardari’s PPP, which has the largest bloc in the National Assembly.
The court judgment on a charge laid more than a decade ago in the time of Gen. Musharraf is widely regarded as less a judicial finding than a political move. With it, the stage is set for a trial of strength in the parliamentary assemblies and on the streets, with nothing certain except the fear of trouble and disruption. The rivalries between the two leading political personalities of Pakistan had been simmering for some time and the alliance they had forged to install a civilian government after the elections had become more and more frazzled. Now it has come down to a life-and-death political struggle. Only blind partisans of either side can have welcomed this outcome. It does not bode well for the future of civilian rule and has the potential of further unsettling the country at a time when it is already embroiled in many difficulties.
Yet another ongoing crisis has to do with the Mumbai attacks. The nervous posturing about an imminent war that was to be seen in Pakistan immediately after the attacks has receded, though tough talk from New Delhi registers strongly and fears can quickly revive. The strong international reaction has ensured that Pakistan remains on the spot and its actions to bring the perpetrators to book remain under close scrutiny. Among many Pakistanis, there is a shared sense of outrage and genuine sympathy for the victims, yet there is little public demand for the authorities to step up their investigative effort as promised to India. Maybe there is a lingering sense of denial and reluctance to accept responsibility for the attacks. People are overwhelmed by their own problems and see themselves essentially as victims of terrorism, not its perpetrators, hence in need of support and sympathy rather than the opprobrium they receive in such great measure.
The lethal strike on the sporting visitors from Sri Lanka will reinforce their sense of helplessness. It might also lead to a firmer police effort against the perpetrators, rather more than the steps taken after the Mumbai attacks. As of now, this crisis shows no sign of early abatement, any more than the others that assail the country.
The surrounding regional issues add to the difficulties. Pakistan’s crises are taking place as the Taliban are becoming stronger in the frontier region and also in Afghanistan. The USA has chosen to intensify its military activity against this foe, which will affect all the neighbouring countries, one way or the other. Moreover, there is no guarantee of a successful outcome; indeed, some pessimistic observers fear that the situation cannot be retrieved with the relatively small additional commitment that the USA seems inclined to make. Besides, armed US strikes create a strong public reaction that complicates the task of governance by the local authorities in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. There is thus a pervasive uncertainty about the situation and about the efficacy of the policies chosen to meet the situation.
Challenge to India
What is happening across the border represents a big challenge to India The prime focus remains, as it must, on Mumbai and its aftermath. Diplomatic activity has yielded some results and will need to be maintained, for more must be done. But there are further issues that stare us in the eye. The Taliban seem to be consolidating themselves in the areas where they are already established and to be spreading out further. Their cadres are being recruited from different countries and from different parts of Pakistan, including heartland areas hitherto considered immune. As that happens, they will become a bigger menace than ever, to both India and Pakistan. Both countries will have to seek means of meeting the threat, and find ways of supporting each other in the endeavour. It seems a far cry today, when we are still staggering under the impact of Mumbai, and when there is so much lack of trust.
Besides, the Lahore attack has come as a reminder of Pakistan’s incapacity to curb the fanatics that have bred on its territory. Yet India has nothing to gain from a neighbour that cannot keep these dangerous forces in check. In the longer run, the two countries have little option but to seek means of collectively confronting the dangers that threaten the entire region.
The writer is India’s former Foreign Secretary
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