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| They are rehearsing oath, but who are lucky 15? | | Decks cleared for expansion of Omar’s cabinet, oath tomorrow | |
ZAFAR CHOUDHARY
Jammu, July 9: The invitation cards are reported to have been printed late this evening for the long awaited ceremony. Since middle of January this year, it is almost 150th time that ‘rumours’ of expansion of Omar Abdullah cabinet are again in the town and ‘possibilities’ are more clear on the horizon than ever. The most recent speculations are fueled by Chief Minister’s meeting with the Governor in Srinagar Thursday. That the meeting took place on the day Chief Minister returned from New Delhi after meeting top Congress leaders, the speculations this time carry more weight. If all goes well, the expansion of six-month old National Conference-Congress coalition ministry is expected on Saturday at 4 PM at the Sher-e-Kashmir International Convention Center, sources in the government and at the Raj Bhawan have quite reluctantly confirmed this. Nothing, however, can be ruled out or ruled in, given the experience of past six months when even the top leaders like PCC chief Prof Saif-ud-Din Soz once went on record saying “expansion will take place in next two days”, but weeks later nothing of the kind happened.
If this keenly awaited event (expansion) finally happens, over down dozen constituencies represented by the ruling parties may see their elected legislators back in the areas after several months. The ruling party MLAs have spent most of their past months sweating out in Jammu, Srinagar and New Delhi to bag a seat in the ministry.
Now who becomes the Minister is the big question of the hour. In last six months, the aspirants have put in their ‘homework’ so well that it is difficult for anyone to make choices. There are only 15 vacancies left but the aspirants, in any case, are more than 30. The coalition partners, NC and Congress, have their combined strength of 45 members. They have outside support of five members and two of them –Hakeem Mohammad Yaseen and Ghulam Hassan Mir –are very strong contenders of the ministerial berth.
This is how the aspirants put their claim to the cushioned seat in the plush chambers of civil secretariat and here are the circumstance-briefs which make or block their way.
RAMAN BHALLA
The lone surviving urban face of Congress, he saved party from humiliation by retaining his Gandhi Nagar seat in 2008 elections. In spate of Amarnath land row, Raman’s victory over BJP talked volumes about his roots in constituency. He is one Congress MLA who has spent less time in New Delhi and more in his constituency since January this year. He became a victim of over confidence in 2002 and it vulnerable to same syndrome this time too. His chances of becoming Cabinet Ministers are almost certain if a senior Congress in Delhi spares the way.
CHOUDHARY MOHAMMAD ASLAM
A veteran of all times, when he lost 1996 assembly elections, the Congress high command rewarded him with crown of PCC chief. And when he lost in 2002, he was rewarded with Rajya Sabha seat, a little later. Interestingly, when won 2008 assembly elections and emerged as senior most leader among the Congress legislators (of course after Ghulam Nabi Azad) the party did not care about him. By way of merit and seniority he was expected to be offered Deputy Chief Minister’s post but was left wanting for a Ministry. When all Congress leaders shuttled between Srinagar and New Delhi for security ministry, Aslam all the days relaxed at Srinagar circuit house where is expecting the ‘anytime’ phone call for oath. What is in store him, even he is not able to guess.
MOHAMMAD SHARIEF NIAZ
When Azad took over as Chief Minister in November 2005, Niaz, a Minister until then, did not find place in the next cabinet. There was a need to send out a message that Azad is against nepotism. Niaz is Azad’s kin. Few months later he walked an extra-mile to vacate his assembly seat for Azad who was required to be come member of either of the Houses within six months. In 2008, Azad sought re-election from Bhaderwah while Niaz looked on, though he was made an MLC but compensation was not enough. Now has got his Bhaderwah seat back after Azad’s return home (Delhi). Sources say Azad has not worked much for Niaz’s cause but the relationship is still reported to have mattered.
ABDUL MAJID WANI
A staunch loyalist of Azad, was an independent legislator in 2002 and later switched sides with Congress. Remained a Minister of State in Mufti regime but Azad did not repeat him for the same reason as was in the case of Niaz. Has spent a great deal of time in Delhi and expectations are very high.
GHULAM MOHAMMAD SAROORI
His main contention is that why always Niaz and Majid Wani. In his seamless efforts to convince Delhi Darbar, he has made a strong point that Niaz and Wani have already had the chance to represent Chenab Valley and now is his turn.
AJAZ AHMED KHAN
One of the youngest and most urbane faces in Congress, Ajaz was the only Minister in previous coalition who got along well with both Chief Ministers. The amount of trust he earned reached highest point in late 2006 when Azad, one after the other, charged him with portfolios of around 13 departments. He has his Delhi connections straight but never at cost of constituency. The only worry is being a Gujjar. From Congress quota, Taj is already there and Aslam is senior contender –both are Gujjars.
MANOHAR LAL SHARMA
Towards the gateway of Jammu and Kashmir, Manohar is the only available sign of Congress. Party lost all seats in Kathua but Manohar’s Billawar. A second time legislator, he is one sure way to become a Minister of State.
SHABIR AHMED KHAN
Adding with Taj, if Aslam and Ajaz –all Gujjars –are two new Ministers from the Congress quota, Shabir Ahmed Khan’s entry to cabinet is as clear as crystal. The districts of Rajouri, Poonch and north Kashmir are bitterly divided between Gujjars and Paharis and Congress can’t afford to go overboard with Gujjars. Shabir, a Pahari, will have to be there as a balancing act.
CHOUDHARY MOHAMMAD RAMZAN
The Choudhary of Handwara is descent and well behaved but can not be always taken at face value. He is stubborn too. A veteran of many elections since 1977, he lost 2002 elections but did not go out of reckoning. While is yet to nurse the hurt burns of being left out in first oath ceremony, any missing this time can cost the party dearly. He has made his feelings known at many occasions.
MIR SAIFULLAH
This handsome gentleman has been battling and winning against the Lones in Kupwara since 1996. Winning election third time in row and being loyal to both axis of party without letting one to know about the other favour Saifullah’a entry in cabinet but there are two spoilers –Choudhary Ramzan and Kafilur-Rehman from same district.
KAFILUR REHMAN
The rural and rugged third time winner of National Conference is down to earth but his performance as Vice Chairman of the Pahari Board was little less impressive then desired. Over last six months, Kafil has several times been seen moving around with Choudhary and Saifullah as all three had the same grievance –not taken in first oath ceremony. His and Saifullah’s vulnerability also lies in Choudhary but Kafil scores better being a Pahari.
MUBARAK GUL
A legislator since 1983 and loyal to the Abdullah clan to the core his heart but never a Minister –imagine how well Mubarak Gul has chances of becoming Cabinet Minister. It is also a question of giving representation to Srinagar City. But there are two potential spoilers of his chances in Sheikh Mustafa Kamal and Nasir Sogami. Omar will have to show what matters most –organisation or family and friendship.
SHEIKH MUSTAFA KAMAL
Lost 2002 assembly elections, was fielded in 2006 by-elections from another constituency and returned to assembly. Again lost 2008 assembly elections, the elder brother and nephew saw into it that chance is not missed. Got ticket for by-election this year and won. Looking at the dynastic politics, Kamal’s exclusion from Cabinet can only script a new history. But chances of such a history are least.
QAMAR ALI AKHOON
In the new Leh versus Kargil and Buddhist versus Muslim axis created by National Conference itself, Qamar Ali Akhoon of Kargil has his way to the cabinet to do a balancing act with Nawang Rigzin Jora of Congress who represents Leh.
SAKINA ITTOO
After all there has to be a woman in the Cabinet. Among the elected legislators NC has two choices and Congress none. Shameema Firdaus is from Srinagar district and all Ministers can’t be from there. Sakina is from South Kashmir where she is the only sign of NC. A Minister of State with independent charge for full six years since 1996, this time she is poised to sit across Cabinet table.
NASIR SOGAMI
When Omar appointed Devinder Rana as his political advisor with status and protocol of Minister of State and powers running far and high beyond that, an obvious surprise was –what about Nasir Sogami, MLA Amirakadal. Both are Omar’s friends but Nasir is not a businessman.
AGHA ROOHULLAH
He was the youngest MLA in 2002 and was re-elected from Chadoora in 2002 at the age of 31. Roohullah belongs to a clan of Shias, powerful in politics and clergy. His certainty for becoming a Minister of State is almost next to none.
ABDUL GHANI MALIK
Won 1996 assembly election in Janta Dal ticket and later joined National Conference as Farooq Abdullah hinted at making him a Minister even as National Conference than had two-third majority in assembly. Has won two more elections since then and has roamed about frequently around the house of Abdullahs.
SAJJAD KICHLOO
Son of National Conference veteran late Bashir Ahmed Kichloo, he is the only NC sign in Chenab Valley region and therefore carries bright prospects of becoming Minister.
HAKEEM MOHAMMAD YASEEN/GHULAM HASSAN MIR
They are masters of their own destiny, chiefs of their own one-legislator political parties and have strong New Delhi connections. Congress wants them to be on its right side for staying connected in the Valley but there is a price –join party first then become Ministers. Both have so far resisted this condition.
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