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Surveillance on MLAs raised to fail horse trading
Phones being tapped, bank accounts monitored, movement watched
4/4/2011 11:01:04 AM

Ahmed Ali Fayyaz

JAMMU, Apr 3: Government has mobilized all available resources to prevent horse trading on one critical seat of Legislative Council in Jammu as telephones of most of the opposition leaders are being tapped, movements watched and bank transactions monitored. In the
six-yearly elections for six vacancies on April 13th, the NC-Congress ruling coalition is sure to win four seats---two each in Kashmir andJammu---and lose one to PDP in the Valley. However, the real contest would be on the 6th seat in Jammu where there is a great scope of
horse trading and cross-voting.
Government agencies, according to well placed authoritative sources, are currently busy in plugging all loopholes to ensure that the uncertain seat in Jammu went in the NC’s basket. Even as the coalition is confidently banking on three of its “associate members”, namely Charanjit Singh, Tsetan Namgyal and Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami, efforts are underway to win over two more of the lot---Hakeem Mohammad Yasin and Engineer Sheikh Abdul Rasheed---who have been almost publicly expressing their disenchantment with Omar Abdullah’s government.
Coalition present strength in the electoral college is 48---NC 30, Congress 17 and Minister incharge Agriculture Ghulam Hassan Mir. Since the voters would have to be divided at the rate of 24 for each of thetwo unreserved seats in Jammu, a combination of PDP (21) and National
Panthers Party (3) would mean trouble for the NC. This is exactly where the six independent members, including Ashwani Kumar of Jammu State Morcha, would play the pivotal role. And again, this is where cross-voting by two or three members of BJP would turn the tables.
Even if all five of the coalition’s “associate members” are taken for granted, the coalition would have to keep 27 votes for Yeshpal Khajuria of Congress on one of the two unreserved seats in Jammu and 26 for NC’s Master Noor Hussain on the most critical seat. In other
words, PDP and NPP would be in need of just three votes to defeat the NC in Jammu. There are wide speculations of horse trading as the PDP candidate Bharat Bhushan has been introduced as the richest of all contestants. Besides, NPP has a glaring constraint of voting against
the Congress candidate who has been arch rival of Prof Bhim Singh’s party in Udhampur and Reasi districts.
The ruling coalition floor managers are, nevertheless, confident of victory on both the unreserved seats in Jammu. While the government agencies have begun close monitoring of the movement of all “high focus MLAs”, besides certain bank accounts and telephonic communications, at least four from BJP are said to have assured clandestine support to the NC candidate. The coalition managers are largely counting on these four “bonus votes” on account of a deluge of
favours, both personal and political, showered on them in recent times. Jammu has a history of horse trading and cross-voting as one of the NC’s candidates in previous Legislative Council elections became” famous” for purchasing as many as eight MLAs. Sources said that in addition to the ruling coalition, Election Commission of India was keeping its own eye on the candidates and the voters who had indications of horse trading in the current electoral process.
Numerically, PDP alone would be a gainer as its strength would increase by a minimum of one and maximum of two seats. It has a sure seat in Kashmir, besides 50:50 prospects on a seat in Jammu. In case it clinched two seats, it would come as a major setback for NC,
reducing its strength from 14 to 12 and increasing that of PDP from 3 to 5. Congress, by all indications, would remain static at 13.
Presently, NC has 14 members in Legislative Council, Congress 13, PDP 3 and NPP one.

By virtue of the coalitions assumed strength of 53, NC had two sure seats in Kashmir. Similarly Congress has a sure seat in unreserved Jammu seats besides the coalition’s safest seat in reserved Poonch.
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