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Arun Nehru
Political astrology is never easy, and in the current election as we approach the final stages we may well see the votes consolidating around individual parties. I had written earlier that coalition politics has been around for close to two decades now and perhaps will reach its peak in 2009, after which we might start witnessing a shift towards a ‘two-party’ system. I have a distinct feeling that in the closing stages of this election we may find both the Congress and the BJP gaining at the expense of smaller regional parties. The bigger regional parties also may well consolidate their vote base at the expense of smaller parties. But for the implications of the same we will have to wait and watch.
We might also witness the formation of groups of regional parties with enough clout to bargain with the Congress and the BJP. The alliance between the SP, the RJD, and the LJP is a significant step in this direction. Three or four groups like this may form a political structure as big as the Congress or the BJP, but everything will depend on the numbers they are able to muster. As far as the two big national parties are concerned, if the gap between them stretches beyond 30 to 40 seats, then one can have a distinct advantage over the other. But given the present circumstances, it is the Congress that has a better chance of gaining the upper hand. The important thing to remember is that every party has an option for the future and this is what will make the final stages of this election interesting and unpredictable.
Clear trends are emerging in most of the States. But Uttar Pradesh is one State we have to watch out for. The BSP continues to look strong and after the Pilibhit episode the party, along with the Congress, could gain from the votes of the minority communities in some places. The Congress is in a fighting position in Farrukhabad, Badaun, Rampur, Moradabad, Sultanpur, Kanpur, Padrauna, and Pratapgarh. It can easily win 10 to 15 seats if it gains at the expense of the SP. Rae Bareli and Amethi are safe. So is Mr Jitin Prasad in his new constituency of Dharaura. The position in Rampur is interesting where Jaya Prada of the SP was well ahead of the Congress and the BJP candidates, but now it appears that it will be a much tighter race here between the three. The Congress and the BSP both could take away five to six seats from the SP if the minority reaction is in their favour. If this happens then the BJP too would be able to consolidate its seats in the State as a counter-reaction. The bottom line is that the SP is under pressure in Uttar Pradesh.
The Congress in Bihar is fighting for survival as the JD(U)-BJP combine is poised to gain over the RJD-LJP alliance. While the introduction of Pappu Yadav’s mother in the electoral fray and his wife’s shift to the Congress will outrage many a moralist, the reality is that they could actually win their seats and help shore up the Congress’s presence in Bihar.
The overall political mood in the country is also going through a change and this is evident in the attitude of Mr Sharad Pawar who has been blowing hot and cold with respect to his alliance with the Congress. On the other hand, the RJD and the LJP have softened their stance vis-à-vis the Congress and have spoken in favour of Mr Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister. Whereas, the SP appears to be in favour of both Mr Manmohan Singh and Mr Sharad Pawar for the top job! Therefore, it seems that everyone wants to keep Ms Sonia Gandhi happy while being critical of other senior Congress leaders. At the moment the best policy for all political parties, especially their spokesmen, will be to keep quiet and concentrate on winning seats rather than get into verbal duels with their opponents. Plus, with a three or even four way contest in many places things will be tough, and there will be many a surprise winners.
On the economic front, the recently concluded G-20 Summit in London held out some positives. But back home it is disappointing that few politicians are talking about the economy. In the next few months the market is bound to be under a lot strain as the GDP growth rate drops from nine per cent to as low as five to six per cent. The situation in the US and the UK is far from satisfactory. Being a part of the global economy we cannot remain isolated, and therefore, must spend time and effort to understand the global situation to formulate our long-term strategy.
Caste and religion might be the traditional dominant factors in elections in India, but the economy and good governance are fast emerging as the new dominant themes. Going by the last six Assembly elections integrity and good governance will surely be rewarded by the people. Whereas, previous to that in Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka both the BSP and the BJP gained a majority because the voters opted for stability. Instinct tells me that a similar situation may well arise in this election too.
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