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| Finally good sense prevails | | |
Finally a certain amount of good sense seems have prevailed among the ruling establishment in Islamabad when it ordered reinstatement of the deposed judges on Monday giving in to the unprecedented pressure mounted by the lawyers and the Opposition Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz).
Inordinate pressure has been brought to bear by the United States on key players in Pakistan — the two principal factions of the ruling PPP led by President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani respectively, the Opposition leader and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and, of course, the Army — to prevent the country plunging into chaos and court destabilisation. In today’s unsettled times such a denouement can only benefit the Islamists waiting in the wings with the blessings of a section of the Pakistani establishment, a euphemism for the Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence, which former President Pervez Musharraf recently described as the country’s "centre of gravity". In a sense he is right. The Army has come to be regarded as a sensitive and significant "stakeholder" in Pakistan in a way that no other institution has. With democracy remaining a bonsai plant in that country, if that, political parties have traditionally relied on the Army and its politics and dirty tricks department, represented by the ISI, to fight their battles. Therefore it was no surprise to see Washington lean on Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani to get the politicians to resolve their differences so that a potential coup — military or political — may be stopped from gathering steam. Leading US representatives also themselves became interlocutors. It is, however, too early to gauge the effect of these developments. The picture is now clear and good sense appears to have prevailed and there are reasonable ground to suppose that behind-the-scenes negotiations have been fruitful. Out of two main demands of Sharif— restoration of his party’s rule in Punjab province and the reinstatement of former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry — one has been met and he would be obliged to play ball, at least for a while. If this scenario had failed to materialise, however, we were likely to be in for prolonged instability that is likely to cause further injury to Pakistan’s gasping political system. The events of Sunday, showing that Sharif broke out of house arrest to rally the Long Marchers in his home base of Lahore, do not appear to be a happy augury. It is not known at this stage if the Islamists have made subterranean moves to fish in troubled waters through any of the elements of the political system or a faction of the Army. Most observers are likely to agree that if the Army cannot help bring about a manageable political solution within a couple of days, it will have no choice but to move in directly. This it has been reluctant to do. Tactically too, that can only be the second-best solution as direct Army rule would bring it face-to-face against the Islamists under American pressure. No matter which way it turns, there won’t be much comfort for India. This time around, a no-holds-barred Army rule is not likely to result in a single-window clearance mechanism in Islamabad which New Delhi hankers after. The reason is that Pakistan’s ground realities have changed to a significant degree and the Islamists have appeared on the horizon as a more cohesive entity than before.
THINK PAD |
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