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| China’s Intentions –I | | Is dragon drawing closer? | | ABID SHAH | 9/7/2009 11:52:24 PM |
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An Early Times Special
New Delhi, Sept 7: Close on the heels of reports about Chinese incursions in Ladakh, officials at home are confounded by chance discovery of a China-bound cargo plane carrying arms and ammunition at Kolkata International Airport on Sunday evening.
Even as officials are tight-lipped about declaration by the pilot of the United Arab Emirates aircraft about the nature of its cargo, military strategists here point to the China’s long reach in military and strategic matters and close interaction with far off countries extending through almost every part of Asia.
Talking about the Kolkata inicident, a senior fellow of Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), Professor P Stobdan, told Early Times here on Monday that though it may take some more time to know the reason for movement of arms and ammunition through a UAE aircraft, the truth is that Chinese military, political and diplomatic establishments are too proactive to be adequately tracked upon.
According to him, like the recent Ladakh incursions by Chinese troops and choppers, the discovery of the sensitive cargo or contents of the UAE aircraft as the pilot landed at Kolkata airport for refueling come at a time when talks about solving border disputes are supposed to be on and India’s military delegation is on a goodwill visit to China. These are typical signs of Chinese assertiveness where a neighbour like India finds it difficult to make up its mind about the crisis posed by such incidents in times that are otherwise supposed to be meant for exchange of goodwill and observing courtesies.
Officials on the Indian side took time to form an opinion because of the multi-faceted decision making and poor coordination among them unlike their Chinese counterparts who have invariably been believing in advance planning that enables them to read the mind of the opposite side, said the IDSA scholar.
As one would remember this has been a consistent feature of Chinese policy vis-à-vis India as Beijing in the past has opted for detonating its atomic exercises amid the State visit of Indian dignitaries. This had happened when Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee visited China as Foreign Minister under Mr Morarji Desai’s regime.
Thus, an incursion here or there is hardly needed to prove Chinese chutzpah. And of late China has been opposing India at international fora without much diplomatic cost. Whether it is Asian Development Bank (ADB) assistance for Arunachal Pradesh over which Beijing lays its claim howsoever unjustifiably or Indo-US nuclear deal, China has been putting its note of dissent before trying to get back to friendly terms with India so that New Delhi may have something to console about and ignore come-and-gone Chinese games. More so when they mercifully pass off without inflicting much, rather any, damage.
But this history did change when it was found that in July this year Chinese troops did walk deep inside Ladakh across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) though it was disclosed as late as yesterday.
Defence analysts say that there have been violation of Indian airspace in Ladakh by Chinese helicopters and aircraft in the past too but troops walking in and painting rocks in the barren arena red is unprecedented besides inscribing China in Cantonese.
Asked about the Chinese intentions, they do not rule out the possibility of trying to herd in men like sheep from the other side after such a reconnaissance. And as to about what could have provoked the Chinese troops to do this, the analysts say that Chinese military might now is in a mode of intense war exercise.
This is code-names “Stride 2009” whereby China intends to flex its military muscles. Moreover, of late India has reactivated two abandoned air runway strips in Ladakh near the LAC after decades of their being abandoned. Chinese might have taken this as a provocation.
Those watching China closely also do not rule out a China-Pak nexus in recent moves by Beijing. As India is building pressure on Pakistan for punishing the suspects behind the 26/11 Mumbai attack, China might well be laying other subtle traps that overload India with more stupendous diplomatic and strategic tasks and thereby deflect New Delhi’s attention from Islamabad’s dithering from taking action against forces inimical to India.
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