news details |
|
|
| POLL ANALYSIS | | Figures support NC but South Kashmir facts on PDP’s side | | Omar’s Amarnath Nagar jihadi may become a casualty of NC-Cong discord
Ahmed Ali Fayyaz
ANANTNAG, Apr 28: Scion of the Beg family, Dr Mehboob Beg, is not important merely because of being the son of Sheikh Abdullah’s unparalleled confidante Mirza Afzal Beg---key character of Beg-Parthasarthi talks that churned the Indira-Abdullah Accord in 1975. In the middle of last year, he had fired a salvo on then PDP-Congress regime with his allegation that the actual purpose of allotment of 800 Kanal of land at Baltal in favour of Shri Amarnath Shrine Board was building up a Hindu concentration to be known as ‘Amarnath Nagar’. Dr Beg grabbed too much of space that in half of his “Devil’s Advocate” with Karan Thapar, a profusely embarrassed Omar Abdullah had to make desperate explanations that his party colleague was the victim of a misinterpretation.
When the coalition cheerleaders here put a massive floral garland on Rahul Gandhi, Omar Abdullah and Saif-ud-din Soz, poor Mr Beg offered his neck and made desperate attempts to grab an inch of space with his masters huddled together. But, he had to be content with just his space in the photo-frames as the bloody garland was too tight to accommodate the fourth star. Both, Congress as well as the NC, campaign managers read a lot of symbolism in this episode that soothes none but the coalition’s rival, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
With the change of regime, too much has changed in the Jammu & Kashmir political spectrum in the last six months. NC, Congress, PDP and CPI (M) fought each other without any seat sharing agreement in the Assembly elections of 2008. Today, the situation is that of all-versus-PDP. And, obviously, the question in everybody mind is: Would the PDP retain South Kashmir as its impregnable stronghold?
NC is, indeed, stronger when compared to the situation in November 2008. With the return of power after six years to the NC, many things have begun to follow. Exactly a dozen of its angry and estranged leaders had contested the Assembly elections as rebel candidates in South Kashmir. Of them, Abdul Majid Mir of Shangus (2,645 votes) and Abdul Rahim Rather of Kokernag (2,714 votes) have lately joined the PDP but four others have returned to the NC. They include Ghulam Qadir Tak of Bijbehara (4,612 votes), Irfan Ahmed Bhat alias Kollar of Pahalgam (3,861 votes), former MLA Sheikh Mohammad Rafi of Shopian (4,001 votes) and former MLA Dr Ghulam Nabi Bhat of Tral (1,229 votes). One Mohammad Rafeeq Khan, who had got 7,778 votes in Devsar, has also made his first entry in the NC.
Former Ministers Sonaullah Dar (4,003 votes) and Bashir Ahmed Nengroo (2,318 votes) of Pulwama, former MLA Ghulam Mohiuddin Mir (9,230 votes) and another rebel, namely Ghulam Nabi Bhat ( 2,871 votes) of Pampore are, however, still out of Dr Farooq Abdullah’s party.
That the administrative machinery is in NC’s hand today and Jamaat-e-Islami, by all available indications, is not going to support Mufti’s candidate in the current elections, are enumerated as other advantages of NC and disadvantages of the PDP.
In the South Kashmir districts of Anantnag, Pulwama, Shopian and Kulgam, PDP had improved its 2002 tally and bagged 12 seats. From 2 seats in 2002, NC has fallen to the one-odd victory in Sakeena Itoo’s Noorabad. While CPI (M) State Secretary had retained his home segment of Kulgam for the third consecutive term, Congress had also retained two-odd seats of Kokernag (Pirzada Mohammad Sayeed) and Dooru (Ghulam Ahmed Mir). In 2002, PDP had taken the lion’s share of 10 seats and two each had gone to NC, Congress and CPI (M).
In all Parliamentary elections, NC has suffered most of reverses in South Kashmir alone where Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and his Congress party had succeeded in creating a formidable base. In 1977, Mohammad Shafi Qureshi of Congress was returned with 79,742 votes. In 1980, NC’s winning candidate Ghulam Rasool Kochak faced a tough fight. In 1984, NC’s much revered Madar-e-Meharban Begum Akbar Jehan got a whopping 2,40,973 votes but Congress-NC(K) candidate Pir Hissamuddin was the runner-up with 1,58,963 votes. In 1998, Mufti won his first Lok Sabha elections from J&K in Anantnag when he contested as Congress candidate and enjoyed support from Jamaat-e-Islami and some militant outfits. He got 1,20,444 votes votes against that of the NC candidate Mohammad Yusuf Taing’s 68,444.
Even as NC’s Ali Mohammad Naik got the seat back with a total of 38,745 votes in 1999, PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti trounced NC’s Dr Mehboob Beg in 2004. Mehbooba got 74,436 votes and Mehboob only 35,498. In today’s election, Dr Beg has yet again locked horns with PDP’s Pir Mohammad Hussain.
If taken as bench mark, PDP (78,010 votes) had bagged 35.34% of the total votes polled (2,20,741) and got 10 seats in 2002 Assembly elections. It was followed by NC (51,967) with 23.54% and 2 seats, Congress (40,293 votes) with 18.25% and 2 seats, and CPM (23,225) with 10.52% of the votes polled and 2 seats. In other words, PDP got 35.34% vote and NC, Congress and CPM 52.31%. Clearly, the sharp divide between PDP’s rivals was its real advantage.
In 2008, PDP (2,11336 votes) got 31.81% of the total votes polled (6,64,280) and got 12 segments. It was again followed by NC (1,27,781 votes) which got 19.23% but only one segment. Yet again, Congress (87,039 votes) ranked at number three with 13.10% and two segments. CPM (30,736) stood 4th with 4.63% and one-odd segment. This time PDP’s percentage dipped to 31.81% but all three of its major rivals put together got just 36.96% of the total votes polled.
In other words, PDP and its fresh entrants (Abdul Majid Mir and Abdul Rahim Rather) got 2,16,695 votes in the Assembly elections of 2008 while as NC, five of its fresh entrants, Congress and CPM got 2,67,037 votes.
Left to these calculations, NC’s Dr Beg should comfortably romp home as he is enjoying the support of not only the fresh entrants but also that of the coalition partner Congress. To his added advantage, Jamaat-e-Islami, which has a formidable votebank in Kulgam, Homeshalibugh and Wachi segments, has shown no indications of participation in the current elections. Mohammad Yusuf Tarigami is not on the forefront of campaigning in favour of the coalition candidate due to the chasm between his CPI (M) and Congress at the national level but observers insist that it was only a “tactical silence”.
“Since Tarigami Sahib is not himself a candidate, we are not going to poll 31,000 votes in South Kashmir. But, I have no doubts that around 20,000 of our followers would definitely cast their vote in favour of Dr Beg---perhaps more due to their hatred for PDP and Jamaat”, said a senior CPI (M) leader. Tarigami, however, refused to make comment.
However, most of the other factors are clearly advantage PDP. Observers believe that in close aftermath of the Assembly elections, in which Congress, NC and CPM spewed venom against one another, it was not realistic to expect the top level alliance to percolate down to the grass-root. Even as nearly 50% of the Congress and CPM voters are widely expected to vote for the NC candidate in 14 segments, there have been eruptions of bitter discord between the supporters of NC and Congress leaders in Noorabad and Dooru segments in the last one week.
In Noorabad, NC’s Sakeena Itoo and Congress party’s Abdul Majeed Paddar are more pitted against each other than the official rival PDP. Sakeena’s voters have apparently shed their 2008 enthusiasm as she has not been inducted into the Cabinet even after grounding the PDP stalwart and Cabinet Minister Abdul Aziz Zargar. In Dooru too, followers of NC’s Mohammad Akbar Ganai and Congress MLA Ghulam Ahmed Mir have clashed even at Omar Abdullah’s and Rahul Gandhi’s rallies.
And the last, but not the least, of NC’s disadvantage is that inspite of the change of regime, the new dispensation appears to be just an extension of the PDP-Congress regime. Independent reports say that officials loyal to PDP and many of them known detractors of the NC are ruling the roost even today in South Kashmir. Omar Abdullah’s government has not been able to bring about any change in the last four months that could have signified regard for the masses’ new mandate.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
