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| Drop in Infiltration likely to be temporary | | |
It is too early for India or for Jammu and Kashmir Government to feel elated over the reports suggesting decline in the rate of infiltration of militants from across the LOC.The Union Home Ministry has,in its report,confirmed that infiltration had come down but nothing definite can be said about the turn of events that may shape themselves in the near future.Security and intelligence agency experts are of the opinion that during the last over a decade the infiltration scenario has been fluctuating.It has been at times high rate and on other occasions there has been a marked decline. This depends ohe weather conditions and on the attitude of the agencies across the LOC.If it is hard winter with border routes buried under deep snow the rate of ingress goes down.However,such a situation does not remain permanent.On seve al occasions in the past 20 years militants have been seen skiing down the border slopes covered with snow.At one stage,between 1989 and
1994,there used to be a very high demand for the rubber shoes which were used by the infiltrators while crossing into Kashmir from across snow buried Kupwara,Keran,Machel and Tangdhar areas.On occasions militants used wooden sledges for negotiating with the steep slopes of the border that were covered under snow.These strategies were adopted toPakistan's state policy.It is in this connection that India has decided not to pull out BSF from the IB and some companies of the troops from the LOC because the drop in the level of infiltration may be a temporary phase.It is so because it may take another three weeks for the border routes to become passable after the snow completely melts in the border belts.May be drop in the rate of infiltration is a trick to motivate Delhi for resuming the bilateral dialogue.If it is so Islamabad has succeeded in its mission after Manmohan Singh agreed to reopen the channels of dialogue.(eom) send more man power to the rebel
outfits operating in Kashmir and for giving teeth to the armed campaign.They could adopt these tricks for pushing large groups of militants into Jammu and Kashmir because the entire LOC and the International Border had neither been fenced nor had additional companies of troops deployed to check ingress.During the last about 10 years the eight feet tall border fence has served as a major hurdle in the way of infiltrators.With the number of sensors and gadgets installed on the border having been increased infiltration is no longer an easy exercise.It is because of this that small groups of militants,three to seven,attempt at crossing into Jammu and Kashmir. As the level of ingress goes down the rate of violence too declines.The Union Home Ministry is right when it announced that it will not withdraw BSF from the 187-km long international Border in the Jammu sector even if Pakistan had shifted about one lakh troops from the eastern sector for
deployment
in the tribal areas where Islamabad is engaged in a severe military campaign against the Talibans.For India it is immaterial whether Pakistan deploys additional troops or withdraws a sizeable number of the forces from the border because infiltration is not linked with such deployment or withdrawal.Even if the LOC and the IB have heavy Pak deployment agencies engaged in pushing infiltrators into Jammu and Kashmir face no problem as long as infiltration continues to be Pakistan's state policy.May be drop in the level of infiltr ation could be a t rick to motivate Delhi to resume bilateral dialogue.It it is so Islamabad has succeeded in its mission because Manmohan Singh announced to r eopen the channels ot dialogue.(eom)
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