news details |
|
|
| PDP losing due to Geelani-Mirwaiz in South, Sajjad in North | | NC poised to sweep all 3 seats in Kashmir | |
Ahmed Ali Fayyaz
SRINAGAR, May 14: Perhaps the most interesting feature of the Assembly elections of November-December 2008 was that the Abdullahs’ National Conference (NC) and the Muftis’ Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had achieved almost 50:50 not only in terms of the segments won but also in terms of the votes polled by each in Kashmir valley, that has been the primary constituency for both.
Among the 46 segments, NC had taken 20 and PDP 19. While Congress party had bagged 3 seats and CPI(M) one, remaining 3 had gone to independent candidates, namely Hakeem Mohammad Yasin (Khansahib), Ghulam Hassan Mir (Gulmarg) and Engineer Sheikh Abdul Rashid (Langet). Interestingly, NC had polled 4,66,210 votes and and PDP 4,66,971. It was the superiority of one seat in favour of NC but nominal margin of just 700 votes in favour of PDP.
In comparison to the Assembly elections of October 2002, NC came down to 27.51% from its share of 35.65% in the votes polled six years ago. On the other hand PDP went up from 25.23% in 2002 to 27.55% in 2008. Congress too suffered a deficit of nearly 3% as it came crashing from 14.43% in 2002 to 10.67% in 2008. CPI(M) suffered a loss of one percent. Thus, it is clear that in 2008, the secular NC’s decisive advantage over PDP was 10 seats it got in the Hindu-dominated Jammu and the Buddhist-dominated Ladakh region. For the first time, PDP was off the mark in Jammu but the two-odd seats it got in the Muslim-dominated Poonch-Rajouri belt, were fairly short of making a big difference.
Finally the last difference: Both the major national parties, Congress and BJP, were on Mufti’s side in 2002. Even the arch ideological rival, CPI(M) did not lag behind. Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami had played a key role in forging an alliance of over a dozen independent MLAs to provide the last required support to PDP. Prof Bhim Singh’s National Panthers Party (NPP), which had for the first time bagged four seats in Jammu, was also a constituent of the PDP-led ruling alliance. It was a situation of all-versus-NC.
In 2008, things moved fast against the PDP. Even as Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s party had succeeded to partly salvage itself from the Amarnath land allotment quagmire, that stopped short of creating a 1990-type situation in Kashmir, it had a bad luck in store. In the aftermath of November 26th terrorist strikes in Mumbai, all the Congress-friendly parties, perceived to be soft to militancy, had overnight become politically untouchable in New Delhi. PDP was obviously the first sufferer---in the middle of Assembly elections in J&K. Pranab Mukherjee’s one-liner, suggesting possibility of another Congress-PDP coalition in J&K, resulted in a rout for Sonia Gandhi’s party in Jammu-Samba belt. Thus, in sharp contrast to 2002, it was a situation of all-versus-PDP.
Kashmir’s separatist voter has been treating PDP as a “lesser evil” when given a choice among all mainstream political parties. His participation in the Assembly elections in large numbers was indisputably PDP’s advantage in 2008. Around 80,000 of such voters---including over 40,000 of the Jamaat-e-Islami followers--- are believed to have favoured PDP’s candidates in South Kashmir alone.
It was perhaps for the first time that Mufti Sayeed’s worst fears with regard to boycott came true in the Lok Sabha elections of 2009. Almost all of these 80,000 people, plus about 20% of the pseudo-separatist PDP cadre, remained indoors on the day of polling in South Kashmir. Even as NC had faced a degree of damage due to estrangement of its 12 rebels in South Kashmir in 2008, it succeeded in winning back some of them and also roped in one independent, who had got nearly 8,000 votes in Devsar segment. In addition to that, Dr Abdullah’s party is believed to have got 80% of the vote polled by its direct ally, Congress, and indirect ally, CPM.
As against PDP’s 2,11,330 and NC’s 1,27,781, Congress had got 90,000 votes and CPM 30,000 in the 16 segments in South Kashmir, in 2008. By these indications, NC is likely to win Anantnag-Pulwama with a minimum margin of 10,000 to 20,000 votes. Having won only one segment against PDP’s 12 in 2008, and having failed to become even the first runner up in seven segments, NC is believed to establish lead over PDP in at least eight segments this time.
Paradoxically, in North Kashmir, PDP is emerging as a sufferer because of the separatist-turned-mainstream leader, Sajjad Gani Lone, and not due to his bete noire Syed Ali Shah Geelani’s and Mirwaiz Umar Farooq’s call for boycott to the polling. Sajjad, who is believed to be neck-and-neck with NC’s Sharief-ud-din Shariq in the 5-segment Kupwara district, is believed to have taken over 60% of the PDP vote. He could have been a winner, had he enjoyed same support in the 7-segment Baramulla district and the 3-segment Bandipore district. His influence is apparently restricted to just Rafiabad in Baramulla and parts of a couple of other segments in Baramulla-Bandipore belt.
This vertical divide of the anti-NC vote, coupled with considerable impact of boycott in Baramulla segment, is considered to be an advantage NC situation. Getting less than 20% of the votes polled in Kupwara district, PDP is, however, expecting major support in Kreeri, Pattan and Bandipore segments.
PDP’s as well as PC’s one-odd soothing news has come from Uri where supporters of the Congress leader and Minister, Taj Mohiuddin, have not turned up to support their much-hated Mohammad Shafi Uri’s NC. As compared to 65% to 80% turnout in all elections, the militancy-free Uri has recorded a remarkably poor turnout of 37% in the polling on Wednesday. Even Chief Minister Omar Abdullah was subjected to embarrassment when not more than 1200 people came out to attend his rally earlier this week.
In North Kashmir, NC is still believed to have taken a section of the Congress vote. Since December 2008, it has also won the support of former MLA Usman Majeed, who lost but got over 12,000 votes in Bandipore and J&K DP(N) chief, Ghulam Hassan Mir, was won from Gulmarg while getting over 18,000 votes. Huge turnout in Chowdhary Mohammad Ramzan’s Handwara segment and Mohammad Akbar Lone’s Sonawari is finally believed to have decisively turned the tables in NC’s favour, in Baramulla-Kupwara constituency. Independent analysts believe that NC could take this seat with the highest margin of over 40,000 votes.
The Central Kashmir constituency of Srinagar-Budgam has been an invincible fortress of the Abdullahs. Whether in power or in opposition, NC has always bagged this seat of 15 segments with sizable margins since 1977, with the exception of 1996 when it boycotted the elections. After Omar Abdullah’s hat-trick in 1998, 1999 and 2004, none other than the party’s patriarch, Farooq Abdullah, has jumped into the fray this time.
PDP had got three segments here in 2002 Assembly elections against NC’s eight, while defeating then NC’s Chief Ministerial candidate, Omar, in Ganderbal. Later, it also succeeded in making the first dent in the NC’s bastion when PDP’s Tariq Hameed Qarra defeated NC’s Irfan Shah in the by-elections in Batmaloo. However, in the Assembly elections of 2008, NC not only swept polls in all the eight segments in Srinagar but also reduced PDP’s tally to just two segments of Beerwah and Chadoura. Observers are unanimous that PDP’s Shia leader, Maulvi Iftikhar Hussain Ansari, would have the winning prospects only in a turnout of 20% or below.
In Central Kashmir too, NC this time has the advantage of support from Ghulam Qadir Pardesi, who had almost defeated Dr Abdullah in Sonwar, and the PDF chief Hakeem Yasin who had got 22,600 votes in the Assembly elections of 2008 in Khansahib. PDP is still expecting good number of votes from Ganderbal, Sonwar, Budgam, Beerwah, Chadoura, Khansahib and Chrar-e-Sharief. Modest turnout of 24% is a good indication for PDP but it may have to learn that the total Shia electorate in Srinagar-Budgam-Ganderbal is less than 1,50,000 and its turnout has not been that high. Besides, inspite of palpable disappointment among his supporters, NC’s Budgam MLA Aga Ruhullah is expected to cut away at least 35% percent of the Shia vote polled, for his party president. No wonder, if NC retains this seat with a margin of over 30,000 votes.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
