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| India on al Queda’s strategic radar | | | Jasbir Sarai | 5/7/2011 12:10:46 AM |
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Osama bin Laden is finally dead, after a long, debilitating manhunt and a full-fledged war which has taken lakhs of innocent lives over a decade. In its euphoria the world has conveniently forgotten that the number of people who have died to avenge the 9/11 terrorist attack far exceeds the number killed in the incident itself. Even in his death bin Laden has achieved his most cherished desire of dying in the hands of Americans and thus becoming a martyr for all times to come. His biggest legacy is the germination of the idea for Islamic resurrection which will stay on for a long time, so the battle may be over but the crusade will go on.
It is now time to sit down and logically analyse the effect of this development on the Indian security scenario. It is being universally recognised that al Queda continues to remain a force to reckon with despite the elimination of its most enduring icon. The world has to remain prepared for a possible backlash. As things stand at the moment, even though the organisation has not been able to establish a presence in India, it cannot be taken for granted that a status quo will be maintained.
Bin Laden was totally absorbed in his hatred for the US. He spread himself in all those places where the US was engaged with the Muslim community - mainly the Middle East and Africa. The Kashmir conflict and India were mentioned in a number of statements since the 1990s, but with little follow-up to the threats. Thus, in his hey days bin Laden ignored India and by the time he was ready to extend himself he had become a fugitive due to the Us attack on Afghanistan.
The Afghan War led bin Laden towards seeing some benefit in arousing Islamic sentiment in India. Pitting India against Pakistan was a win–win strategy for reducing pressure of the Pakistani forces along the Afghanistan border and simultaneously unfolding the flag of Islam in hitherto uncharted territories. At that stage al Queda opened communication with a number of terror groups operating in Kashmir, especially Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Harakat-ul-Jihad al-Islami (HUJI). It is no wonder that Hafiz Mohd Saeed, the leader of LeT has openly held a funeral service for bin Laden in Pakistan. Al Qaeda started perceiving unrest in Kashmir as a "god-gifted" opportunity for its Ghazwa-e-Hind operations. Its overall strategy encompassed initiation of low-intensity insurgency in India's heartlands with is firm base in Kashmir. Once inside, al Queda had plans of working in tandem with groups like the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) to give impetus to the movement.
The Pakistani Army and ISI were only too happy to oblige since the situation was unfolding in a manner favourable to Pakistan’s objective of “privatising” the war in Kashmir and denying official government responsibility in the violence over there. Al Queda and its newly created affiliates started functioning seamlessly in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.
Al Qaeda is said to have announced a new branch, Al Qaeda in Kashmir (AQK) in June 2010 to be led by Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri, a Pakistan Occupied Kashmir born terrorist of international credentials who has been involved with the Afghanistan Taliban and HUJI in Bangladesh apart from a strong presence in Kashmir and the Indian hinterland. With Ilyas Kashmiri on board, al Queda finally managed to fill its leadership void in Kashmir and onwards into India. He brings with him an awesome capability to coordinate activities of the al Queda with the Taliban, the Kashmir/India specific ISI sponsored terrorist groups like LeT and JeM and the harbingers of terrorism in Kashmir. With bin Laden gone, Kashmiri will move up in the hierarchy of the organisation and his interest will be predominantly focused on Kashmir and onwards to India.
There are reports that the LeT, may emerge as a new global actor working in collaboration with al-Qaeda. Compounding these fears is evidence that LeT’s ideological and operational focus is now well beyond the liberation of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), it now nurtures Pan Indian and even global ambitions.
Contrary to popular belief, funding for al Qaeda operations has not been coming from the personal assets of bin Laden since a long time. It is being raised through financial facilitators who channelise money collected by imams at Mosques, in the form of Zakat, from rich countries like Saudi Arabia. In any case the ISI will be only too willing to finance any such force which, it feels, has the capability of keeping the pot boiling in Kashmir and extending into the Indian hinterland for good measure. Finances are not likely to curtail al Queda’s engagement of Kashmir and India.
Kashmir has remained quite ambivalent post the assassination of bin Laden. No protests or eulogies have been reported, thus indicating that the Kashmiri people do not relate with the al Queda. However, al Queda can be assured of the political support of the likes of Syed Ali Shah Geelani who has already fired the first salve by referring to bin Laden as, ”a martyr who died fighting US oppression in Afghanistan". "He was a symbol of resistance against the US and he was martyred while defending the Muslims." said the octogenarian separatist.
Now is the time to look to the future, India has made all the right noises about Pakistan having been exposed as a sanctuary for terror but now we have to translate perception into strategy. The war mongers looking for a US type of engagement by India within Pakistan forget that the latter has the capability of retaliating against us with terrible nuclear force, whereas they cannot even touch the shores of the US, our response has to be different, more structured, well thought out and in tune with ground realities.
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