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| Season of political betting | | |
The season of political betting is on. Jammu and Kashmir with only six seats in 543-member Lok Sabha may not inspire a debate on who comes next to rule in New Delhi but the country is debating “who next”. With the three-member Election Commission blowing the whistle for the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the stage is set for one of the most fascinating general elections the nation has witnessed. The bitterly divided commission has done well to put aside its differences and unanimously agree on a five-phase polling which will stretch from April 16 to May 13. The counting of votes and the declaration of results will take place on May 16, so that the 15th Lok Sabha is constituted not later than June 2. The state Assemblies of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Sikkim will also go to polls simultaneously. Chief Election Commissioner N Gopalaswami’s move to get Election Commissioner Navin Chawla removed on specific charges of “partisanship” had created a lot of anxiety among the political parties about the smooth conduct of polls. But, after President Pratibha Patil predictably rejected CEC’s recommendation for Chawla’s removal, the two warring colleagues buried the hatchet at least publicly in national interest. According to the schedule of elections drawn up, Gopalaswami will retire on April 20 after conducting the first phase of polls and Chawla will step in to complete the exercise. This bizarre development is the result of rigidity of rules and a future government would do well to bring an amendment to ensure that horses are not changed in mid course. As always, the holding of elections is one gigantic exercise, which is only getting bigger, with this time, around 40 lakh civilian officials and 21 lakh security personnel being deployed for the conduct of elections. This will perhaps be one of the most open-ended elections since 1996 and there could be many startling results. Though there are two distinct alliances led by the Congress and the BJP, there are enough parties outside them which could alter equations after the results are declared. The Congress has made it clear that it is not interested in going to the polls as leader of the UPA with a common minimum programme, as it would forestall the hunt for new allies. It has already tied up with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and exploring a few other options. Though some of its friends of 2004 elections have deserted it, the BJP has more stable allies. Even Shiv Sena which is exploring the possibility of tying up with NCP, is expected to go along with the BJP ultimately. Some of the loose canons like the SP, AIADMK and TDP, which initially showed enthusiasm to form the Third Front have virtually drifted apart and it will be interesting to watch their moves post-elections.
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