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| Three fronts are taking shape in UP | | A fractured mandate likely at the Assembly polls | | B L KAK
NEW DELHI: The Congress party led by Sonia Gandhi is keen to revive itself in India's key State of Uttar Pradesh (UP) it ruled until 1990. The job is not easy at all. And the question of the Congress returning to power in the State just does not arise.
UP seems to be heading for a fractured mandate at the coming Assembly polls. Indications are by no means uncertain that at least seven serious contenders would contest each of the 403 seats of India's most populous State. Three of the four major political forces-- the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress party-- have already announced their decision to contest the polls on their own.
The beleaguered ruling Samajwadi Party (SP), however, has compulsions to carry along some of its allies to prevent their joining one of the three fronts taking shape in UP. Interestingly, both the BSP and the BJP have decided to go it alone, saying their experience is that alliances harmed their prospect of coming to power. The Congress party says it wants to use the polls to expand its base and revive itself in the State it ruled until 1990.
The BSP, BJP and the SP have since been ruling the State through post-poll alliances and by engineering defections from the opposition ranks after repeated elections threw up hung Assemblies. The Congress party had earlier indicated that it would be open to enter into a coalition arrangement with like-minded parties. However, it has changed its stance after realising that since it has no chance of coming to power, the best bet for it would be to use the polls to strengthen its base with an eye on performing better in the next parliamentary elections.
The Congress U-turn has come as a jolt to the fledgling Jan Dal of former Prime Minister,V.P. Singh. The anti-alliance stand of the Congress party that rules at the Centre and its arch-rival in national politics, BJP, have left their existing allies fuming, forcing them to float their own fronts. V.P. Singh's Jan Dal was convinced about forging an alliance with the Congress party. Now it has become a platform for parties backing the Congress-led Central government to come together. The Marxists and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) of Union Minister, Ram Vilas Paswan, have already sided with it.
The Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU), a powerful body of western Uttar Pradesh farmers, has also pledged their support to the Jan Dal. The Janata Dal (United), a key ally of the BJP, has already floated a front in the company of the caste-based regional outfit Apna Dal. The Bharatiya Janshakti Party of rebel BJP leader, Uma Bharati, may join them after her party completed the formalities of getting itself registered.
However, the most interesting development is the emergence of the seventh group, the United Democratic Front (UDF) that is giving sleepless nights to the Samajwadi Party and the BSP. UDF, a brainchild of Syed Ahmad Bukhari, Shahi Imam of Delhi's Jama Masjid, is an attempt to unite the fragmented Muslim voters and Islamic parties. They have come together believing that Muslim voters play a decisive role in at least 140 seats. While India has about 12 per cent Muslims, Uttar Pradesh has an 18 per cent Muslim population.
With the possibility of alliances fading out fast in Uttar Pradesh, due to elect its new State Assembly in February next year, the focus has shifted to 'caste engineering'. The Bahujan Samaj Party, perceived as a party of Dalits ('lower' caste Hindus), has taken the lead in its effort to expand its base by promising tickets to 'higher' caste Brahmins.
With Muslim and 'backward classes' votes expected to be split due to the presence of so many parties championing their cause, the focus has quietly shifted to the Brahmins. The Brahmins had started drifting towards the Congress party following disenchantment with their most preferred Bharatiya Janata Party. Brahmins form a sizable portion of voters and wield some influence among other castes of Hindus. Their decision to back one alliance or the other may have considerable impact on the outcome of the elections. |
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