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| Omar Gets to Meet Obama, Who Says Nothing on Kashmir | | | Col ® Anil Bhat | 11/9/2010 10:51:36 PM |
| By being the only chief minister to be invited for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s dinner for the visiting US President Barack Obama, Mr. Omar Abdullah got his much hoped for opportunity to meet him and Mrs. Michelle Obama. While whatever may have been part of their conversation, the fact remains that in all the public speaking that Mr. Obama did in Mumbai or New Delhi, which included a reasonably strong reference to Pakistan and terrorist groups there, he did not utter the word ‘Kashmir’.
Beginning his India tour by landing in Mumbai, staying at the Taj, having a meeting at the Gateway of India and both Mr. and Mrs. Obama interacting and even dancing with children, that too Mrs Obama dancing to the song Rang de Basanti, all amount to making a major symbolic statement. And even if it was a public relations bonanza conceived by the President’s spin doctors, there should be no doubt about a strong message conveyed.
Mr. Abdullah and the separatists will be well advised to introspect on the dynamics of the progressing India-US relationship and the kind of role Pakistan is playing in Afghanistan with the US. They must remember how badly Kashmir Valley suffered for at least a decade and a half at the hands of Pakistan’s military, which is again trying all out to drag it back to the brink.
People of the Valley must not allow themselves to be duped by separatists about US support or assistance in India and Pakistan resolving Kashmir, as there are many issues US has to deal separately with both countries at different levels.
There is no doubt about Mr Obama’s visit making a quantum improvement in India-US ties since his assuming charge, but there are still major issues that remain irksome to India and not without good reasons.
Removing Indian Space Research Organisation, Defence Research and Development Organisation and Bharat Dynamics Limited from US’ ‘blacklist’ too is most welcome, but quite overdue, considering the kind and level of strategic cooperation, which also involves trying to sell a substantial package of systems without guarantees of sustenance.
Access to Daood Gilani, alias David Coleman Headley, the Pakiatani American double agent / Lashjar e Tayyaba (LeT) specialist too came rather too late and quite obviously as a pre-visit sop.
As television networks went gaga with some repeated visuals, not to miss the one about his left-handed, reversed pen style of writing, obvious implying what all he will sign during this tour, anchors kept panel discussants embroiled on what Mr Obama will or will not do or should or should not do.
While it has been reported that a number of deals have been signed during this visit, there are some which have been long pending. Barely a week ago, national security advisor Shivshankar Menon interacting with media about certain these agreements pending since three years or so, had stated “These are something brand new for us. We are not used to dealing with such agreements. We have to see whether this is a feasible route,” The agreements he was referring to are the Logistics Support Agreement (LSA), Communication and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA), Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for geo-spatial cooperation (BECA) are crucial for the execution of defence deals between the two countries. Lockheed Martin and Boeing are in the fray for the world’s single-largest $12-billion defence deal for supplying 126 fighter jets, F-16 and F-18, to the Indian Air Force .
While American defence manufacturers have been looking forward to this visit, with the hope that Mr. Obama seals billion dollar deals, New Delhi, which, for three years has refused to sign these pacts necessary for implementation of sales, is not expected to do so now owing to apprehensions about them having an adverse impact on its other allies like Russia . While the LSA will facilitate Indian and American forces, aircraft and ships to logistics support from each others’ bases, CISMOA will enable transfer of high technology.. Featuring in all India-US high level interactions mainly at the behest of US defence secretary Robert Gates, the issue again figured prominently in defence minister AK Antony’s talks with his hosts in Washington in early October this year.
A major prickly issue, which India should have raised effectively during this visit, albeit behind closed doors, is the Obama Administration’s massive aid to Pakistan, including weapons not required for fight terrorism and its Af-Pak policy.
During a White House briefing along with visiting Russian President Dmitry Medvedev President, in June this year, Mr. Obama’s had said: “The reason we’re there (in Afghanistan ) in the first place is because 3,000 Americans were killed from an attack launched in that region. We are not going to have that repeated…In order to achieve that, we have to make sure that we have a stable Afghan government, and we also have to make sure that we’ve got a Pakistani government that is working effectively with us to dismantle these networks”. And that is exactly what Pakistan Army, which calls the shots / shadow-runs the government in Pakistan and has its terror network deployed/linkages with Taliban in Afghanistan , is not doing. Not only is it indirectly responsible for thousands of American and other coalition countries’ soldiers being killed, but will continue to be the cause of further casualties in the future. With, whatever Mr Obama has said, Pakistan so far remains a hot favourite of his administration, getting even F-16 fighter aircraft and drones, after getting many other weapon systems, including a number of which are not required for its counter-terrorism operations, but which are additions to its anti-India arsenal.
Regarding how President Obama’s Af-Pak policy has fared so far, it will be relevant to note the graph of US Army’s fatal casualties in Afghanistan, which, from 2001 till 2010 are 12, 49, 48, 52, 99, 98, 117, 155, 317 in 2009 and 261 in half of 2010. And interestingly, out of these figures, the number of deaths caused by indigenous explosive devices (IEDs) shoots up significantly from 2008, i.e. 152 out of 155 in 2008, 275 out of 317 in 2009 and 210 out of 261 in 2010 so far. This pattern is a major indication of an increase in numbers of terrorists, extension of their intelligence and reach and thereby expansion of their areas of domination. This could not have happened without substantial assistance from ISI – be it its serving or retired operatives or both. Yet, large amounts of American taxpayers’ money is being given – that too during a period of recession - to Pakistan, whose Army is known to be the very cause of many US and other ISAF armies’ personnel dying and getting maimed. It remains to be seen how far US will go in indulging Pakistan and for how long.
The latest, in October this year is the Obama administration pledging to raise its military aid to Pakistan to $2 billion a year - a total increase of $10 billion over five years - to help the country fight extremism, even as US State Department officials are reported to have said that aid will be denied to any Pakistani army units linked to human rights abuses. The aid pledge, announced by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, provides a long-term U.S. security commitment along the lines of the five-year, $7.5 billion civilian aid package for Pakistan approved by Congress last year. Ms. Clinton reportedly said that the Obama administration will ask Congress for $2 billion in military aid for Pakistan for each year from 2012 to 2016. The annual pledges amount to a significant increase in the roughly $1.5 billion per year military aid provided to Pakistan in recent years, and give it an assurance of continuity in U.S. support.
Whether the Obamas’ Mumbai and Hotel Taj Mahal experience and maybe, a reminder of what happened there during this month two years ago, much like what happened on 9/11, make any difference as India feels it should, only time will tell. All I can say is that within the past week, neither Brookings’ Stephen Cohen, nor General Sir Rupert Smith (retd), British Army, attending the National Defence College Golden Jubilee seminar, both of who I asked for comments about Pakistan’s role as US’ ally in Afghanistan, totally avoided uttering the words ‘Pakistan’ and ‘terrorists’. Also a question I have asked a number of times and which came up again in television discussions during this visit was ‘what will India’s reaction be to another repeat of 26/11?’ US must dwell seriously on how it will react to another 26/11 on its soil. Because the arsenal and reach of same LeT, which is wrecking havoc in Kashmir and other parts of India, have grown much, thanks again to Pakistan’s military.
Coming back to Mr Abdullah’s meeting with Mr Obama, he must concentrate on governance, consolidating the situation in Kashmir Valley and trying to maintain peace. He must not delude the people of the State with unfounded expectations and what he and the separatists are projecting as convenient interpretations of what was publicly Mr. Obama said or not said during his significant visit to India. He must be clear about Pakistan’s agenda on Kashmir, which does not at all bode well for its people. And another very important aspect Mr Abdullah must bear in mind is the goodwill of the people of Jammu region which he has enjoyed, even when all over the Valley and many at the Centre felt he was misgoverning or not governing at all. That support may drop drastically if he continues to pursue or support separatist ideologies.
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