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| Voters will reward good governance | | | Arun Nehru
Political astrology is not an easy trade. But I feel that in the current election, as we move towards the final stages, we may well see more votes consolidating towards individual parties.
I had written earlier that coalition politics has been around for close to two decades and is slated to reach the peak in 2009. Then we will start witnessing a change towards a "two-party" system.
I think in the closing stages we may find both, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), gaining at the expense of smaller regional groups. The bigger regional parties may also consolidate further at the expense of the smaller parties.
It is possible that we could, in the first stage, see the emergence of a smaller number of parties forming a more stable structure.
We may also witness the formation of groups of regional parties negotiating with the Congress and the BJP, and the alliance of the Samajwadi Party/Rashtriya Janata Dal/Lok Janshakti Party (SP/RJD/LJP) is the first step in that direction.
Three or four groups may form a structure as big as the Congress or the BJP but everything will depend on the numbers and this will determine the agenda of all three groups.
The Congress or the BJP can score over each other if the gap stretches beyond 30-40 seats, though the former has a better chance in the current circumstances.
The important thing to remember is that every party has an option for the future and this makes the final stage interesting but unpredictable.
Trends have settled in most of the states but what will happen in Uttar Pradesh? I see small changes which may further develop in the coming weeks.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) continues to look strong and after the Pilibhit episode it may gain minority votes. The Congress may also gain in select seats.
In fact, the Congress is in a fighting position in Farrukhabad, Badaun, Rampur, Moradabad, Sultanpur, Kanpur, Padrauna and Pratapgarh. It looks set to get 10 to 15 seats in Uttar Pradesh this time. Raebareli and Amethi are safe and SP candidate Jitin Prasad should also win.
Rampur is interesting where Jaya Prada of the SP was ahead of the Congress and the BJP but now it is a photo finish between the Congress, the BJP and the SP. The Congress/BSP can both swing away another 5-6 seats from the SP and BJP if the minority reaction is favourable. In turn, the BJP may also consoldidate its seats. The SP is under pressure in Uttar Pradesh.
In Bihar, the Congress will be fighting for survival as the Janata Dal-United and the BJP combination gains over the RJD/LJP. While the induction of Pappu Yadav and his wife will outrage many a moralists, the ground reality is that they can win few seats. The political mood is also going through a change and this is evident in the attitude of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar who is blowing hot and cold. The RJD and the LJP have softened their approach and are now speaking in favour of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and so is the SP.
It seems everyone concerned wants to keep Congress president Sonia Gandhi happy whilst being critical of other senior Congress leaders.
The best policy for all political parties and their leaders (spokespersons in particular) is to keep quiet and concentrate on winning seats and avoid abusive and offensive language towards their opponents.
Elections are never easy and in over 200 seats where there is a three or four way contest between major political groups there will always be the possibility of surprise winners and losers.
The economic situation and the Group of 20 (G-20) summit give room for some optimism and I think in any political discussion we must include economic issues. Caste and religion can be dominant factors but economy and good governance are equally important. If we look at the last six Assembly elections then we see that integrity and good governance have been rewarded. Instinct tells me that a similar situation may well develop in 2009.
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