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| Give Omar a chance | | |
AS Dulat
This is a season of change, hope and expectation in Kashmir. It was an outstanding election, particularly when you consider the timing. Many people, including myself, were cynical and felt the government had got it wrong. The post-Amarnath shrine board agitation and the Hurriyat poll boycott did not look good. My fear was we might be going back to 1996. But full marks to the government and the Election Commission for sticking to its convictions. This is possibly the best result Delhi could have hoped for. If the PDP had emerged as the single largest party, notwithstanding Mufti Sahib’s friends in Delhi, it would have been embarrassing for the Congress to ally with it given Mufti’s and Mehbooba’s attitude during the agitation. As it is, Ghulam Nabi Azad was more comfortable with the NC even while in coalition with the PDP. The NC has no doubt suffered because of Farooq Abdullah’s nationalistic stand during the agitation, otherwise it should have got 7-8 seats more (possibly 35). Nonetheless, the PDP remains a force in south Kashmir, where it almost wiped out the NC in Pulwama, Shopian and Anantnag.
The biggest success was the boycott of the separatists’ call for a poll boycott by the people of Kashmir. Last time, in 2002, Syed Ali Shah Geelani had accused Mirwaiz Umar Farooq of honeymooning abroad instead of leading the boycott. This time the Mirwaiz joined Geelani in boycotting the election, and yet the separatists didn’t any impact. Pakistan too showed no interest in the election and there was much less violence and targeting of candidates.
Significantly, the results and the new chief minister have been well received not only by a vast majority of Kashmiris but the separatists as well. The Mirwaiz has hoped that Omar Abdullah will bring change to Kashmir.
The new Assembly is the most representative J&K has had in 20 years, with Farooq, Omar, Mufti, Mehbooba, the Congress and the BJP and some key Independents in it. There are many who participated but did not get elected. Hopefully they will not be forgotten. They should not get killed!
The other positive development is Omar becoming CM. Right through last summer, Kashmiris talked of the return of the NC; but they seemed to prefer Omar to Farooq. Omar became CM because Kashmir wanted him and not, as some people claim, because of Delhi. It was also Farooq’s call: there is no way the son could have become CM if the father did not want him.
Kashmir has never looked better in 20 years. Infiltration, militancy, violence, separatism and Pakistan are all down. It’s almost back to the good old days. Kashmiri militancy is over, and with the Pakistan interior minister’s acknowledgement of the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba’s 26/11 involvement, the Pakistan chapter appears almost closed. We have won the key battles in Kashmir; it is time to take the war to its logical conclusion. There has never been a better opportunity. We have always dithered over what we may have to concede; but today the situation is such we need concede very little. It’s clearly the best time to "settle" Kashmir.
And yet, if we believe that everything is well in Kashmir, it would be a mistake. The alienation is just below the surface, but it’s there. In the last 20 years, almost every household in Kashmir has been affected by the militancy. This is the best time for reconciliation.
Unemployment is an issue in the Valley. So is the rehabilitation of a large number of people involved in one way or another with the "movement". The security forces, wherever not required, could be reduced. Other CBMs suggested by the Hurriyat, including release of political prisoners, could be considered. Those who advocate talking only from a position of strength should note this is possibly the best time. Whether we like him or not, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq will remain a key political figure. Like Omar Abdullah, he too has age on his side. Together, the two would be unbeatable. (This is not as inconceivable as it sounds: remember the double-Farooq accord?)
Kashmir is an emotive political issue, and this can’t be camouflaged by talk of development and subsidies. Omar Abdullah’s political acumen will be tested this summer when the government moves back to Srinagar in May. Working out of Jammu is easier. In summer there will be stories of fresh infiltration, more militants, but the CM’s first real test will be the inevitable Cabinet expansion. The NC-Congress honeymoon might wear thin after the general election. As Farooq Abdullah is bound to shift to national politics eventually, Omar will find himself alone in the deep end of the pool. Delhi must not only keep Omar afloat, but support him to the hilt, more so if we intend to keep the separatists out. The conduct of the recent Rajya Sabha elections was not the best example of coalition dharma.
On security issues, the overall national interest, rather than petty political gain, must be remembered. In the last 60 years, the NC has provided the best buffer against Pakistan. It should be in the national interest to strengthen, not weaken the NC. Accommodation was the key to the 1975 Accord.
We have borne the brunt of terror for 25 years. We have more experience of it than others; and in many ways we have also dealt with it better. That is why we sorted out Punjab, and are where we are in Kashmir today. Much of the credit should go to our intelligence and security apparatus. Remember, there were very few cases of excessive use of force. Nor did we indulge in killings of political activists as Pakistan did. As a Kashmiri separatist once put it: "What’s the worst India can do? Have us locked up? Those across the border will not think twice of having us bumped off."
Our dialogue with the militant leaders, starting early 1996, has paid rich dividends. This was the beginning of the end of Kashmiri militancy. It also gave a fillip to the political process, facilitating the 1996 election. There is no purely military solution to insurgencies; political bargaining goes hand in hand.
Pakistan-bashing, beyond a point, is counterproductive. We need to do business with whoever is in power there. We missed an opportunity in 2006-07. The peace process will hopefully be resumed after the general election. That is the best insurance against cross-border terrorism... The alternative might be Richard Holbrooke’s formula of the US, India and Pakistan working together. As the Kashmiris like to say, maybe the ball is now in Delhi’s court.
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