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| Time for change has come | | | Dmitry Kosyrev
Whoever wins the Lok Sabha election, India’s foreign policy is bound to become more clearly defined. Its security concerns encourage contacts with the US and China rather than with Russia. Moscow will come third, and only if it is not at loggerheads with Washington, DC, or too friendly with Beijing
The ongoing general election in India, which could see a new Government in New Delhi in a month’s time, is a high-profile event with global implications, regardless of the outcome of the vote.
India has grown into one of the world’s top four or five powers over the past decade, with potential to influence the future of many countries and continents including the US, Europe and others.
India is a new global political phenomenon. That means the whole world is closely following the pre-election mayhem reigning in this country, desperately trying to figure out how the local range of a thousand political parties and unusual candidates, as well as a bunch of typically local problems (of which the outside world has only a vague notion, but which seem to be the cause of no-nonsense political battles) can affect US or Russian policies.
Well, it will. Suffice it to say that the Bill Clinton Administration tried to punish India, together with Pakistan, with sanctions for the 1998 nuclear test. It is hard to imagine Barack Obama’s Government even suggesting sanctions against India today, whatever it does. Not after George W Bush’s Republican Administration put so much effort to even formulate the hard fact that India is a great power which had gate-crashed the nuclear club on its own terms and proved its right to be a special member in it.
That India, with its one billion-plus population, is poised to become the world’s number two economy (coming after China but ahead of the US) by 2050 is old news. The global economic downturn is bringing a lot of unexpected changes, such as accelerating certain economic processes now underway. The traditional sectors of the Indian economy are virtually unaffected by the crisis, which mainly hit the renowned IT industry. The emergence of an Indian car worth $5,000-$6,000 on the market is a revolution, possibly the first one but certainly not the last.
Furthermore, Afghanistan and Pakistan along with the whole problem region are known as one of the US political priorities, and consequently, one of the global priorities. The US will probably sacrifice its Iran policy for the sake of Pakistan. But, no issue that has to do with Pakistan can be resolved without India, and relevant signals have already been sent to New Delhi.
Indian sources confirm that the country will certainly join the US effort, but only after the election, and on its own conditions rather than just as a junior partner. This will certainly open up interesting prospects.
Finally, there is China, which has practically become the world’s second superpower — a fact reconfirmed by the very first moves of Obama’s Administration. India has a long and partly disputed border with China — how will the two powers go about this problem?
India’s unexpected and fast progress from an emerging giant to a global power caused difficulties to several successive Russian Governments. Moscow’s traditional role was to unfailingly supply weapons and generally act as a donor for the Indian economy. The two nations shared an ardent desire to rise to a higher rank among world powers. Now India has reached higher, which makes it more difficult for Moscow to develop relations with India, while catching up with its sweeping pace.
What will India need Russia for? Direct oil and gas exports to India are impossible to arrange, while Moscow has strong rivals on the military equipment and nuclear energy markets. Cultural ties are weaker than those ones ‘Westernised’ India now has with the US and Europe, which have themselves been ‘Indianised’ to a certain extent. Hollywood stars are much more popular in India than their Russian colleagues from Mosfilm Studio.
As a result, India is carefully rearranging the status of its former Russian friend and partner as a friendly but not the most important country. Today, relations with China and the US are much more important for India. Moreover, its key security issue — Pakistan and Afghanistan — encourages contacts with the US and China rather than with Russia. Russia will come third, and only if it is not seriously at loggerheads with America or too friendly with China.
What will change after the election? Whoever wins, India’s policy is bound to become ever more clearly defined. The country’s 714 million voters (730 million according to other estimates) will certainly vote in accordance with their local political preferences. In any case, India now has an unstable two-party system, and the big question is whether or not the current Government (led by the Congress) will be replaced with the BJP. The BJP was in power before it lost the previous elections five years ago.
The BJP was probably slightly more accommodating as far as Russia is concerned; however, Russia’s relations with the current Indian Government were good enough. On the other hand, five years ago was a different time dominated by different people. Now is the time for India to formulate new policies and ideologies.
So far, the Congress has grown into a globalist party with strong ties with the giant Indian diaspora in the US, Europe and elsewhere. The BJP stepped down five years ago with a reputation as a strong nationalist party with global-power ambitions, which in fact had led India to become a nuclear power.
But all that is subject to change. India’s political class is criticising both parties for drifting passively along without proposing anything new. Consequently, the younger generations in both parties will soon develop new policies. True, India’s political class seems quite unanimous on key issues of foreign and economic policies, including on relations with Russia.
However, elections in a country like India may produce unexpected results, such as a strange Prime Minister or an unusual coalition. For example, if the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Ms Mayawati, has her way in the election, she will have a chance to become Prime Minister. The international media is now competing in suggesting more possible scenarios similar to this one. The time for change has come.
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